Fire & Ice: Top starts, sits and sleepers in fantasy football and DFS for Wild-Card Weekend

• Saquon Barkley is worth the hefty DFS price tag: Not only did Barkley destroy the Green Bay Packers for 132 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1, but he has put up over 100 yards in his of his four career matchups against them.

• Expect Broncos QB Bo Nix to struggle in Buffalo: Not only is Buffalo a tough place to play in, especially in January, but Bo Nix also has been much better at home than on the road in his rookie season. If history tells us anything about rookie QBs playing on the road in the playoffs, this is not going to be a fun game for Nix and the Denver Broncos offense.

• 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF's best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.

Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes

The regular fantasy season is over, but that doesn’t mean your fantasy football fun is over. Get your DFS lineups submitted to enjoy the NFL playoff games to the fullest! And I can help you make the best lineup! Below you can find my top fire (boom), sleeper (risky but high upside) and ice (bust) players at each position for Wild Card Weekend.

Don’t miss my Fire & Ice chart at the bottom of this page. There, I have listed out all of my fire, good, sleeper and ice plays for Wild Card Weekend.

Note: I used FanDuel Saturday-Monday tournament slate for player pricing.

Quarterbacks

Fire QB Start of the Week: Baker Mayfield (vs. WAS)

FanDuel Cost: $7,900 – Fifth among QBs

This is a very kind cost for Baker Mayfield, who has scored 22 fantasy points in four straight weeks. Plus, this matchup is at home, where Mayfield averaged 22.3 fantasy points per game this season. He faced the Washington Commanders defense in Week 1 and had a monster day with four touchdowns and nearly 300 yards through the air for 30 fantasy points. I would not be surprised if Mayfield finishes as the top-scorer among the 12 starting quarterbacks this weekend.

Sleeper QB of the Week: Matthew Stafford (vs. MIN)

FanDuel Cost: $7,100 – 10th among QBs

The last month has not been kind to Matthew Stafford, who has just one touchdown and 23 fantasy points combined over his last three games. However, if the Los Angeles Rams have any hope of beating the 14-3 Minnesota Vikings, they will need Stafford and Puka Nacua to play their best football.

Only two teams beat the Vikings this season — NFC’s No. 1 seed Detroit Lions and the Rams. Stafford put up 279 passing yards and four touchdowns for 25 fantasy points in that game.

Ice QB Start of the Week: Bo Nix (at BUF)

FanDuel Cost: $7,500 – Eighth among QBs

Bo Nix had an impressive rookie season, and Denver Broncos fans should be excited about their future … but there are many reasons to believe that Nix will struggle mightily this weekend in Buffalo. The first reason is that Nix’s home/road splits in his rookie season have been drastic:

Nix in 8 home games: 67.9 comp pct, 250.5 pass YPG, 19 pass TD, 21.3 fantasy PPG
Nix in 9 away games: 64.9 comp pct, 196.8 pass YPG, 10 pass TD, 16.4 fantasy PPG

Plus, the Bills have not allowed an opposing quarterback to score 18 fantasy points against them at home this season. On top of that, only one rookie quarterback in NFL history has scored more than 15 fantasy points on the road in the wild-card round (Russell Wilson in the 2012 wild-card round, scored 20 fantasy points).

Running Backs

Fire RB Start of the Week: Saquon Barkley (vs. GB)

FanDuel Cost: $9,600 – Second among RBs

As expected, getting Saquon Barkley in your DFS lineups comes with a large price tag … but he will be worth it.

The Eagles are running at a historical rate this season. They ran the ball 621 times this season, 67 more times than any other team — that is the most rush attempts by any team in a single season since the 1984 Chicago Bears.

Barkley has owned the Green Bay Packers, putting up over 100 scrimmage yards in each of his four career matchups against them. He has had over 100 yards and at least two touchdowns in both of his last two games against the Packers, including his Week 1 performance when he put up 132 yards and three touchdowns in Brazil.

Sleeper RB of the Week: Austin Ekeler (at TB)

FanDuel Cost: $5,400 – 16th among RBs

The 2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a strong run defense, however, receiving backs have found success against them — they allowed the fifth most receiving yards to the running back position this season. Austin Ekeler will likely not get many opportunities on the ground, but he should see good target volume in this matchup. In Week 1, when these two teams faced off, Ekeler led the Washington Commanders with four receptions for 52 yards.

Ekeler missed a big chunk of time with a bad concussion from Weeks 13-17, but came back in Week 18 and will be ready for a bigger workload in the Wild Card round. Prior to his absence, he had gone three straight games scoring at least 13.6 fantasy points in half PPR scoring (FanDuel setting). With Brian Robinson Jr.’s limited usage over the back end of the year, plus the matchup advantage for receiving backs, Ekeler is the better Commanders’ RB value in FanDuel contests this weekend.

Ice RB Start of the Week: Najee Harris (at BAL)

FanDuel Cost: $6,000 – 12th among RBs

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been stripping away playing time and workload from Najee Harris over the back half of the season. He has seen the field for just 42% of the team’s offensive snaps from Weeks 12-18 after playing on 56% of the snaps from Weeks 1-11, and he had 13 or fewer carries in each of the last four games of the regular season.

