Fantasy Football IDP: Rookie edge defender prospect model

Abdul Carter joins elite company as a prospect: The Penn State EDGE owns the ideal path to success as an IDP thanks to his dominant college career.
Red flags emerge: Beware of the athletic prospects who didn't record strong pass-rush metrics, such as potential first-round picks Mykel Williams and Shemar Stewart.
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Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

NFL draft season is in full swing, which naturally comes with a plethora of ways to evaluate potential talent coming out of college. This article series is no different, as we’ll add a fantasy football spin to the evaluation process in order to identify which incoming prospects have a shot to become fantasy-relevant early on in their NFL careers.

Starting with the edge position for the purposes of IDP fantasy football, I have created a prospect model that takes into account the most important factors and metrics to a player realizing relevant IDP success in the NFL. Like with any position, no one metric will tell us whether a college prospect will be good or not in the NFL, but the purpose of this model is to combine the metrics and factors that data has proven to be most relevant, providing weight to those that are more important than others.

For the edge position, in no particular order, we’re looking at PFF pass-rush grades, pass-rush win rate, pressure rate, run-defense grades, draft capital, athleticism and level of competition faced. There is some weight to one-year numbers, though the most stable metrics with the most weight applied when it comes to underlying metrics are career numbers. Underlying metrics were also found to be much more reliable than overall production when accounting for all prospects. While production often comes with strong underlying metrics, one can exist without the other, and the underlying metrics have a better success rate than overall production alone.

Keys

The prospect pool for this model consists of 324 edge prospects dating back to 2016.
25 edges drafted since 2016 have become a top-12 IDP finisher for their position at least once (7.7%).
46 edges drafted since 2016 have become a top-24 IDP finisher for their position at least once (14.2%).
67 edges drafted since 2016 have become a top-36 IDP finisher for their position at least once (20.1%).
This is an important context when understanding hit rates as many more prospects will not become fantasy-relevant than most given such a large pool of players.
However, using this model, the higher the prospect score, the better the success rate will be for each prospect, as highlighted below.

With all this in mind, it’s time to look at this year’s edge prospects to identify our future IDP contributors. It should also be noted that these scores should not necessarily be used so much as your rankings, as they should be more of a guide toward the quality of the player. Draft capital and landing spot can and will play a big part in actual rankings.

The 2025 EDGE Class

ABDUL CARTER, PENN STATE

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 2nd overall

Carter is the top-ranked defensive lineman on the consensus big boards, which is backed up by his elite prospect score placing him in the 99th percentile among edge prospects since 2016.
Among that top 99th percentile range, five other players are included along with Carter – Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Myles Garrett, Aidan Hutchinson and Will Anderson.
Chase Young is the biggest miss from that group, though he at least has a top-24 IDP finish in his career.
Both Hutchinson and Anderson have yet to reach that top-12 finish that Bosa and Garrett have achieved (multiple times), but based on their early NFL careers, they are on pace to get there.
This is elite company for Carter to be considered in, and while it’s not a guarantee that he will return that value, he has as good of a shot to do so as any prospect in recent years.

MYKEL WILLIAMS, GEORGIA

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 13th overall

Williams’ supposed athleticism is what pushes him inside the top-15 potential picks in this year’s draft, though there are a lot more red flags surrounding his profile than other highly-ranked edge prospects in 2025.
As noted in the image above, Williams joins a cohort of edge prospects who scored below a 60th percentile mark in this prospect model, where only 4% of 174 prospects have gone on to become top-12 fantasy finishers.
First and second-round prospects that scored 60th percentile or lower in this prospect model include:
Walker and Nwosu are the lone IDP successes from the bunch.

SHEMAR STEWART, TEXAS A&M

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 15th overall

Stewart, much like the previously mentioned Williams, is lifted into the first round of most mock drafts because of his athleticism and potential, but even with his athleticism baked into his prospect score, there’s enough concern that points to him needing time to develop in the NFL.
This isn’t unusual for high-end athletes at the position where we don’t have to look much further than Travon Walker – a former first-overall pick, who, while still developing in the NFL, has found success in IDP.
However, for every Walker, there are several other examples of players in this prospect score range who do not work out.
Here is the list of edge prospects drafted in the first two days of the NFL draft with at least a 9.30 relative athletic score who scored 65th percentile or lower in this model:
A good reminder that athleticism isn’t everything, as only Diaby, Ogbah, Ebukam, Carter and Walker have found fantasy success (at least top-36), typically not sustained success, while Walker is the lone top-12 finisher.

MIKE GREEN, MARSHALL

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 16th overall

Green isn’t projected to go as highly as Williams or Stewart right now, but all signs point to a player who should be in the conversation to go ahead of both of those players based on his prospect score.
Even accounting for Green spending almost all of his college career in the Group-of-Five conferences, he still comes out among the top prospects since 2016, using this model.
Green is the highest-rated edge who did not spent his entire college career in the Power Five conferences, as the only other top 95th percentile scorer was Jared Verse, who spent two of his four college seasons in the FCS before transferring to Florida State, and he just completed an excellent rookie season with a top-24 finish for his position.
Green is one of three edge defenders in this class to rank among the top 95th percentile in this model, where eight of the 15 prospects have finished as top-12 IDP scorers. The following is a list of those that haven’t (yet):
While that ship has likely sailed for Young, the rest all have a shot to get there sooner rather than later.
Green’s elite score and success rate probability are enough to make him a must-draft player for IDP rookie drafts this season.

