Fantasy Football: Rookie running back prospect model

Ashton Jeanty might be the best running back prospect in recent years: A truly generational prospect, Jeanty joins elite company on a path to be a locked-in RB1 for fantasy football.
Cam Skattebo deserves more respect in consensus ranks: PFF’s RB3 only comes in as RB6 on consensus draft boards, but all signs point to a back capable of delivering high-end production for the position.
2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF's best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.

Estimated reading time: 13 minutes

NFL draft season is in full swing, which naturally comes with a plethora of ways to evaluate potential talent coming out of college with the potential to translate to the next level. This article series is no different, as we’ll add a fantasy football spin to the evaluation process to identify which incoming prospects have a shot to become fantasy-relevant early on in their NFL careers.

Next up is the running back position for fantasy football, where volume is king and draft capital often reigns supreme when it comes to prospects – as is typically the case with every position. Through years of data collection and analysis to understand which metrics correlate best to NFL success for college prospects, this prospect model takes into account the key factors and metrics for each player to devise a prospect score. Like with any position, there is not one metric that will tell us whether a college prospect will be good or not in the NFL, but the purpose of this model is to combine the metrics and factors that data has proven to be the most relevant while providing weight to those that are more important than others.

For the running back position, in no particular order, we’re looking at career rushing grades, career production, key elusive metrics, level of competition faced and draft capital, among a few others.

Keys

The prospect pool for this model consists of 253 running back prospects dating back to 2017.
29 running backs drafted since 2017 have become a top-12 PPR finisher for their position at least once (11.5%).
53 running backs drafted since 2017 have become a top-24 PPR finisher for their position at least once (20.9%).
70 running backs drafted since 2017 have become a top-36 PPR finisher for their position at least once (27.7%).
This is an important context when understanding hit rates as many more prospects will not become fantasy-relevant than most given such a large pool of players.
However, using this model, the higher the prospect score, the better the success rate will be for each prospect, as highlighted below.

With all this in mind, it’s time to look at this year’s running back prospects to identify our future fantasy football contributors. It should also be noted that these scores should not necessarily be used so much as your rankings as they should be more of a guide toward the quality of the player. Draft capital and landing spot can and will play a big part of actual rankings.

The 2025 Running Back Class

ASHTON JEANTY, BOISE STATE

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 7th overall

Jeanty debuts as the top overall scorer in this prospect model dating back to 2017, putting him in elite company as a run-away favorite to return top-12 fantasy value early and often in his NFL career.
The top 95th percentile success rates are highlighted in the image above, however, for those among the true elite – the 98th percentile and higher – Jeanty joins six other running back prospects, including Bijan Robinson, Travis Etienne, Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris, Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey.
Every single one of those running backs has finished top-three in PPR at least once in their NFL careers.
While there is no such thing as a perfect prospect, and anything can happen to lead to a player busting, fantasy managers should feel incredibly comfortable investing in Jeanty as about as “can’t-miss” of a running back prospect as there’s been in recent years.

OMARION HAMPTON, NORTH CAROLINA

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 31st overall

While Jeanty is the most treasured prize of this running back prospect pool, Hampton isn’t too far behind, as he makes his push to be a potential late-first-round pick.
As a 95th percentile prospect, Hampton joins by far the best cohort for top-12 success rate (83.3%), and the lone exceptions in this regard were Javonte Williams, who still found top-24 success as a rookie before suffering a significant injury, and Rashaad Penny, who just never panned out.
Hampton is likely to get ideal draft capital for the position and should land on a roster that is primed to utilize him as a volume-heavy back with a great shot to turn into a future top-12 fantasy running back, with his floor being that of an RB2.

TREVEYON HENDERSON, OHIO STATE

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 45th overall

Henderson is currently the RB3 in this class according to consensus draft boards at the moment, and is still among the top-five in the class according to this model as a 94th percentile prospect, just missing out on that ideal 95th percentile range.
While the success rates for players in the larger 90th percentile cohort drops a fair bit for potential top-12 running backs, it is still a great group to be a part of, with several other past RB1 finishers, including Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, Nick Chubb Josh Jacobs and Kareem Hunt.
There are a few other Day 2 busts in that range, including Derrius Guice and Trey Sermon, but for the most part, this is a group that will be fantasy-relevant at some point in their careers, which is worth investing in when it comes time for our rookie drafts.
With a greater than 50% shot at top-12 potential, Henderson should be locked into the top five of rookie running back rankings regardless of landing spot coming out of the draft.

