NFL Week 7 DFS Breakdown: A game-by-game look at the weekend DFS slate

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Estimated Reading Time: 15 minutes

Welcome to the MagicSportsBreakdown!

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This breakdown can be used for cash games, single-entry, three-max and high-dollar GPPs. For max-entering GPPs, use the recommended players to build your player pool (players are listed in order based on exposure). Unless otherwise noted, all pace and pass rates refer to “neutral situations” (+/-8 points).

How do I best use the Sunday A.M. Update?

The “Sunday A.M. Update” offers a game-by-game analysis of the DraftKings main slate, focusing on key injuries, advanced stats, trends and expected pace and playcalling.

I also provide my “optimal lineups” for DraftKings (“DK”). These lineups (“LUs”) consist of 7-of-9 players to comply with DraftKings regulations of not giving out complete teams. One is designed for GPPs, and one is for Cash Games.

In addition to the optimal lineups, I also share my personal “core” player pool (usually 16-20 players) that I’m rolling out in three-max (contests that allow three lineups per user) and other multi-entry GPPs (contests that allow as many as 150 lineups per user).

GAME BREAKDOWNS

Click here to jump to a game:

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS

ATL -3, O/U 51.5
Implied team totals: SEA (24.25), ATL (27.25)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• Atlanta ranks first in neutral pace, while Seattle ranks second. Both teams also rank third in offensive plays per game.

• Geno Smith has been pressured on 39.9% of his dropbacks, resulting in six interceptions and three touchdowns. Under pressure, he has a 52.3% completion rate (5.6 yards per attempt), compared to 78% (7.8 yards per attempt) when kept clean, with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Atlanta ranks 30th in defensive pressure rate and last (32nd) in sack rate.

• Atlanta rushed for a season-high 200 yards on 33 carries against Carolina. Seattle has allowed 6.09 yards per carry over its last three games.

• Seattle has allowed a league-high 9.8 yards per attempt to Daniel Jones, Brock Purdy, and Jared Goff over its last three games. Atlanta ranks seventh in offensive EPA per pass.

• A.J. Terrell has not shadowed since Week 2. Regardless, he has allowed a 76% completion rate and 10.1 yards per reception in coverage.

• Atlanta has allowed significant production to every WR1 they have faced this season.

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TENNESSEE TITANS VS. BUFFALO BILLS

BUF -8.5, O/U 41.5
Implied team totals: TEN (16.5), BUF (25)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• Ray Davis is questionable. James Cook practiced in full on Thursday and Friday and will play after missing Week 6.

• L'Jarius Sneed has not practiced this week.

• Buffalo has faced the 15th-most rushing attempts while allowing the most rushing yards and ranking 26th in PFF’s rush defense grade.

• After catching a break against Houston (with Joe Mixon out), Buffalo was gashed by Breece Hall, who recorded 118 rushing yards on 6.27 yards per carry. Buffalo has allowed the most targets (8.33), receptions, and receiving yards to running backs, along with the second-most fantasy points per game to the position.

• Tennessee ranks third in running back target share (23.1%). With Tyjae Spears out and the Titans projected as 9-point road underdogs, Tony Pollard should be very active in the passing game.

• Khalil Shakir logged three full practices this week after just one limited session in Week 6. With the focus on Amari Cooper’s debut, Shakir is set up well against Tennessee’s defense, which is more vulnerable in the middle of the field. Last week, the Titans allowed Colts slot receiver Josh Downs to post a 6-77-1 line on nine targets. Shakir presents a sub-1% play for GPPs.

• Tennessee ranks first in yards per play allowed but has faced three consecutive backup quarterbacks, two of whom did not have a job at the start of the season.

• Buffalo allows the fewest plays per game to its opponents, while Tennessee averages the 27th-fewest plays per game.

• Tennessee ranks last (32nd) in giveaways per game (2), while Buffalo ranks seventh in takeaways per game (1.7).