JAMES PEARCE JR., TENNESSEE

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 17th overall

As mentioned above, the 2025 class boasts three edge prospects among the top 95th percentile, marking the third class since 2016 to do so, joining 2024 (Laiatu Latu, Chop Robinson, Jared Verse) and 2019 (Nick Bosa, Josh Hines-Allen, Montez Sweat).
Between Carter, Green, and Pearce, there is a very strong chance that IDP managers get at least one top-12 finisher from the bunch. At the very least, they have top-24 potential with all three ranking among the top-98th percentile and five of six past 98th percentile prospects all hit that mark.
Latu is the lone exception, though has only played one season.
All three of the elite scorers (Carter, Green, Pearce) should be drafted no later than Round 3 in IDP rookie drafts, and there’s a case for them to go much earlier depending on scoring and lineup requirements.

NIC SCOURTON, TEXAS A&M

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 32nd overall

Scourton is a fringe first-rounder based on consensus mock drafts, and for now, he just sneaks into that first day of the draft, though that could certainly change over the next few weeks.
Regardless of where he ends up being drafted, he’s unlikely to move too far from this 85th-90th percentile range in terms of prospect score. It’s an interesting range to be in because while there have been some fantasy-relevant performers, the only one to finish top-12 at their position for IDP was Joe Schobert, who had to convert to linebacker to make that happen.
That being said, top 36 is still about a 50/50 shot for the 85th to 90th percentile scorers, and there is a slight chance to increase that production to top 24 or higher.
Scourton isn’t necessarily a player who has to be drafted within the first four rounds of rookie drafts right now, especially if he falls out of the first round, but with a good landing spot, he becomes a lot more enticing.

DONOVAN EZEIRUAKU, BOSTON COLLEGE

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 32nd overall

Ezeiruaku, much like Scourton, is right on the fringe of that first/second round according to consensus boards, but unlike Scourton, Ezeiruaku doesn’t quite boast the prospect score to push him further up boards.
Ezeiruaku is one of the more experienced pass-rushers in this year’s class with over 1,000 pass-rush snaps to his name, and as a result, sack production has followed, as he’s delivered 26 sacks in his college career.
As pointed out earlier, sack production is often a fallacy for prospects coming out of college and into the NFL. It’s nice to have – and when paired with the right metrics, it can be nice to point to – but it isn’t important on its own.
When looking at the 39 edge rushers with at least 25 career college sacks, only six have finished as top-12 IDPs (15.4%), seven have finished top-24 (17.9%) and nine have finished top-36 (23.1%).
Four of the five edge rushers who finished top-12 also ranked among the 95th percentile in prospect score, and the lone exception is Trey Hendrickson (76th percentile), who didn’t reach the top-24 IDP scorers until Year 4 of his NFL career and wasn’t top 12 until Year 8.
All nine top-24 and top-36 combined IDP finishers with at least 25 career college sacks ranked among the top 90th percentile in prospect score, further cementing the fact that production needs to come with strong underlying metrics to matter.

JACK SAWYER, OHIO STATE

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 42nd overall

Sawyer is a likely second-round pick in the NFL draft, and one of the better bets going outside of the first round to provide IDP value, especially with a prime landing spot.
Sawyer has spent all four years of his collegiate career at Ohio State, serving as a full-time starter for the past two where he posted his most impressive marks that catapulted him to the 87th percentile of prospects.
Sawyer’s outlook based on his model score is almost identical to that of Nic Scourton (see above),
One of the bigger differences between the two is that Sawyer is not only capable of playing early downs and defending the run, but that was an area where he thrived in college, which bodes well for his IDP potential.
There have been nine edge prospects in the model since 2016 who scored at least an 85th percentile prospect score and at least a 90th percentile career run-defense grade.
Among that cohort, six (67%) have managed at least a top-36 finish for IDP so far (Nick Bosa, Will Anderson, Aidan Hutchinson, Joey Bosa, Kwity Paye, Harold Landry). Three of those nine players have managed a top-12 finish so far (33%), as both Hutchinson and Anderson knocked on that door as well, putting Sawyer in strong company, especially for a second-round pick.

LANDON JACKSON, ARKANSAS

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 46th overall

Jackson stands out as another ultra-athletic edge prospect in this year’s class, though there is a difference between being an athletic prospect without the pass-rush metrics to match.
Jackson owns some of the worst pass-rush metrics in this 2025 edge class, including the second-worst career pass-rush grade and win rate in addition to the worst pressure rate.
This places Jackson below the 50th percentile of prospects dating back to 2016, even when his elite 9.95 relative athletic score is factored in.
As highlighted with Shemar Stewart earlier, there are some IDP successes from the first two days of the NFL Draft with high-end athleticism and a lower prospect model score. Even if there are not many and even fewer high-end finishers among the group, that success rate drops even lower for prospects who score below the 50th percentile in this model.
Since 2016, there have been 20 edge prospects drafted who scored below the 50th percentile in prospect score and posted a relative athletic score (RAS) of 9.00 or higher. Only one managed a top-12 IDP finish so far in his career (Josh Sweat), and one other succeeded in delivering a top-24 finish (Byron Young).
Overall, that is technically a better outlook for success than Jackson’s overall profile, highlighted in the image above, but it’s still very poor.

PRINCELY UMANMIELEN, OLE MISS

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 50th overall

Lastly, to round out the top-10 projected edge defenders in the 2025 class, Umanmielen owns a much better prospect score than a lot of his Day 2 peers, finding himself in the 92nd percentile of prospects since 2016 using this model.
Umanmielen is a great example of college production matching the underlying metrics, which as highlighted earlier, has to be paired together if we’re going to point to college production mattering.
For Umanmielen, he joins 11 other edge prospects since 2016 who had at least 25 career sacks and scored in the 90th percentile for this model.
Of those 11 prospects, five of them have gone on to deliver at least a top-12 finish (45.5%), eight have at least finished top-24 (72.3%), and 10 have finished at least top-36 (90.9%).
The lone non-top-36 finisher is Laiatu Latu who has just one season’s worth of NFL experience so far.