Fantasy Football: Best picks in each NFC division

• QB Caleb Williams looks set to transform the Chicago Bears: The rookie quarterback will push for an elite QB1 finish in Year 1.

• Watch out for WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba is primed for a Year 2 breakout.

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Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes

Variables like talent, offensive environment and average draft position must all be weighed when identifying players with noteworthy fantasy football outcomes, both in half-points-per-reception and PPR scoring formats. Some NFL divisions are stronger than others, but worthwhile fantasy football assets can be found in all eight.

Here, we'll break down the NFC North, NFC South, NFC East and NFC West divisions’ best fantasy football draft picks.

NFC NORTH: QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Williams can be safely drafted as a locked-in QB1 with elite upside, thanks to his dual-threat skill set, working with a league-best pass-catching corps and playing perhaps the league’s softest first-half schedule. Fantasy managers are allowing Williams to fall outside the top 100 by both half-PPR and PPR ADP, drafting him as a high-end QB2. He is the NFC North’s best fantasy football draft pick. His 70.3 PFF overall grade through preseason Week 2 tied for 20th among 55 qualifying quarterbacks.

Williams plays behind PFF senior fantasy analyst Nathan Jahnke’s ninth-ranked offensive line. While the Bears' pass blocking may still be a concern, Williams benefits from the group’s ground-game bulldozing ability. We recently looked at three must-draft quarterbacks being selected outside the position’s top 12, highlighting that Williams ranked 13th or better among 30 Power Five quarterbacks with at least 115 rushing attempts over the past two seasons in five rushing metrics, including a third-ranked 87.9 PFF rushing grade.

And in the passing game, he ranked 13th in turnover-worthy-play rate (2.6%), fifth in big-time-throw rate (6.1%), fourth in completion rate (67.2%) and third in yards per passing attempt (9.1). His 90.5 PFF passing grade tied for fifth.

Williams’ talents have translated to NFL preseason play. His 13.0% big-time-throw rate through Week 2 ranked second among qualifying quarterbacks, and his 0.0% turnover-worthy play rate tied for first. He also totaled 20 rushing yards, one touchdown, one first-down gained (excluding the touchdown) and one explosive rushing play on just two preseason rushing attempts.

For details on the Bears' elite pass-catching corps, read “3 must-draft rookie quarterbacks“ and “ambiguous backfields to target in 2024.”

Chicago’s offense also headlined the recent “favorable early-season pass- and run-game schedules,” featuring nine beatable defensive units through the season’s first 11 weeks.

NFC SOUTH: WR Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints

Olave enters his third NFL season as the Saints' new offensive focal point. Fantasy managers can bank on improved play-calling and a likely career-high, target total for Olave, making his late second-round, back-end WR1 ADP in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats a buy-low opportunity.

His 86.8 PFF overall grade over the past two seasons ranks 11th among 49 qualifying wide receivers.

Olave finished as the Weeks 1-17 WR25 in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats in 2022 before mildly improving to respective WR21 and WR20 finishes last year, functioning in a one-dimensional downfield role.

The table below ranks Olave’s 2022-2023 receiving data among 34 NFL wide receivers with at least 195 targets during that span.

New Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak functioned as the San Francisco 49ers‘ passing game coordinator last year, and his schematic changes should immediately boost Olave’s production, particularly after the catch. Kubiak’s 2023 unit targeted wide receivers 12.4 yards downfield on first-read throws, ranking 19th. New Orleans’ 2023 offense, led by former offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, targeted wide receivers 13.6 yards downfield on first-read throws, ranking seventh. Kubiak (14.9%, 30th) and Carmichael’s (22.5%, fifth) first-read deep-target rates on passes thrown to wide receivers show an even starker contrast.

Kubiak also helped disguise his passing plays pre-snap, utilizing play-action passing at a 22.7% rate (19th) while totaling 753 regular-season snaps using motion (third). New Orleans’ respective 14.4% (32nd) and 366 (30th) figures paled in comparison.

Even moderate shifts toward Kubiak’s 2023 play-calling should lead to significantly more productivity from Olave, who also faces far less target competition than in years past.

Michael Thomas, who regularly hoarded the team’s few short-area targets, is now a free agent, and veteran running back Alvin Kamara enters his age-29 season after recording three single-season receiving lows in 2023. Thomas earned a 67.8 PFF receiving grade last year. Kamara sunk to a 0.1-yard average depth of target, 6.2 yards per reception and 6.6 yards after the catch per reception while earning a 78.4 PFF receiving grade.