CINCINNATI BENGALS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS

CIN -6.5, O/U 42
Implied team totals: CIN (24.25), CLE (17.75)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• Jerome Ford is out, and Nick Chubb is questionable. D’Onta Foreman and Pierre Strong Jr. will be active.

• After Ford exited early last week, Strong played 53% of the snaps compared to 35% for Foreman. With a similar game script likely, a similar split can be expected: Strong is the featured back on passing plays (he ran 15 routes in Week 6), while Foreman handles early downs. If Chubb plays, he should assume the “Foreman role” described above. Cincinnati allows 146.0 rushing yards per game.

• Cincinnati ranks 29th in rushing attempts per game, gaining 72% of their yards through the air.

• Cleveland has trailed by seven or more points for 160 plays (seventh-most), which has led to 33 rushing attempts against them over their last three games (fifth-most).

• Cincinnati ranks 31st in EPA allowed per rush, but their strong offense (fifth in EPA per play) has helped mitigate that weakness.

• Cleveland should look to run the ball more each week if only to shorten what has been a challenging season. However, they enter Week 7 with the seventh-highest neutral pass rate.

• Cincinnati ranks ninth in scoring, averaging just under 30 points per game over its last three games. This has forced opponents to throw more than 40 times per game during that span.

• Cincinnati ranks 30th in defensive sack rate, which gives Cleveland some hope, as they have allowed a league-worst 13.4% sack rate.

• Chase Brown has 27 touches over his last two games compared to Zach Moss’s 15. Brown forced six missed tackles on 10 carries in Week 6, while Moss had just one missed tackle on six carries. Brown also saw his route participation spike to 38.2% last week after averaging 20.8% over his first five games.

• With Amari Cooper traded to Buffalo, David Njoku should step up as the top target earner. He had a team-high seven targets last week in his first game playing more than 40% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps.

• Cincinnati has been a defense to target with tight ends for a few seasons, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position in 2023 and the 12th-most in 2022. After a decent start to this season, they have allowed tight ends to catch 14 of their last 15 targets, including three touchdowns to three different Baltimore tight ends.

• The issue with value plays like Njoku, Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore this week is twofold. First, Deshaun Watson has been underperforming, with zero games over 200 passing yards this season, which is hurting the value of all his receiving weapons. Second, the offense is averaging a league-low 4.1 yards per play over their last three games, scoring just two offensive touchdowns in that span.

HOUSTON TEXANS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS

GB -2.5, O/U 47.5
Implied team totals: HOU (22.5), GB (25)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• Wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks is questionable.

• Houston will be without four defensive starters: Jimmie Ward, Azeez Al-Shaair, Kamari Lassiter and Henry To'oTo'o. Foley Fatukasi is questionable.

• Houston ranks ninth in EPA per pass, an improvement from finishing 12th in 2023.

• Tank Dell had a season-high 91% route participation in Week 6 with Nico Collins on injured reserve. Dell led the team with a 28% target rate and a 43% first-read rate. His average depth of target (aDOT) was down to 8.2 yards from 12.3 with Collins on the field. After starting the season with four catches on 11 targets, Dell has caught 16 of 19 passes from C.J. Stroud. He is one of my favorite low-owned wide receivers on this slate.

• Stefon Diggs posted a 6-77-1 line and saw his aDOT jump from 6.5 yards with Collins in the lineup (first three games) to a season-high 14.6 yards in Week 6.

• 67% of both yards and touchdowns against Green Bay have come via the pass. Sixty-eight percent of Houston's yards have been gained via the pass (67% of their touchdowns).

• 78% of Green Bay's offensive touchdowns have come via the pass.

• C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love are tied for third in the league with eight red-zone touchdown passes. Love has achieved this in two fewer games.

• Green Bay is averaging a league-high 2.8 interceptions per game. Stroud has thrown four interceptions and lost two fumbles in his last two games. The Packers' defense has recorded four games with 10-plus fantasy points and has not dipped below seven fantasy points in any game this season.

