NFL Week 12 DFS Breakdown: A game-by-game look at the weekend DFS slate

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This breakdown can be used for cash games, single-entry, three-max and high-dollar GPPs. For max-entering GPPs, use the recommended players to build your player pool (players are listed in order based on exposure). Unless otherwise noted, all pace and pass rates refer to “neutral situations” (+/-8 points).

How do I best use the Sunday A.M. Update?

The “Sunday A.M. Update” offers a game-by-game analysis of the DraftKings main slate, focusing on key injuries, advanced stats, trends and expected pace and playcalling.

I also provide my “optimal lineups” for DraftKings (“DK”). These lineups (“LUs”) consist of 7-of-9 players to comply with DraftKings regulations of not giving out complete teams. One is designed for GPPs, and one is for Cash Games.

In addition to the optimal lineups, I also share my personal “core” player pool (usually 16-20 players) that I’m rolling out in three-max (contests that allow three lineups per user) and other multi-entry GPPs (contests that allow as many as 150 lineups per user).

GAME BREAKDOWNS

CLICK HERE TO JUMP TO A GAME:

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

HOU -8, O/U 40.5
Implied team totals: TEN (16.25), HOU (24.25)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

These teams are a combined 8-12-1 on the under this season.

Tyjae Spears is out, while Tony Pollard is off the injury report for the first time in weeks, setting him up for a big workload in a challenging matchup (Houston allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs). Pollard has averaged 25.6 touches per game in three contests without Spears, compared to 16.8 touches when Spears is active.

Houston’s defense can be run on, as it ranks last in yards after contact per carry and allows a 10-plus yard rush on 6.7% of attempts (third-highest). Pollard will likely be overlooked due to his pricing near chalky options like Bijan Robinson and Kareem Hunt, making him one of the best running back plays at $5.8K.

The Houston DST is in a strong spot, ranking eighth in sack rate and sixth in takeaways per game against a Tennessee team that is 30th in giveaways.

Tennessee appears solid against the pass but has benefited from an easy quarterback schedule, having faced Caleb Williams, Aaron Rodgers, Malik Willis, Tyler Huntley, Justin Herbert and Joe Flacco—none of whom rank in the top 14 in fantasy points per game. Against top-12 quarterbacks, Tennessee has struggled, with Jared Goff, Josh Allen and Sam Darnold combining for seven touchdown passes and a 9% touchdown rate.

C.J. Stroud is the QB17 this season, averaging 14.3 fantasy points per game after finishing 2023 as the QB11 (18.7). This drop is partly due to Joe Mixon’s dominance in the red zone, leading the league with 41 red-zone touches.

Joe Mixon faces a tough matchup against Tennessee’s run defense, which allows just 3.69 yards per carry to running backs. However, as an eight-point home favorite, Mixon is positioned for another 20-plus touches. Over his last five games, he has averaged a league-high 25.8 touches per game and has scored in every game except the one in which he was injured.

Stroud has missed his alpha wide receiver Nico Collins for much of this season. Including last week, when Collins played a season-low 47% snap share (with a 70-yard touchdown called back), Stroud has averaged 273.3 passing yards per game compared to 198 yards without Collins. Both Stroud and Collins are appealing low-owned GPP options.

Calvin Ridley, coming off a 4-58-0 line in a tough matchup against Minnesota, remains underpriced, given his usage since the DeAndre Hopkins trade. Ridley ranks third among wide receivers with a 30.4% target rate and second in air yards share (52%). He is an excellent run-back option for Stroud/Collins stacks.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

MIA -7.5, O/U 46
Implied team totals: NE (19.25), MIA (26.75)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

Tua Tagovailoa threw three touchdown passes in Week 11, his first three-touchdown game since Week 8 of last season against New England (324 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT).

Miami’s games dramatically differ in pace and scoring depending on Tua’s availability. In four games without him, their contests have averaged 20.25 combined points. With Tua under center, that number rises to 47.3 combined points per game.

Jonnu Smith, listed as a tight end, functions as Miami’s No. 2 wide receiver, lining up in the slot or as the Z wideout on 76% of his routes. When Tua plays, Smith has a 15.5% target rate, third behind Tyreek Hill (20.9%) and De’Von Achane (18.4%). Over the last three games, however, all three have tied at an 18.5% target rate (5.6 targets per game).