QUINSHON JUDKINS, OHIO STATE

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 55th overall

Henderson’s Ohio State teammate, Judkins, is right there with him when it comes to this prospect model, thanks to a few metrics where Judkins has been better than his teammate, which should push to go in the second round as well.
Judkins doesn’t have the receiving profile that PPR managers might hope for, and there are a few similar non-top-12 finishers in this range of prospects who boasted similar concerns as Judkins with a YPRR total lower than 0.90, and target per route run total below 0.15.
Running back prospects with an 80th percentile prospect score or higher with a target per route run mark below 0.15 and YPRR total below 0.90 includes Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet, A.J. Dillon, Ronald Jones, Devin Singletary Kendre Miller and Jaylen Wright.
While all but Miller and Wright have found success as top-36 PPR running backs – Walker, Dillon, and Singletary all cracked the top-24 at least once – none have been able to return top-12 PPR value so far.
This points to a limit to the ceiling of potential fantasy production for a prospect with a less-than-ideal receiving profile as they may not be able to contribute as a workhorse back, though still not impossible.

KALEB JOHNSON, IOWA

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 67th overall

In a similar boat as the previously mentioned Quinshon Judkins, Johnson also falls under that cohort of running back prospects with a less-than-ideal receiving profile, though his overall rushing metrics and draft capital projection also push his score a little further down, though still in a good range for usable fantasy potential.
Johnson offers solid numbers as an elusive running back, though there isn’t anything individually that he does much better than anyone else in the consensus top-five, or even some names outside that range, to make him a lock to be a top-five rookie running back before or after the NFL draft.
One of Johnson's data knocks for running backs among the top 75th percentile of prospects since 2017 is a poor explosive run rate (14.7%), ranking among the bottom 13th percentile of all prospects.
For other top 75th percentile prospects with an explosive run rate below 15%, it isn’t a death knell, as Breece Hall and David Montgomery both own top-12 finishes in their NFL careers with that low rate of explosive plays, while the others include Clyde Edwards-Helaire, A.J. Dillon, Jonathon Brooks, Brian Robinson Jr., Cam Akers, Blake Corum, Ke’Shaw n Vaughn, Kerryon Johnson, Ray Davis and Roschon Johnson.
Again, it’s not a total death knell for running back prospects to deliver fantasy value, but a lack of explosiveness could, at the very least, limit a player’s success in fantasy and the NFL.

CAMERON SKATTEBO, ARIZONA STATE

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 79th overall

Skattebo coming in as RB6 on the consensus draft boards stands out as the clear top value for this class when considering the high-end college production, and elite prospect score.
The PFF big board at least gives Skattebo his due, ranking him as RB3 for this class, which makes a lot more sense considering the profile than falling outside of the top five.
Among running backs in the top 95th percentile of this prospect model, Skattebo is currently projected to have the lowest draft capital of the bunch.
Everything about his college prospect profile points to him being a second-round pick, including a 97th percentile mark in missed tackles forced per attempt, 97th percentile career production (rushing plus receiving) and a 99th percentile career rushing grade.
As mentioned earlier, one or two individual metrics won’t make or break a player’s fantasy potential once they get to the NFL, as nothing is guaranteed, though Skattebo’s encouraging combination of metrics that matter make him the best projected third-round back in recent years, assuming that capital remains the same.