• Jordan Love has been a strong fantasy performer (23.8 fantasy points per game) but has made questionable decisions, leading to the second-highest interception rate (Will Levis is first).

• Green Bay is allowing 134 total yards per game to running backs, with 4.65 yards per carry. They gave up nine catches to Arizona running backs last week.

• Joe Mixon caught two of his three targets before exiting early due to the blowout, playing just 45% of offensive snaps.

• Derek Stingley Jr. does not cover the slot, giving Jayden Reed another favorable matchup against Houston’s zone defense. Reed ranks first in fantasy points per route run against zone coverage. He is likely to be under-owned again.

MIAMI DOLPHINS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

IND -3.5, O/U 44
Implied team totals: MIA (20.5), IND (23.5)

• Points per game: Miami 12.0 (32nd), Indianapolis 23.2 (16th)

• Anthony Richardson will start, making it tough to trust any pass catcher with the entire group healthy.

• Jonathan Taylor remains out.

• Tyler “Snoop” Huntley will start for Miami, making this game a tough one to consider unless you’re a mass multi-entry player.

• Miami is in a challenging position, ranking last (32nd) in points per game and averaging just 0.7 offensive touchdowns per game over their last three games under Huntley. While this is a positive matchup, and they had a bye week to make adjustments, it’s still a tough call to invest in them.

• Miami has been a run funnel, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs while ranking 31st against wide receivers.

• Trey Sermon has been terribly inefficient, ranking 111th in expected points added and 61st in yards per touch. On the other end of the spectrum, Tyler Goodson has impressed in his limited work. Goodson is averaging 0.93 fantasy points per touch, which is slightly more efficient than Taylor’s 0.89 average.

• While there may be concerns about Goodson’s pass protection, he is much more explosive than Sermon. In this favorable spot, I’m taking a couple of fliers on him as a very low-owned RB2 option in GPPs.

DETROIT LIONS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

MIN -2.5, O/U 50
Implied team totals: DET (23.75), MIN (26.25)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• Aaron Jones is a game-time decision. If he can’t play, Ty Chandler will start. In a similar spot last season against Detroit, Chandler managed just 17 yards on eight carries. Miles Gaskin and C.J. Ham are expected to handle passing work, which lowers Chandler’s floor and ceiling.

• T.J. Hockenson could make his debut against his former team, but his snaps are likely to be limited. Without a discount on his price ($5.2K), I’m avoiding him this week.

• Detroit will play their first game of the season without All-Pro defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, who was placed on injured reserve.

• Detroit and Minnesota are a combined 9-1 against the spread (ATS).

• Amon-Ra St. Brown excels against zone coverage, and Minnesota runs the fourth-highest percentage of zone coverage.

• Detroit plays a lot of man coverage, which should keep Justin Jefferson very active. He has a 41% target rate against man coverage this season.

• Thanks to their strong rush defenses and their combined 9-1 records, Detroit has faced the lowest rush rate against (Minnesota ranks second-lowest). Conversely, they have faced the highest pass rate against, with Detroit’s opponents passing on 73% of offensive plays.

• The Vikings blitz on 41% of defensive snaps, the second-highest rate in the league. Jameson Williams has a 29% target share against the blitz.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. NEW YORK GIANTS

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• Dallas Goedert is out, while Malik Nabers returns after missing two games with a concussion.

• According to the New York Post, “Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns both practiced, which is good news for their availability on Sunday against the Eagles. The duo were limited and are being listed as questionable.”

• Giants cornerback Adoree' Jackson is out.

• Philadelphia plays man coverage at the fifth-highest rate. Nabers has a 45% target rate against man coverage and a 38% target rate overall.

• The Giants rank first in defensive pressure rate and sack percentage. Philadelphia has faced the second-highest quarterback pressure rate and has been sacked at the 11th-highest rate.

• Jalen Hurts has struggled under pressure, with only Will Levis grading worse per PFF. Hurts is averaging 4.5 yards per attempt under pressure (22nd) but leads the league with 9.6 yards per attempt when kept clean.