Smith offers significant value at his price point compared to Hill and Achane. As the only full-time player priced under $4.9K who averages 10+ fantasy points, Smith is a great flex option when building expensive stacks. It’s also a revenge game for Smith.

Drake Maye averages 35.8 pass attempts in his four full games, while Miami has allowed 42.7 pass attempts per game over its last three contests (most in the league). His pass attempts prop is set at 32.5.

Maye’s rushing ability elevates his floor and ceiling in DFS, with 24+ rushing yards in five games this season.

Hunter Henry has been productive with Maye at quarterback, averaging 5.5 receptions, 56.3 yards, and 7.5 targets per game. Miami has allowed 8 targets per game to tight ends and 26.2 fantasy points per game to the position over its last three games.

De’Von Achane continues to dominate backfield touches, despite Raheem Mostert handling three goal-line opportunities last week (all unsuccessful). Achane then scored on fourth down, potentially securing more of those high-value touches going forward.

Tyreek Hill posted a solid line last week (7-61-1). While not a “slate-breaker” performance, it was a positive step. Hill’s price and projected ownership (15%) remain lower than his ceiling suggests, making him a strong DFS play with significant upside.

Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts

DET -7.5, O/U 50.5
Implied team totals: DET (29.25), IND (21.25)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

Sam LaPorta practiced fully this week after missing Week 11 and is set to play. Indianapolis is a favorable matchup for tight ends, allowing 7.7 targets per game (tied for third-most) and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position (26th in DVOA).

Detroit leads the league in scoring, averaging 33.6 points per game, including a 52-point performance against Jacksonville last week. The Lions have scored 40+ points in four of their last seven games.

Over their last four games, Detroit has scored 154 points—nearly as many as the Giants have scored all season (156).

Detroit’s pass defense has improved significantly, ranking second in EPA per pass. While they allow 37 pass attempts per game (second-most), they’ve given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Indianapolis allows the second-most plays per game to their opponents, a dangerous combination against Detroit, who averages 6.3 yards per play.

Indianapolis aims to run the ball to ease pressure on quarterback Anthony Richardson, but their offensive line has struggled, ranking 31st in adjusted line yards per carry. Jonathan Taylor has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry over his last three games. Detroit presents a tough matchup, allowing 4.03 yards per carry on the second-fewest attempts per game to running backs.

Indianapolis has struggled to stop the run, giving up the fourth-most rushing yards and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Breece Hall exploited this last week, posting 121 total yards and two touchdowns.

Detroit has allowed the most targets and receiving yards per game to slot receivers, setting up Josh Downs well after his 5-84-1 line against the Jets last week.

Downs, priced at $6.2K, faces competition for targets from Michael Pittman, who saw a team-high eight targets last week. Pittman has led the team in targets in four of Richardson’s five starts (Downs was out in Weeks 1 and 2).

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

MIN -3.5, O/U 39.5
Implied team totals: MIN (21.5), CHI (18)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

Both teams are 3-7 on the under this season.

Chicago played slowly and passed at a 50% rate in their first game under newly appointed offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. Brown implemented changes to Caleb Williams’ mechanics, leading to his quickest average time to throw and lowest air yards per attempt of the season, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Brown also utilized more pre-snap motion, which improves efficiency in both the passing and rushing attacks.

D’Andre Swift is listed as questionable (groin) but is expected to play. However, Swift’s snap share last week was his lowest since Week 3, though he still managed 16 touches for 84 total yards and a touchdown. Under Brown, Roschon Johnson out-touched Swift at the goal line four to one. With a tough matchup against Minnesota (second-fewest fantasy points per game allowed to running backs), Swift is an easy fade this week.

Against Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense (38%, second-highest), Chicago is likely to rely on short passes again, as Caleb Williams has a 41.7% completion rate under pressure.

Rome Odunze stands out with a 26% target share and 46% air yards share over his last two games. He saw 10 targets last week and is averaging 14.3 expected fantasy points per game over that span, though he has only delivered 8.9 actual fantasy points per game.

Tight end Josh Oliver is out, likely leading to an increased snap share for T.J. Hockenson.

