Fantasy Football IDP: Rookie safety prospect model

The top safety spot in 2025 is as close as it gets: Both Malaki Starks and Nick Emmanwori share an identical prospect score among the top 95th percentile in this model.
Notre Dame’s Xavier Watts should not be overlooked: Watts isn’t likely to go first-round as two of his peers are, but he boasts a lot of encouraging metrics to be in that conversation as a player to monitor for IDP.
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Estimated reading time: 9 minutes

NFL draft season is in full swing, which naturally comes with a plethora of ways to evaluate potential talent coming out of college with the potential to translate to the next level. This article series is no different, as we’ll add a fantasy football spin to the evaluation process to identify which incoming prospects have a shot to become fantasy-relevant early on in their NFL careers.

The final position group that this model series will cover is the safeties, which is often one of the more volatile positions for IDP as there is so much dependence on usage and big plays, which tends to vary year-to-year for most players. This model has dug into the data to sort out what matters and doesn’t for NFL safety prospects and how effectively these things translate to IDP. As was the case with all the other positions covered, there is not one singular metric that will tell us who will have success and who won’t, and the combination of key metrics tends to have much better predictive success.

For the safety position, in no particular order, we’re looking at overall PFF grade, coverage grade, run defense grade, play-on-pass rate, draft capital and level of competition, among a few others.

Keys:

The prospect pool for this model consists of 347 past safety prospects dating back to 2016.
26 safeties drafted since 2018 have become a top-12 IDP finisher for their position at least once (7.5%).
41 safeties drafted since 2018 have become a top-24 IDP finisher for their position at least once (11.8%).
56 safeties drafted since 2018 have become a top-36 IDP finisher for their position at least once (16.1%).
This is an important context when understanding hit rates as many more prospects will not become fantasy-relevant than most, given such a large pool of players.
However, using this model, the higher the prospect score, the better the success rate will be for each prospect, as highlighted below.

With all this in mind, it’s time to look at this year’s edge prospects to identify our future IDP contributors. It should also be noted that these scores should not necessarily be used so much as your rankings as they should be more of a guide toward the quality of the player. Draft capital and landing spot can and will play a big part of actual rankings.

The 2025 Safety Class

MALAKI STARKS, GEORGIA

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 21st overall

Starks is projected to be the first safety taken in this year’s NFL draft, though that gap may be closing coming out of the combine. Starks’ score in this model ranks in the top cohort where top-12 IDP safety becomes the greatest possibility, as highlighted above.
While most high-end safeties have above-average career coverage grades, Starks separates himself a bit due to his work as a run defender, where he’s earned a 90.3 career run-defense grade, which ranks 92nd percentile among safety prospects since 2018.
Compared to other safeties who were drafted in either Round 1 or 2 of the NFL Draft, there have ever been eight safeties with a 90.0 or higher run-defense grade for their college careers: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James, Jalen Pitre, Brian Branch, Taylor Rapp, Jeremy Chinn and Juan Thornhill.
All except for Thornhill have finished top 12 in IDP for their position at least once so far (85.7%), putting Starks in great company of which to be a part.
Even as a player who profiles as more of a deep safety in the NFL, several of those comparables also played from more of a deep alignment, so he’ll still be a player we want to target in IDP rookie drafts, where appropriate.

NICK EMMANWORI, SOUTH CAROLINA

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 26th overall

Emmanwori has slowly crept up the consensus boards after an impressive combine to the point where he could push to be the first safety drafted, depending on what teams are looking for.
Emmanwori even scored identically to Starks in this model, giving him a similar positive IDP outlook as he heads into the draft.
While Starks earned better marks as a run defender, Emmanwori earned slightly better marks in coverage and overall while also doing a slightly better job at getting his hands on passes.
The big difference between Starks and Emmanwori, however, is that Emmanwori figures to play much closer to the line of scrimmage, spending 43% of his college snaps in the box – the highest rate of any top-200 safety prospect in this year’s class.
While this is naturally going to make him a desirable IDP prospect, his 96th percentile profile likely puts him over the top as arguably the top IDP safety option in this class.

XAVIER WATTS, NOTRE DAME

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 46th overall

As things stand right now, there hasn’t been a closer score between a trio of prospects in one class near the top of this model since 2018, as Watts comes in right behind both Starks and Emmanwori, arguably making this the most top-heavy class in recent years for IDP.
All three guys have a strong shot to be weekly IDP starters, and for Watts specifically, while he isn’t likely to go in the first round, he does own a better overall and coverage grade than the other two.
Watts also has a more ideal split of deep (43%) and box (30%) snaps for his career, giving him a wider range of potential fits in different defensive schemes.
Watts also separates himself from the first-round safeties a bit because his play on pass rate is the best in this class for top-200 prospects, which is how he came up with a class-leading 13 career interceptions.
While going on Day 2 of the NFL Draft versus the first round is likely going to keep Watts from being as desirable for IDP as Starks or Emmanwori, several 95th percentile scorers also went in that range who found high-end IDP success, including Xavier McKinney, Brian Branch, Jalen Pitre, Jaquan Brisker, Grant Delpit, Antoine Winfield Jr., Taylor Rapp and Justin Reid.
That creates a 57% success rate for Round 2 safeties who scored at least 95th percentile in this model, while four more (Richie Grant, Trevon Moehrig, Jevon Holland, Tyler Nubin) have finished at least top-24, improving that hit rate to 86%.
Only two others (Lewis Cine, Juan Thornhill) failed to crack even the top 36 IDP safeties so far.
Watts’ outlook is a strong one and should be locked in as the S3 for this class heading into the NFL Draft.

