- Brock Purdy‘s low ceiling: Purdy finished just two of his six regular season games as a top 10 fantasy quarterback, but his ceiling is capped significantly, as he’s never exceeded 16 rushing yards in a single game.
- Breece Hall coming off an injury: Dalvin Cook‘s visit to the New York Jets brings into question how productive Hall will be coming off his torn ACL.
- D.K. Metcalf‘s competition for targets: Metcalf’s upside is through the roof, but his volatility paired with the fact that he’ll see more competition for targets than ever before is enough to force me out on his WR12 cost.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
As we continue to inch closer to the 2023 NFL season with training camps in full swing, the fantasy football landscape is finally coming into focus. Every player will have their price in fantasy drafts but not all will generate suitable returns based on where you’ll need to draft them.
Here, we’ll take a look at five overvalued players to avoid in 2023 fantasy football drafts based on their current ADP.
All ADP comes courtesy of ESPN.
QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Current ADP: QB22
The 49ers quarterback controversy isn’t much of a controversy anymore since Mr. Irrelevant made himself relevant to close out the 2022 season. An elbow injury in the NFC Championship Game ended his season prematurely, but before it did, he was on an absolute tear, throwing for two or more passing touchdowns in seven straight games. He was the pinnacle of efficiency, throwing touchdowns at an absurd 7.6% clip. Even though Purdy’s ADP at QB22 feels reasonable based on his production, there are some concerns he won’t live up to the hype with just how much of his production came on the back of that efficiency. Purdy finished just two of his six regular season games as a top 10 fantasy quarterback, but his ceiling is capped significantly, as he’s never exceeded 16 rushing yards in a single game.
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets
Current ADP: RB12
Free agent RB Dalvin Cook spent the weekend visiting the Jets, attending the team’s training camp practice on Sunday with Jets owner Woody Johnson. He hasn’t yet signed a deal, but even if he doesn’t, the team’s willingness to entertain the signing has me concerned for Hall going into his second season. Hall is returning from a torn ACL suffered in Week 7, and though reports have been positive regarding his rehab, it’s clear that the team has no plans to overwork him from the jump. Hall’s pricetag at RB12 would be more than appropriate if there weren’t concerns that he would see a reduced workload to start the season, but unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be the case if the Jets are even entertaining the idea of adding another superstar to the mix.
RB Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Current ADP: RB10
Etienne’s burst is off the charts, and so is the upside for this Jaguars offense with the addition of WR Calvin Ridley. However, that might not be enough to justify his RB10 price tag based on his potential for competition in the backfield with rookie RB Tank Bigsby and competition for targets with the Ridley addition.
The team drafted Bigsby in the third round this year, whose 90.7 rushing grade ranked 16th among running backs while averaging 5.5 yards per carry and 4.16 yards after contact per attempt in his final season with Auburn. By all accounts, reports out of training camp have indicated that Etienne’s still “the man,” but Bigsby has been the recipient of some glowing reviews. In 2022, Etienne’s 43 red zone carries and 13 carries inside the five both ranked top-10 in the league, but Bigsby’s 6 feet and 210-pound frame could earn him some of those valuable touches.
In 2022, Etienne’s 11.04 fantasy points per game ranked 27th among running backs, with his 0.31 fantasy points per snap and 0.81 fantasy points per touch both ranking outside of the top 30. His 7.8% target share to open his career was also a bit of a disappointment considering his involvement as a frequent target of Trevor Lawrence, and certainly, the addition of Ridley this offseason and returns of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram will only generate more competition. All things considered, it’s difficult to get on board with Etienne as an RB1 in 2023 — even if the burst and talent are there.
WR D.K Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Current ADP: WR12
Maybe Metcalf’s WR12 ADP would feel a lot more palatable if it weren’t for his teammate, Tyler Lockett, being drafted all the way down at WR29. Metcalf saw a career-high 141 targets in 2022, catching 90 of them for 1,048 receiving yards and six touchdowns. However, despite that volume, he wasn’t overly efficient, with a career-low 11.8 yards per reception on his 12.2 aDOT (average depth of target). His 78.7 receiving grade ranked 25th among wide receivers — his lowest receiving grade since his rookie season in 2019, sitting as the WR27 in fantasy points per game.
Adding further insult to injury, the Seahawks selected Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th overall pick, who figures to be an immediate contributor from the slot, in addition to RB Zach Charbonnet (52nd overall), whose 77.2 receiving grade ranked 17th among RBs in the Power Five in 2022. Metcalf’s upside is through the roof, but his volatility paired with the fact that he’ll see more competition for targets than ever before is enough to force me out on his WR12 cost.
TE Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
Current ADP: TE9
The Steelers have a big problem, and that problem goes by the name of “Matt Canada,” who’s returning for his third season with the team in 2023. While QB Kenny Pickett looks to make a second-year leap, Canada's play calling could be just the thing to hold him back. Though Freiermuth’s 78.3 PFF receiving grade ranked ninth among tight ends in the 2022 season (min. 10 targets), the execution of the offense and Pickett’s 1.8% touchdown rate are concerning for his upside.
Freiermuth’s best chance at living up to his ADP will come by way of scoring touchdowns, but even in the red zone, it stands to reason he’ll have some competition. The Steelers drafted TE Darnell Washington in the fourth round, who could also pose a threat for targets, with his 6-foot-7, 264-pound frame and 11-inch hands providing Pickett with a solid (and very large) target in the end zone.
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