No. 2 wide receiver Rashid Shaheed, identified as an eventual breakout in 2022, suffered two lower-body injuries recently and may start the season slowly as a result.

NFC EAST: WR Malik Nabers, New York Giants

Nabers can be safely expected to handle a near-league-leading positional workload and possesses the requisite skills to create yards on his own despite a subpar offensive environment. His 5.03, WR24 ADP in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats allows for an easily afforded WR1 finish. Nabers' 93.1 PFF receiving grade in 2023 ranked first overall among 22 Power Five wide receivers with at least 100 targets.

Per Nathan Jahnke’s preseason Week 2 recap, New York’s first-team offense remained on the field for the game’s first half, where Nabers accounted for 33.3% (six) of quarterback Daniel Jones’ passing attempts and handled one rushing attempt. Jones’ errant arm will result in lost plays this year, but Nabers’ expectedly elite target share has a chance to result in one of the position’s highest raw target totals. The team currently does not have an established No. 2 full-time wide receiver, adequately reflecting Nabers’ paltry target competition.

Jones’ 54.4 PFF passing grade last season ranked 37th among 39 qualifying quarterbacks.

Given the expectedly high target volume, fantasy managers should comfortably rely on Nabers’ ability to create on his own after the catch. The “Best post-reception producers in the 2024 NFL Draft” article highlighted Nabers’ slippery traits at all three levels of the field.

Among qualifying Power Five wide receivers in 2023, Nabers boasted top-five missed tackles forced per reception rates on short targets (0.38), medium targets (0.35) and deep targets (0.21). He also ranked 16th or better in yards after the catch per reception at each level of the field, with a No. 4 overall finish in the 10-to-19-yard range (7.2).

Among 22 Power Five wide receivers with at least 100 targets in 2023, Nabers ranked second in both explosive pass plays (43) and explosive pass play rate (48.3%).

NFC West: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

Smith-Njigba enters his second NFL season after delivering disappointing Weeks 1-17 WR4 results in 2023, limited by a frustrating short-area role that compromised his ability to generate explosive plays while playing behind a pair of established veteran wide receivers.

Smith-Njigba’s rookie season high points, developing rapport with quarterback Geno Smith and a rise in the pecking order signal an impeding Year 2 breakout. He is available outside the top 100 picks as a WR4 in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats. Smith-Njigba's 63.3 PFF receiving grade in 2023 ranked 51st among 64 qualifying wide receivers, and Smith’s 82.1 PFF passing grade ranked 12th among 32 qualifying quarterbacks.

Smith-Njigba was largely limited to an agonizing short-area role for much of his rookie season, though the usage showcased his dynamic post-catch traits. He demonstrated a consistent ability to produce chunk gains, averaging 0.2 yards shy of an explosive pass play per reception when allowed to work 10-plus yards downfield. Coincidentally, Smith thrives on passes thrown at least 10 yards downfield, as detailed in “3 must-draft quarterbacks being selected outside the position’s top 12.”

The table below compares Smith-Njigba’s 2023 receiving data in games with a 10-plus-yard average depth of target (Weeks 7, 11, 12 and 15) to his games with a sub-10-yard average depth of target (Weeks 1-4, 6, 8-10, 13-14 and 16-18).

Smith-Njigba eventually produced in the subpar role, notching at least one explosive pass play per game in all but one contest from Week 6 to 16. He finished as the PPR WR37 or better seven times during that span, including three WR2 finishes.

Smith has consistently sung Smith-Njigba’s praises this offseason, and their tightening rapport is evident.

Smith-Njigba has decent odds of overtaking veteran wide receiver Tyler Lockett for the No. 2 role this year. Lockett continues to work through a nonspecific leg injury and dealt with recurring hamstring strains over the past two seasons.

Lockett remains a capable route runner, but his PFF receiving grade and yards per route run averages have steadily declined since 2021, coming to rest at a 77.6 PFF receiving grade and 1.61 yards per route run. He failed to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards (894) for the first time since 2018 despite totaling his second-highest single-season target total (122).

Smith-Njigba also received exciting preseason Week 1 usage. Per Nathan Jahnke’s preseason Week 1 fantasy football recap, “the Seahawks played six snaps out of 12 personnel on the first three drives, and Smith-Njigba was in for all six. He only played two snaps out of 12 personnel all last preseason, which were run plays, and only 16 all regular season.“

Smith-Njigba profiles as the next great wide receiver to take a sizable Year 2 leap, making him the NFC West’s best fantasy football draft pick.