ANDREW MUKUBA, TEXAS

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 88th overall

As we head into the third round of the NFL Draft, the prospect scores continue to line up with Mukuba coming in as both the S4 in the model and according to the consensus rankings, which isn’t always the case.
As a third-round pick, Mukuba’s IDP impact might not be felt immediately in his career, as there are several past prospects who went third round or later in the NFL Draft that we’re still waiting on to hit for IDP.
Other Round 3 draft picks who scored at least 90th percentile in this model include Julian Blackmon (2020), Tykee Smith (2024), Jordan Battle (2023), Kamren Kinchens (2024), Calen Bullock (2024), Mike Edwards (2019), Nick Cross (2022), Tanner Muse (2020), Tarvarius Moore (2018), Antoine Brooks Jr. (2020), Kerby Joseph (2022), Ashtyn Davis (2020), Divine Deablo (2021) and Armani Watts (2018).
Only Blackmon, Edwards, Cross, and Joseph have finished as at least top-36 IDP scorers, and only Cross reached the top-12.
Each of those players who have found at least top-36 success took at least three seasons to get there – five for Blackmon.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Mukuba follow a similar long-term path while at the same time creating optimism for the likes of Tykee Smith, Jordan Battle, Kamren Kinchens and Calen Bullock, who all have fewer than three NFL seasons under their belts.

KEVIN WINSTON JR., PENN STATE

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 90th overall

Winston isn’t too dissimilar from the previously mentioned Mukuba as a projected third-round pick who scored just under him in the prospect model.
Winston stands out as a run defender, owning the best career run-defense grade (94.3) among over 400 safety prospects since 2018, which is a very difficult number to achieve for a player who spent 59% of his career defensive snaps lined up deep. It’s also worth noting that Winston only has 694 total defensive snaps for his career, so there’s a very small sample size to consider.
Strong run-defense grades alone aren’t enough to create excitement for a prospect, and while the high-end performers who were drafted in the first two rounds were highlighted earlier with Malaki Starks, adding the third-round prospects is a bit more hit and miss, which is also just the nature of being a third round (or later) draft pick:
There were 24 past prospects from this model that were drafted third round or later and had a run-defense grade above 90.0, leading to just two top-12 finishers for IDP – one of which was Kyzir White, who did so as a linebacker. There were only two other top-36 finishers from that cohort (Andrew Wingard and Damar Hamlin), creating just a 16.7% success rate at best and with an even more limited ceiling.
Winston is still a solid prospect and in a good range to be IDP-relevant, but unfortunately, after diving deeper, it won’t necessarily be because he’s an elite run defender alone.

LATHAN RANSOM, OHIO STATE

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 99th overall

Ransom is right there with his fellow potential third-rounders and is exactly tied with Winston in prospect score.
Ransom is more experienced as a starter than Winston, playing five years at Ohio State and over 2,400 defensive snaps.
Ransom has spent about 30% of his career snaps in the box, which is the most for these potential third-rounders, and he boasts a strong run-defense grade, which is promising considering he was asked to support more in that area.
Ransom will be grouped with his third-round peers as a player who, without an ideal landing spot, may take some time to make an impact for IDP based on the historic comparisons for players in this range, as highlighted when covering Mukuba above.

BILLY BOWMAN JR., OKLAHOMA

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 115th overall

Bowman is where we see the first significant gap between prospects, as he is not just the first prospect covered who is expected to go on Day 3, but his prospect score is the first that doesn’t necessarily have encouraging comparables.
As always, this doesn’t mean that Bowman can’t or won’t succeed in the NFL or for IDP, but as the hit rates will point out, he’s just in that more unlikely territory.
41 prospects scored between the 70th and 80th percentile in this model – seven of them have delivered a top-12 IDP finish for their position (17%), 10 have been at least top 24 (24%) and 13 have been at least top 36 (32%).
Four of the seven top-12 finishers were taken on Day 3 of the NFL Draft (Kamren Curl, Donovan Wilson, Quentin Lake, Josh Metellus), so again, there are paths where Bowman can find success, though he is also the lowest-rated prospect of that bunch as well, so the odds are against him.

JONAS SANKER, VIRGINIA

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 130th overall

As far as Day 3 players to bet on, Sanker stands out as one of the better options for IDP based on his score landing among the 85th percentile of prospects.
Sanker spent 41% of his defensive snaps in the box for his college career, which allowed him to be a highly efficient tackler for the position (95th percentile) and first to the ball more often than not, ranking 86th percentile among prospects in first contact rate.
For IDP managers honing in on guys that will likely play around the line of scrimmage, Sanker is a name to monitor come draft day should he land on a thin depth chart with a chance to start in the near future, even if not immediately in Year 1.