• Daniel Jones averaged 47 rushing yards in the two games without Nabers. He ranks fifth in quarterback rushing attempts per game and fourth in red zone rushing attempts among quarterbacks, with 10. Philadelphia allowed seven passing touchdowns in four games before facing Deshaun Watson last week.

• Devin Singletary is back, and I'll be monitoring the split between him and Tyrone Tracy Jr., but neither are DFS options this week.

• Saquon Barkley faces his former team in a revenge game. He was not used in the passing game last week with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith back on the field.

• The Giants' run defense struggled in Weeks 1 and 2 against Aaron Jones and the combination of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler (6.79 yards per carry combined) but has improved, allowing 3.9 yards per carry over the last three games.

• The Giants play man coverage at the 10th-highest rate, setting up A.J. Brown well with his efficiency against man coverage. Brown was the clear alpha in his first game back since Week 1, seeing a 36% target rate and a 42% first-read target rate.

• The tight end position is pivotal in the Eagles' offense, with a 27.2% target share. This puts Grant Calcaterra in play at $3.2K. He stepped into the “Goedert role,” playing 100% of the snaps after Goedert’s injury and matching DeVonta Smith with a 16% target rate.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS

LAR -6.5, O/U 43.5
Implied team totals: LV (18), LAR (25)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• With Davante Adams now with the Jets and Jakobi Meyers listed as doubtful, Las Vegas will need to rely on rookie tight end Brock Bowers as their primary pass catcher. Bowers posted a 27.5% target rate last week in a similar situation. The Rams rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to tight ends and 32nd in DVOA against tight ends.

• Cooper Kupp may return, but confirmation likely won’t come before lineup lock at 1 p.m. ET. Paying up for Kupp may not be necessary in Cash/Single-Entry/3-Max formats, but the appeal is there in large-field GPPs. A suggestion is to place him in the flex with $200 left on the table so you can pivot to Kyren Williams if needed.

• If Kupp is out, both Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington become solid value wide receivers. Fortunately, there are many late-game value options available for swaps, including Xavier Legette, Tre Tucker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Jalen Coker. However, if you cannot be available to make adjustments before the late games, it’s best to fade this situation and target other matchups.

• Williams has averaged 24.5 touches per game at home this season. Las Vegas placed defensive tackle Christian Wilkins on injured reserve in Week 4, and defensive tackle Adam Butler is questionable, leaving their front seven vulnerable (5.2 yards per carry allowed to running backs, tied for fifth-most fantasy points allowed to the position).

• Alexander Mattison has averaged 18 touches over his past two games with Zamir White out. He had a season-high five targets last week with Aidan O’Connell at quarterback. Ameer Abdullah is also in the mix on passing downs, with five targets in Week 6. If White returns to the lineup, this situation is an easy fade for DFS. However, if White remains out, Mattison is a viable option in this favorable matchup against a defense ranked 29th in EPA allowed per rush.

• Tre Tucker was shut out against the Steelers last week but led the team in route participation (82%). This matchup should be better for both Tucker and O’Connell. The Rams have allowed the third-fewest targets to wide receivers but have surrendered seven passing touchdowns (tied for fourth-most). They have also allowed a league-worst 8.4 yards per pass attempt.

CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

WAS -7.5, O/U 51.5
Implied team totals: CAR (22), WAS (29.5)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• Carolina continues to be decimated by injuries on defense, a unit already lacking in talent. Claudin Cherelus, Josey Jewell, Taylor Moton and A'Shawn Robinson are all out, while Jadeveon Clowney is doubtful. Derrick Brown and Shaq Thompson remain on injured reserve.

• On offense, Diontae Johnson and Tommy Tremble are listed as questionable.

• Ja’Tavion Sanders is a viable punt tight end if Tremble is out, given his 72% route participation and 18.4% target rate in Week 6.

• Carolina and Washington are a combined 10-2 to the over this season.