Chicago’s run defense (31st in rush DVOA) remains a prime target. Last week, Josh Jacobs capitalized on the matchup with 134 total yards and a touchdown. This week, Aaron Jones is a strong option despite playing just 53% of offensive snaps in Week 10 after sustaining a rib injury. Jones told reporters he is feeling much better and expressed confidence in his readiness for this game.

#Vikings RB Aaron Jones on not scoring a TD in a little over a month:

“I talk to my son about it, I talk to my mom, I talk about it every day… I miss it, I miss the end zone. I will be back soon.”

🎥: @Vikings YouTube pic.twitter.com/nPr0DaEWWY

— VikingzFanPage (@vikingzfanpage) November 22, 2024

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers

KC -11, O/U 43
Implied team totals: KC (26.75), CAR (16.25)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

Carolina running back Miles Sanders is out, and Jonathon Brooks is expected to make his debut.

Wide receiver Jalen Coker (quad) is questionable after missing Friday’s practice, while Adam Thielen (hamstring) is expected to play.

Kansas City’s pass rate has increased to 62% (fourth in the league) over the last three weeks after ranking 15th (54%) in their first seven games.

Carolina has not been competitive enough to push opponents into aggressive play, ranking 31st in neutral pass rate against and last in overall pass rate against.

The Panthers have trailed for the most plays this season (376).

Kansas City passes at the eighth-lowest rate (40%) when leading by 7 or more points.

Per FTN Data, Kansas City’s offensive line ranks sixth in adjusted line yards gained per carry (4.63), but their running backs are 31st in yards per carry (3.63). Carolina ranks last in adjusted line yards allowed (5.22). Despite inefficiency, Kareem Hunt should see enough volume to make an impact, especially with Isiah Pacheco out. Carolina has allowed 38.5 rushing attempts per game at home, the most in the league.

Hunt has averaged 14 attempts over his last two games, as Kansas City has played from behind on 88% of their snaps. In the four games prior, he averaged 24.25 carries per game. His rushing prop is set at 19.5 attempts (-120).

Hunt has logged 31 red zone carries in seven games, tying him with Saquon Barkley and James Conner, both of whom have played 10 games. Hunt also has 12 goal-line touches, tied for second behind only Derrick Henry.

Since Week 4, Travis Kelce has had two games with four or fewer catches. In the two games following those performances, he has averaged 20.5 fantasy points per game, with 8.5 receptions, 89.5 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Despite Carolina allowing the 16th-most attempts to tight ends, they have given up the second-most fantasy points to the position, including a 10.5% touchdown rate. Kelce will be the chalk at tight end, but at 20-25% projected ownership, it’s not enough to fade him at his current price.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants

TB -6, O/U 41.5
Implied team totals: TB (24), NYG (18)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

Malik Nabers is questionable with a groin injury. If he can’t play, Darius Slay ton ($4.6K) is a strong alternative. Slayton missed the game before the Giants’ bye (concussion) but practiced fully this week. Tampa Bay allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.

Tampa Bay ranks fifth in points per game (27.9) despite facing San Francisco and Philadelphia, two top-seven defensive DVOA teams. They’ve averaged 23.3 points per game without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for three straight games. Coming off their bye week, Evans and tackle Tristan Wirfs are questionable but expected to return.

Tampa Bay’s offensive line ranks first in offensive pressure rate allowed, a key factor against the Giants’ seventh-ranked defensive pressure rate.

The Giants rank last in points per game (15.6) and have released Daniel Jones. Tommy DeVito will start at quarterback. While DeVito isn’t a standout player, he has some rushing ability and a slightly better supporting cast than last season. At $4K, DeVito is an intriguing option in this matchup, as Tampa Bay ranks last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

New York has shifted to a run-heavy approach recently. Over their past three games, they have had the lowest first-half pass rate (45%) after ranking 11th in this category over their first seven games. This strategy will likely continue with DeVito under center, especially if the game stays close.

Tampa Bay has struggled against running backs, ranking 26th in yards per carry allowed and giving up the second-most receiving points per game to the position (fifth-most overall). Tyrone Tracy has averaged 19.3 touches per game over his last three games with Devin Singletary active, making him a strong option.

