• Wide receiver is the right first-round pick outside of 1.01: Christian McCaffrey is the right pick at 1.01, but a wide receiver is the way to go at any other pick in the first round.
• Find a top-six quarterback and tight end: Picking one of the elite quarterbacks and tight ends was a winning strategy last season and should be again this year.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF's fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated Reading Time: 14 minutes
The perfect draft series combines current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for 12-team PPR leagues.
The perfect fantasy football draft series combines current average draft positions from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick, and then we make the best picks with that information. This draft is designed for 12-team PPR leagues. Click here for our 10-team version.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Monday, August 19
Round 1, Picks 1-12: Draft a wide receiver
Anyone with the top overall pick should take Christian McCaffrey with little hesitation. He scored over 100 more PPR points than any other running back last season and has the perfect combination of talent, opportunity and situation. Anyone missing out needs to pivot to a wide receiver. No quarterback or tight end is worth a first-round pick this year.
Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall are both worthy of being selected in the first round, but both also have slightly higher ADPs than they should, given the talent at wide receiver. As such, if you pick anywhere from second to 10th, wide receiver is the best option.
Top Target: CeeDee Lamb (Player Profile)
Lamb has noticeably improved each season and is now at the top of the position. He finished 2023 as the top wide receiver and has less competition for targets this season after Tony Pollard‘s and Michael Gallup‘s departure. The only notable addition is sixth-round receiver Ryan Flournoy, which will have no impact on Lamb’s target share.
In contrast, Justin Jefferson has a new quarterback, Ja’Marr Chase’s quarterback is coming back from injury and Tyreek Hill is 30 years old, adding a little risk to each of their profiles.
Possible Targets: Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua
Round 2, Picks 13-24: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Last season, the perfect pick in the second round was often a quarterback. Patrick Mahomes‘ ADP was a bit high, so either Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen was typically the best pick. They also happened to be the quarterbacks most frequently on ESPN championship game teams last season. While Hurts lost center Jason Kelce and Allen lost wide receiver Stefon Diggs, they are both still worthy of second-round picks.
Hurts’ ADP has fallen to the third round on all major sites, while Allen has dropped to the third on most sites and is at the end of the second in the other. Because of the lower ADPs, we can wait a round for a quarterback. It will vary based on which position is a value. Whichever position isn’t picked here will likely be the position of weakness on this roster.
Top Target: Jahmyr Gibbs (Player Profile)
Gibbs consistently excelled in ideal situations. On perfectly blocked plays, when he could follow his intended point of attack and against seven or fewer men in the box, he ranked between the 95th and 99th percentile in PFF rushing grade. He finished eighth in PPR points last season. It’s hard for him to reach the Christian McCaffrey level without more rushing attempts per game, but there is reason to believe his fantasy points can improve with either more touches, improved production in the receiving game and/or the offensive line helping him even more than before.
Possible Targets: Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Davante Adams, Chris Olave, Drake London
Round 3, Picks 25-36: Draft a quarterback or wide receiver
As mentioned in Round 2, hopefully, Allen or Hurts falls to this pick to get a top-two fantasy quarterback at a value. If you didn’t want to wait and select a quarterback in Round 2, or if both Allen and Hurts are off the board, wide receiver is the clear choice in Round 3. Several players who are the clear top wide receivers on their team with a long history of fantasy production are available to pick from.
Top Target: Jalen Hurts
Hurts has averaged at least 21.0 fantasy points per start in every season of his career. While his tush push touchdowns have certainly helped his fantasy value, he’s one of just four quarterbacks with at least 2,200 rushing yards over the last three seasons while no one else is above 1,300. Considering one of those four is a backup and the other two are at an age where we stop seeing as much rushing production from quarterbacks, Hurts could be the best rushing quarterback this season. He is also surrounded by a top-three receiving corp and offensive line so even if his rushing touchdown total recedes, his fantasy production should remain high.
Possible Targets: Mike Evans, Nico Collins, Jaylen Waddle, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson
Round 4, Picks 37-48: Draft a running back, tight end, Lamar Jackson or Malik Nabers
If you didn’t pick a quarterback last round and Lamar Jackson is available, he would be the pick here. It’s OK to consider a tight end, but typically three options that are nearly as good are available in the next round. The value at wide receiver in the fourth round isn’t great, but Malik Nabers could be an OK pick depending on who is available and this team's roster construction, but in general, I lean toward running back.