• Washington ranks second in points per game (29.7), while Carolina ranks last in points allowed (33.8).

• Carolina ranks 31st in defensive third-down conversion rate, while Washington ranks second in offensive third-down conversion rate.

• Carolina was last (32nd) in third-down conversion rate under Bryce Young but now has a respectable 40% conversion rate (13th) with Andy Dalton under center. Washington ranks 31st in defensive third-down conversion rate allowed.

• Carolina faces a league-high 34.2 rush attempts per game. For context, Arizona led this stat last season, as they faced 30 rush attempts per game.

• Carolina has allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in four of its six games this season (six in its last two games). Dating back to last season, it has allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in 11 of its last 23 games (32 total).

• Washington ranks first in offensive rushing touchdowns (2.2 per game).

• Washington also ranks last in explosive rush rate allowed. Chuba Hubbard ranks third in explosive rush rate (7%) among running backs with 75-plus carries. He is averaging 22 touches for 123 total yards over his last four games with Andy Dalton at quarterback.

• Noah Brown entered Week 6 with a 37% route participation rate and a 9.4% target rate but reached a season-high 57% route participation. His 23% target rate led the team.

• Jalen Coker ($3K) has leaped Jonathan Mingo, running a route on 73% of Dalton’s dropbacks.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

SF -1.5, O/U 47
Implied team totals: KC (23), SF (24.5)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• According to Yahoo! Sports, “Counting his time as a head coach for both the Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, (Andy) Reid's teams are 21-4 in games played after their regular-season bye. That record and post-bye-week winning percentage (.840) is the best for any NFL head coach who has coached at least 10 games.”

• Kansas City ranks first in defensive pressure rate, while San Francisco ranks seventh in offensive pressure rate allowed.

• Ten quarterbacks on this slate are averaging more fantasy points per game than Patrick Mahomes, yet he remains the fifth-most expensive QB at $7K. With Mahomes averaging just 1.6 fantasy points per game with his legs this season, that price is hard to justify in this matchup (San Francisco, 12th in EPA allowed per play), especially given the numerous quarterback options available.

• Kansas City has also been strong against the run, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs (3.88 yards per carry allowed and second in rush DVOA). Despite facing backs like Derrick Henry, J.K. Dobbins, Bijan Robinson, and Alvin Kamara, the Chiefs have yet to allow a back to reach 50 rushing yards.

• Kareem Hunt recorded 28 touches for 117 total yards and a touchdown against the Saints' weak run defense. While this matchup is tougher, the $6K price tag and his high usage make him worth considering.

• JuJu Smith-Schuster played the “Rashee Rice role” in the last game, finding himself wide open in the middle of the field thanks to clearing routes by Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy. This is one of the best “schematic” roles for a wide receiver this season. Smith-Schuster is listed as questionable but is expected to play.

• Travis Kelce has great splits against San Francisco, averaging 6.2 receptions, 72.6 receiving yards, and 0.04 touchdowns in five games (including the postseason). With Rashee Rice out, Kelce has seen a 28% target rate over the last two games, up from 12% in Weeks 1-3.

• Kansas City has been a “tight end funnel” to start the season, allowing 18.6 fantasy points per game to the position, 25% greater than the Rams, who have allowed the second-most points to tight ends. George Kittle (17.3 fantasy points per game, TE1) is averaging seven-plus targets in San Francisco’s three losses, compared to 5.5 in their two wins.

Sunday A.M. Update

Core Lineups

Cash Lineup (DK)

GPP Lineup (DK)

*This lineup has seven players in the late slate and $600 on the table, allowing us to make late swaps based on injury news (Brian Robinson, Jr., Diontae Johnson, Cooper Kupp).

(Alt) GPP Lineup (DK)

Player Pool (Players I am using but are not listed in the core lineups)

QB

RB

Kyren Williams
Kenneth Walker III (Highest rostered RB not in the optimal lineups).
Bijan Robinson
Kareem Hunt
Chase Brown
Tyler Goodson

WR

TE

D/ST

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