Cade Otton’s role may decline with Evans back. Tampa Bay lacked a WR threat without Evans and Godwin, which forced targets toward Otton. Typically, Otton benefits from being overlooked in coverage. The Giants rank first in points allowed to tight ends, though they’ve faced limited competition at the position. Their highest-ranked opponent was Zach Ertz (TE15), while they missed David Njoku, Dallas Goedert, and T.J. Hockenson due to injuries.

Bucky Irving is poised for more opportunities, according to Todd Bowles. Irving averages 5+ yards per carry (3.7 yards after contact) and matched his season-high 16 touches before the bye. With Tampa Bay healthier and favored by six points, Irving is set up for a breakout game against the Giants’ poor run defense (31st in EPA per rush).

The Giants rank 32nd in explosive rush rate and have allowed a 100+ yard rusher in three of their last four games. Despite allowing the 15th-most rush attempts, they’ve surrendered the fifth-most rushing yards (5.15 RB yards per carry allowed).

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders

WAS -10.5, O/U 45
Implied team totals: DAL (17.5), WAS (27.5)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs and guard Zack Martin will not travel with the team to Washington and have been downgraded to out for Sunday’s game against the Commanders.

Washington is a run funnel defense, with 45% of the yards against them coming via the rush (48% over the last three games, both league-highs). However, Dallas may struggle to exploit this weakness, as they rank last in the percentage of their yards gained via the rush.

Conversely, Washington’s rushing offense is well-positioned, ranking seventh in the percentage of their yards gained via the rush. Dallas has allowed the fifth-highest percentage of yards gained via the rush.

Cooper Rush dropped back 55 times in a tough matchup against Houston on Monday night. While Dallas likely doesn’t want to pass that often, they may have to if their defense continues to allow points at a high rate (29.3 per game overall, 31.7 over the last three games).

CeeDee Lamb is on fire, averaging 13 targets per game over his last five games. His 65 targets during that span are one more than Ja’Marr Chase’s total, and Lamb has done it in one fewer game.

Brian Robinson returned last week, posting 16 carries for 63 yards and a touchdown in a difficult matchup against Philadelphia. He is projected for 25% ownership despite his limited pass-catching role and the possibility of losing goal-line touches to his quarterback or RB2 Austin Ekeler. Robinson’s upside relies on touchdowns, but with Dallas allowing the most rushing TDs in the league (18), this could be the week to play him. Matching the field exposure at 25% is a reasonable approach.

Speaking of Austin Ekeler, he offers intriguing tournament leverage (1% projected ownership). Ekeler led Washington in targets last week with an 8-89-0 line on nine targets. If Dallas takes a lead or keeps the game competitive, Ekeler becomes the back to roster for this matchup.

Luke Schoonmaker is a viable punt tight end at $2.5K with Jake Ferguson out. Schoonmaker posted 6 catches for 56 yards on 10 targets last week and remains the starter.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

DEN -6, O/U 41
Implied team totals: DEN (23.5), LV (17.5)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

Alexander Mattison and Zamir White are doubtful, leaving Ameer Abdullah as the starter and Dylan Laube as his backup. Las Vegas has the league’s worst rushing offense statistically, and with Denver likely controlling the game, the Raiders are expected to pass heavily (64.75% pass rate, second-highest in the league).

Las Vegas is 7-3 to the over this season.

Las Vegas ranks 31st in EPA per pass over its last four games, while Denver has improved significantly, moving from 21st to eighth in that span.

Bo Nix is averaging 2.3 passing touchdowns over his last three games and finds himself in another favorable spot against a Raiders defense that has allowed 10 passing touchdowns in its last three games, with a 6% passing touchdown rate (the same as Jacksonville). Nix has played better as the season progresses and thrives in favorable matchups.

In four games as a favorite since Week 4, Nix is averaging 24+ fantasy points per game, nine points more than his average in four games as an underdog.

Nix struggles under pressure, ranking 48th of 50 quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’ pressure grade (2 TDs, 2 INTs, 50.3 QB rating). When kept clean, however, he ranks as QB14 with 12 TDs, 4 INTs, and a 100 QB rating.