Top Target: Joe Mixon (Player Profile)
Mixon has been a consistent top-12 fantasy running back in both total ranking and points per game. Although he enters a new environment in 2024, he will again play in a high-scoring offense as the Houston Texans‘ clear lead running back. While he’s never been the most explosive running back, it’s fair to think he will finish in the top 12 yet again. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik recently said Mixon is “an absolute workhorse, in every regard.” The offenses Slowik has been part of generally run the ball more than average, which should continue to be true with Mixon.
Possible Targets: Lamar Jackson, Trey McBride, Malik Nabers, Mark Andrews, Kenneth Walker III
Round 5, Picks 49-60: Draft a wide receiver or tight end
The start of Round 5 is a sweet spot for adding a star tight end, which is why that position was ignored at the end of Round 2. The top tight ends available at this spot have either finished as top-six fantasy tight ends each of the last two seasons with the same quarterback and offensive play-caller or are a young tight end with a great opportunity to have a career year.
Top Target: Kyle Pitts (Player Profile)
Pitts is a very talented tight end who has consistently underperformed in fantasy football. His 82.4 PFF receiving grade over the last three seasons is the fifth-best among tight ends, behind Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert. Pitts' utilization has been a major problem. Last season, he played over 75% of his team's offensive snaps in only two games, with a 64% median. Zac Robinson will now orchestrate the Atlanta Falcons offense, which is a big reason for optimism regarding Pitts' role this season. He’s expected to stay on the field and see a higher target rate.
Everything points to Pitts putting up better numbers this season if he can stay healthy. There is some uncertainty with the new offensive play-caller, new quarterback, and the limited sample size of tight ends as young as Pitts entering their fourth season. Pitts should be a clear fantasy starter this season, but he will need to find the red zone more often to break into the top five or higher. If everything goes right, he has the potential to be the overall TE1.
Possible Targets: Rashee Rice, Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Terry McLaurin, Jake Ferguson
Round 6, Picks 61-72: Draft a wide receiver or Joe Burrow
This decision is easy because your starting lineup is in good shape outside of wide receiver. Luckily, several wide receivers are either their team's clear top option or a proven second option that’s in a new situation this year.
Top Target: Terry McLaurin (Player Profile)
McLaurin is the perfect example of a good, dependable wide receiver. He hasn’t missed a game over the last three seasons after missing just three games in his first two. He’s caught at least 77 passes and racked up 1,000-plus yards in each of the last four years. Even though the Washington Commanders have gone through a lot of changes this offseason, we can expect a lot more of the same for McLaurin.
Possible Targets: Rashee Rice, Joe Burrow, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Keenan Allen
Round 7, Picks 73-84: Draft a running back or wide receiver
With a top-six quarterback and tight end secured, the next several picks will be some combination of running back and wide receiver. When you have a top-six quarterback or tight end, you’re not benching them because a backup has a better matchup. That means a backup is only necessary in case of injury, so you can draft more running backs and wide receivers, allowing you to make lineup decisions based on matchups and who breaks out.
In this case, a wide receiver is best to pick because several proven players are in new situations this year. Ideally, the new situation allows them to outperform their ADP. If it doesn’t, then hopefully one of the several sleeper wide receivers picked later ends up breaking out.
Top Target: Rashee Rice (Player Profile)
Rice finished as WR27 and was a top-36 wide receiver in nearly 70% of his games despite playing less than 70% of his team's offensive snaps in all but four games. By Week 14, he began receiving playing time comparable to a typical starting wide receiver, playing at least 75% of his team's offensive snaps from Weeks 14-17. During this period, he ranked eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers. In the playoffs, Rice played at least 75% of the Kansas City Chiefs‘ offensive snaps in three of four games, averaging 6.5 receptions for 65.5 yards per game against some of the NFL's best defenses.
If not for the potential suspension, he would be considered a top-10 wide receiver this season. Even if he is suspended for the first six games, his fantasy value would increase simply by knowing he would be available for the fantasy playoffs.
Possible Targets: Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Tony Pollard, Xavier Worthy, Jaylen Warren
Round 8, Picks 85-96: Draft a wide receiver or running back
This team should already have two running backs, but it’s time to pick up a third. There are a few running backs in two-player committees where either has a chance to have a breakout season. The eighth round is the perfect time to pick up one of these running backs because once they are gone, any other running back is much more of a gamble.
Top Target: Tony Pollard (Player Profile)
Pollard has earned the fourth-highest PFF overall grade among running backs over the past four seasons (91.3), behind only Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Expectations were high last season after the Dallas Cowboys let go of Ezekiel Elliott. Unfortunately, it took time for Pollard to recover from his leg injuries from the 2022 divisional playoff round. By Week 11, he was back to his former self. He was the highest-graded rusher from that point on, finishing as RB13. He was finally receiving the playing time he deserved but wasn’t getting the ball enough when he was on the field.