DYLAN SAMPSON, TENNESSEE

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 91st overall

Sampson leads this next group of 2025 running back prospects on the fringe of being Day 2 or Day 3 picks, which could go either way depending on how teams view them.
For Sampson, he doesn’t necessarily stand out as the best of that bunch, which comes with the nature of being that fringe Day 2 or Day 3 prospect because there’s a much wider range of possibilities, as he’s also on the fringes of prospect score for players who found fantasy success as third-round picks.
Of the nine third-round picks or later scoring in the 80th to 85th percentile of prospects, five have managed at least a top-36 PPR fantasy finish (55.6%), with four of those five managing top-24 finishes (44.4%).
Those success rates drop when looking at third-round or later prospects who score between the 75th and 80th percentile, where of the 10 prospects in that cohort, four have found at least top-36 fantasy success (40.0%); however, De’Von Achane and Rachaad White are two of those four and they each have a top-12 finish to their names already, so again, Sampson has wide range of outcomes. Even if the high-end outcomes are rare, they still exist for his prospect score.

BHAYSHUL TUTEN, VIRGINIA TECH

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 101st overall

Virginia Tech’s Tuten stands out as one of the most elusive backs in this year’s class, earning a top 96th percentile mark in missed tackles forced per attempt while adding a 91st percentile mark in yards after contact per attempt as well.
Tuten’s high-end rushing profile pushes his score ahead of even those ranked ahead of him on the consensus boards, including Kaleb Johnson and Dylan Sampson, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him earn higher marks on certain team boards, depending on what they’re looking for in a running back.
For Tuten, he offers ideal size and speed for the position, even posting a 4.38-second 40-yard dash time at the NFL combine last month.
Tuten’s speed translates to his data as well, earning an 80th percentile explosive run rate (18.1%) among this prospect pool, where 18 other backs who owned an 80th percentile mark or better in explosive run rate and at least 80th percentile in prospect score exist.
Of those 18 backs, 14 have finished as at least top-24 fantasy backs (77.8%), while nine have reached that ideal top-12 finish (50%) at least once in their fantasy careers.
This is a much more optimistic outlook for Tuten than the general success rates for his prospect score listed in the image above, though again, the model takes into account much more for Tuten’s outlook.

DEVIN NEAL, KANSAS

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 121st overall

Neal is one of the most productive backs in this year’s class, delivering over 5,000 scrimmage yards for his college career, which puts him in the 94th percentile of prospects since 2017 in that regard as well.
Neals has also delivered 32 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons alone and has steadily gotten better in terms of PFF grades, culminating in a 90.5 rushing grade in 2024, which helped him deliver his 89th-percentile career rushing grade mark.
Neal is going a full round’s worth of picks after Kaleb Johnson, who scores similarly in this prospect model, which makes Neal an intriguing sleeper for this class as a Day 3 pick.
Neal is still just 21 years old, as is Johnson, and while Johnson slightly outscores Neal in terms of some of the elusive metrics, Neal arguably has the better overall profile when considering his overall production, rushing grades, and receiving profile.
As far as prospects with similar scores in this model who were also drafted outside the top 100 picks, it’s a slightly less favorable outlook, as nine of 16 backs (Isaiah Davis, Ray Davis, Zamir White, Pierre Strong Jr., Audric Estime, Isaiah Spiller, Kimani Vidal, and Roschon Johnson) haven't become consistent fantasy options.
On the plus side, six of 16 prospects drafted outside the top 100 earned a prospect score between the 77th and 70th percentile, including Rhamondre Stevenson, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Dameon Pierce, Bucky Irving and Tyler Allgeier, as all managed at least top-36 PPR finishes, while the first three all found top-12 success.

DJ GIDDENS, KANSAS STATE

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 122nd overall

Giddens, like Neal, offers a similarly optimistic outlook for a Day 3 pick, as he just barely cracks the top 80th percentile, which makes him the running back with the lowest projected draft capital (122nd overall) in that cohort.
While Giddens didn’t set a new career-high in rushing grade in his final season, like Neal, he still found a way to increase his efficiency in terms of yards per carry (6.5) and yards after contact per attempt (4.16), which helped his career metrics stay above average.
Giddens also offers a solid receiving profile to go along with a 4.48-second 40-time speed, which translates to his explosiveness ranking among the 70th percentile of prospects in this pool.
As mentioned before, Giddens owns the lowest projected draft capital for prospects in this 80th percentile range, and even for those ranked between the 85th and 75th percentile, the average draft pick rank is 90th overall for those players, which could make him a value in the NFL Draft and dynasty rookie drafts should he fall to Day 3.