Las Vegas blitzes at the 10th-highest rate but ranks 30th in pressure rate. Denver’s pass protection, ranking seventh in pressure rate allowed (fourth over the last four games), should enable Nix to excel. Nix is currently QB4 in fantasy points per game (23.3) over his last four games, trailing only Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts.

Denver plays man coverage at the fifth-highest rate. Against man, Jakobi Meyers leads the Raiders with a 30.1% target rate (compared to 18% vs. zone). Brock Bowers has a 21.8% target rate against man (33% against zone).

Bowers had 8 catches for 97 yards and a touchdown in their last matchup, though the score came on a 57-yard busted coverage play. Under new offensive coordinator Scott Turner, Bowers saw a 52% first-read target share last week, signaling continued high usage.

Las Vegas has allowed the highest pressure rate over the last four games (39.7%), which is a dangerous combination against Denver’s pass rush (third in blitz rate, fifth in pressure rate). The Denver defense, priced at $3.2K, is expected to be highly popular after posting 16 fantasy points in Week 5.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

ARI -1, O/U 47.5
Implied team totals: ARI (24.25), SEA (23.25)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

Noah Fant returned to practice Friday and is expected to play.

Seattle ranks third in pass rate and fourth in pace, while Arizona prefers to run. It ranks 26th in neutral pass rate but operates at the eighth-fastest neutral pace. Ideally, Seattle would take the lead and raise Arizona’s pass rate, setting up a shootout.

Arizona has developed significant home-and-road splits, allowing 29.5 points per game on the road (fourth-most) compared to 17 points per game at home (seventh-fewest).

Arizona ranks 31st in defensive success rate against the pass.

Arizona is 30th in DVOA against slot receivers, allowing 8.5 yards per target. This sets up Jaxon Smith-Njigba for another favorable matchup. With DK Metcalf back, Smith-Njigba led the team with a 34% target rate, producing his second consecutive 100+ yard game. He is expected to be popular on a slate with limited mid-range/value wide receiver options.

Geno Smith has struggled under pressure this season, completing 50% of his passes with 5 touchdowns and 10 interceptions compared to a 78% completion rate with 6 touchdowns and 1 interception when not pressured. Arizona ranks 26th in pressure rate.

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

GB -2, O/U 44.5
Implied team totals: SF (22.75), GB (24.75)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

The 49ers are banged up heading into Week 12. Brock Purdy, Charvarius Ward, and Nick Bosa are out, while Trent Williams is questionable. George Kittle will return, which is significant for the running game.

Brandon Allen will start at quarterback for the 49ers. Allen has completed 56.7% of his passes (6.1 yards per attempt) with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions, averaging 14 fantasy points per game in six career starts.

The linemakers dropped the total for this game by three points with Purdy out. Both defenses are strong enough to slow these offenses, and both teams spread the ball around enough to make this (cold, potentially rainy) game a fade for single-entry and 3-Max contests.

I have some exposure to Jayden Reed and Josh Jacobs in tournaments.

Sunday A.M. Update

Core Lineups

Cash Lineup (DK)

GPP Lineup (DK)

*If Malik Nabers is OUT

Tommy DeVito
Bucky Irving
Tyreek Hill (Use CeeDee Lamb here on another lineup)
Mike Evans
Darius Slay ton
Travis Kelce
De’Von Achane

*For another lineup focusing on the same game, flip DeVito out for Baker Mayfield, Tyrone Tracy Jr. for Irving, and then put Cade Otton in the flex. Finally, put Jaxon Smith-Njigba in for Tyreek.

GPP Lineup (DK)

*You can also make this a double stack by switching out Thielen for Xavier Worthy or DeAndre Hopkins. I also have teams with Mahomes-Hunt-Kelce.

Game Stacks Ranks

Player Pool (Players I am using in multi-entry who are not listed in the core lineups)

QB

Jayden Daniels
Bo Nix (can play in cash, Nix is one of my highest-rostered QBs this week)
Kyler Murray
Tua Tagovailoa
Anthony Richardson
Drake Maye

RB

WR

TE

Brock Bowers
Trey McBride
Sam LaPorta
T.J. Hockenson
Hunter Henry (using in MIA/NE stacks, double TE with Jonnu Smith)
Luke Schoonmaker

D/ST

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