Now, he’s with the Tennessee Titans and competing for playing time with Tyjae Spears. The sophomore running back is also very talented, but given Pollard’s past production, he has a chance to be the lead back in the Joe Mixon role in Brian Callahan’s offense.
Possible Targets: Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze, Devin Singletary, Javonte Williams, Chase Brown
Round 9, Picks 97-108: Draft a running back or Courtland Sutton
There have generally been a few running backs available here are either the lead running back or in a clear two-man competition with a lot of potential. After that, the running back quality drops off significantly. While this team doesn’t necessarily need another running back to achieve the best team, it’s fine to pick a running back here and lean more on wide receivers later.
Top Target: Devin Singletary (Player Profile)
Singletary has consistently graded well as a runner, with a 73.0-plus PFF rushing grade every season and at least a 78.0 mark in each of the past three seasons. He joins the New York Giants this season and should be the featured running back. He played in 29-of-33 snaps with the starters in the second preseason game, making it clear he will see more playing time than the vast majority of running backs picked ahead of him. Typically, feature backs are picked much higher, but he will be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines and has never graded well as a receiver. It's also possible that he won't play on third downs. That should prevent him from getting picked in the first half of drafts, but he can be a steal in the second half.
Possible Targets: Chase Brown, Tyjae Spears, Courtland Sutton, Ezekiel Elliott, Jerome Ford
Round 10, Picks 109-120: Draft a running back or wide receiver
The next four rounds are mostly about picking your guys. If your favorite sleeper quarterback or tight end is available, it’s OK to pick them, but I’d lean toward stocking up on even more running backs and wide receivers. I lean toward picking a running back and wide receiver at each of the next two pairs of picks, picking whichever players are at the top of the board.
Top Target: Tyler Lockett
Lockett had been a consistent fantasy asset with four straight 1,000-yard and eight-plus touchdown seasons, but he gained fewer yards and caught fewer touchdowns last season at 31 years old. His decline was only in his statistics, as his PFF receiving grade was very consistent. He’s finished between 77.0-83.0 in each of the last six seasons. The Seahawks have a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb. While everyone is excited for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, ideally, Grubb will be able to take advantage of Lockett’s talent to keep him fantasy-relevant.
Possible Targets: Ezekiel Elliott, Jerome Ford, Jakobi Meyers, Brandin Cooks, Zach Charbonnet
Round 11, Picks 121-132: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Top Target: Jakobi Meyers
Meyers finished last season as WR24 thanks to 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He’s getting drafted much later than that because he’s the clear second option behind Davante Adams and the Las Vegas Raiders have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league. The Raiders also drafted Brock Bowers in the first round, which could further push Meyers down the target ladder. The quarterback situation was arguably worse last season, and his ADP is much lower than his WR24 finish last season, making him a solid gamble late in drafts.
Possible Targets: Brandin Cooks, Zach Charbonnet, Chuba Hubbard, Mike Williams, Rashid Shaheed
Round 12, Picks 133-144: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Top Target: Chuba Hubbard (Player Profile)
Hubbard was used in a variety of situations over his first two seasons, and his role increased significantly for the 2023 season, playing at least 64% of his team's offensive snaps in each of his last seven games. He finished at least RB28 or better in each of those games including two weeks as a top-12 running back.
The Carolina Panthers added Jonathon Brooks in the draft as the first running back selected, but he is coming off a torn ACL. A few weeks ago, it was reported that Brooks still has a ways to go in his recovery and will likely be eased into training camp. Hubbard has a decent chance to be the starter at least early in the season, and the Panthers shouldn’t rush Brooks. Hubbard is a great gamble this late in the draft as someone capable of being a feature back.
Possible Targets: Brandin Cooks, Rashid Shaheed, Joshua Palmer, Tyler Allgeier, Gabe Davis
Round 13, Picks 145-156: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Top Target: Gabe Davis
Davis spent most of his time in Buffalo as a deep threat who caught a lot of touchdowns but didn’t have a high catch rate. In Jacksonville, he should see more of a complete route tree and see a higher target share. In the first preseason game, he took 100% of snaps with the first-team offense. Calvin Ridley finished as WR17 last season as the top outside receiver in Jacksonville and either Davis or Brian Thomas Jr. could earn that role this season.
Possible Targets: Antonio Gibson, Jaleel McLaughlin, Darnell Mooney, Ja'Lynn Polk, Jahan Dotson
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
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