Harris has been a highly inefficient runner this season, or really his entire career, and the Baltimore Ravens have allowed, by far, the fewest yards per carry to running backs this season. When the Steelers played at Baltimore in Week 16, Harris scored just 4.2 fantasy points while seeing just nine carries and zero receptions in the game. His upside is maybe 12 fantasy points if he gets into the end zone. He should not be considered an option in tournament lineups.

Wide Receivers

Fire WR Start of the Week: Jalen McMillan (vs. WAS)

FanDuel Cost: $6,400 – 14th among WRs

One of the biggest storylines on Sunday Night will be Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans going against Washington Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore. These two have a long history of intense battles during Lattimore’s tenure with the Bucs’ rival, the New Orleans Saints. While Evans deals with Lattimore in coverage, his teammate Jalen McMillan will face much more favorable matchups in coverage against Benjamin St-Juste and rookie Mike Sainristil.

With the Buccaneers' playoff hopes on the line, McMillan played on a career-high 88% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 18. He has put up at least 50 receiving yards and 1-plus touchdown in five straight games. In fact, McMillan is the only player in the NFL with more than five receiving touchdowns since Week 14 (he has seven).

Sleeper WR Start of the Week: Olamide Zaccheaus (at TB)

FanDuel Cost: $5,600 – 22nd among WRs

The Commanders are leaning away from rookie Luke McCaffrey and have been giving veteran Olamide Zaccheaus a bunch of more time on the field. Zaccheaus has played 72% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last three games of the season, after playing on just 36% of snaps from Weeks 1-15. From Weeks 16-18, Zaccheaus has three receiving touchdowns and has averaged nearly 70 receiving yards and 16 fantasy points per game.

Zaccheaus has the most slot receiving yards among Commanders WRs from Weeks 16-18, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed the sixth most receiving yards to WRs out of the slot this season. Plus, Jamison Crowder is dealing with a groin injury that could limit his playing time, which would allow Zaccheaus to see even more snaps out of the slot this weekend.

Ice WR Start of the Week: Courtland Sutton (at BUF)

FanDuel Cost: $7,100 – Ninth among WRs

Courtland Sutton put up big numbers in Week 18 against the Kansas City Chiefs’ practice squad defense, but things will be significantly harder against the Buffalo Bills cornerbacks this weekend. Sutton is expected to see a lot of CB Christian Benford in coverage, who allowed the fewest receiving yards among 39 CBs that played 500-plus coverage snaps in 2024. The Bills have allowed just three wide receivers to score more than 11 fantasy points against them at home this entire year.

Tight Ends

Fire TE Start of the Week: Zach Ertz (at TB)

FanDuel Cost: $5,500 – 12th among TEs

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed the second most receiving yards to the tight end position in 2024. Zach Ertz has been heavily utilized over the backend of the season, especially in the red zone – he has scored six touchdowns over the last seven games. This matchup should be a high-scoring affair and rookie Jayden Daniels needs to lean on his veteran tight end who has a lot of playoff experience in his career. Ertz has a good shot to come down with a handful of receptions and at least one touchdown on Wild Card Weekend.

Sleeper TE of the Week: Tyler Higbee (vs. MIN)

FanDuel Cost: $5,100 – 11th among TEs

Due to tearing his ACL in the 2023 postseason, Tyler Higbee did not make his 2024 debut until Week 16. Amazingly, Higbee already has two receiving touchdowns in three games played this season, after having just two touchdowns all of the last year. On paper, the 2024 Minnesota Vikings look like a tough defense against tight ends, but they have faced very a lot of weak competition in that area. The handful of competent tight ends they did face (Trey McBride, George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft, Tyler Conklin and Cole Kmet) all had over 50 receiving yards in their game against the Vikings this season.

Ice TE Start of the Week: Pat Freiermuth (at BAL)

FanDuel Cost: $5,500 – Seventh among TEs

Pat Freiermuth finished the 2024 season against two great tight end matchups (Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals) and he was very productive with 19 targets for 145 receiving yards and a touchdown over those games … but he gets a much more difficult matchup in Wild Card weekend. Russell Wilson has to basically be forced to ever throw a ball over the middle, while the Baltimore Ravens have great linebackers and safeties to make it difficult to target the middle of the field successfully. Over Freiermuth’s two matchups this season against the Ravens, he put up a combined five receptions for 30 yards for a total of 5.5 fantasy points. Gross. Stay away.

Fire & Ice Fantasy Football Plays

Here, I categorize every relevant fantasy player into five different buckets: (1) fire starts (best starts of the week); (2) thumbs up (good starts); (3) Risky players with upside (sleepers); (4) Ice starts (predicting bad performance from good player); (5) Stop (must sits).

Note: If a player/defense is not listed, I either expect them not to play in Wild Card weekend or am not considering starting them in fantasy lineups.