• Isaiah Likely shines in a larger role: Likely wasn’t involved in the Baltimore Ravens offense last season when Mark Andrews was healthy but that wasn’t the case in this game.
• Kansas City Chiefs young wide receivers lead them to victory: Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy were the Chiefs' primary playmakers with Rice's 100 yards and Worthy's two touchdowns, which could be a sign of things to come.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
PFF's fantasy football recap focuses on player usage and stats, breaking down all the vital information you need to achieve fantasy success in 2024.
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Isaiah Likely: 9 receptions, 111 yards, 1 touchdown
- Xavier Worthy: 2 receptions, 47 yards, 1 touchdown, one carry, 21 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown
Isiah Pacheco remains heavily involved: Pacheco only left the field on some third downs despite Samaje Perine‘s presence.
Pacheco seemed on pace for a big season after the team moved on from Jerick McKinnon, but fantasy managers were concerned after the team added Perine to the backfield. This game was more good news than bad for Pacheco, but it’s too early for Pacheco managers to celebrate.
The good news is Pacheco played a high majority of normal early-down situations. He played in 75% of those snaps last year when McKinnon was healthy and 83.3% when he wasn’t. His rate in those situations was even higher this game, as he played all of those snaps in the first half and lost two snaps early in the third quarter when he reportedly vomited before not playing another three later on. Perine played the majority of third downs as expected, but that’s not a big deal for his fantasy value.
The big questions are about the goal line and two-minute drill snaps. Pacheco only played 37% of the snaps when the Chiefs were within five yards of scoring last season when McKinnon was healthy, but that jumped to 68.4% when McKinnon wasn’t. The Chiefs only ran one play within five yards, and Pacheco was on the field, scoring a touchdown. That’s the best thing that could have happened for him on that one play, but it’s still just a sample size of one play. He needs to keep most of these snaps to keep scoring touchdowns.
He played in 23.5% of two-minute drill snaps last season with McKinnon and 66.7% without. Pacheco played the one passing snap within two minutes to end the first half. This is the situation Pacheco is most in danger of losing snaps that matter to his fantasy value, and it’s also the situation you least want someone on the field when they’ve only been on the team for a week. We might not know who plays the majority of these snaps for another month. This is the one situation to monitor for Pacheco going forward. Until then, we can remain cautiously optimistic about his fantasy value.
Chiefs follow a mostly predictable wide receiver rotation: Kansas City’s preseason utilization with the starters remains a strong indication of their early regular season usage.
Rashee Rice was unsurprisingly the Chiefs' top wide receiver, hovering around 80% of Kansas City's offensive snaps, which is similar to his usage to end last season. He was the Chiefs' clear target leader, and he is someone we probably won’t mention much in these articles anymore because he’s a clear top wide receiver now.
Xavier Worthy was the second wide receiver in the pecking order, which included an early touchdown run but not many targets. He was similarly the clear second player in the preseason, playing 19-of-24 snaps with the starters and not much with the backups. Justin Watson was the third receiver. The only question is what will happen when Hollywood Brown is healthy, which could happen as early as next week. It’s possible Brown just replaces Watson’s snaps, but considering Brown, Worthy and Watson are all deep threats, we could see a healthy rotation between the three receivers.
The important part is that the other backup wide receivers weren’t playing many snaps. Mecole Hardman didn’t play on offense and Skyy Moore played much less than last season. It’s possible JuJu Smith-Schuster mixes in a little more over time, but chances are he will just be a backup for Rice. It remains possible Rice, Worthy and Brown all have fantasy value this season.
Isaiah Likely carves out a large role: Likely was much more involved in this game compared to last season when Andrews was healthy.
Last season, Andrews was playing 75% of Baltimore's offensive snaps when healthy, and Likely was only playing 7-35%in those games. Once Andrews was out with injury, Likely completely took over, with a median of 74% of snaps.
The Ravens made 12 personnel their base offense even during two-minute drills, allowing both Andrews and Likely to be on the field at the same time. Prior to the final drive, they played 32 snaps out of 12 personnel together, which was the most snaps they’ve played together in a game. They maxed out at 16 in a game last season.
In 11 personnel, Andrews played 11 snaps to Liekly's nine. In the first half, Andrews played seven-of-eight and in the second, Likely played eight-of-13. The fact that Likely was cutting into Andrews’ time in 11 personnel should be concerning for Andrews’ fantasy managers. From Weeks 2-10 last season, Andrews played in over 90% of Baltimore's 11 personnel snaps. Likely played with Charlie Kolar in 22 personnel while Andrews was the primary tight end in 21 personnel.
It’s going to be difficult for Likely to maintain this fantasy value because there were so many pass plays where he wasn’t on the field, and the Ravens aren’t likely to pass this much in most games. Still, it’s possible he earns more playing time, and he also has more upside than roughly half the other starting tight ends in the NFL. While I’d hesitate to put Likely in my fantasy starting lineup next week, he could very well be better than whoever you have as a backup on your roster.
It’s worth noting Likely took a big hit with 10 seconds left in the game. He landed awkwardly on his arm and stayed on the ground for an extended period of time. He sat out for a play and was able to return to the game to attempt a game-tying touchdown catch. The fact that he returned to the game is a good sign for him, but it will be worth monitoring his health.
A familiar running back rotation for Baltimore: Justice Hill ended up playing roughly as much as Derrick Henry.
Hill played 83.4% of Baltimore's two-minute drill snaps, 67.9% of third-and-3 or more snaps last season but just 34.2% in all other situations. Henry was the opposite of this with the Tennessee Titans last season, playing 6.7% of two-minute drill snaps, 2.8% of third-and-3+ and 73.1% of early-down snaps.
It should be no surprise that Hill played in the clear passing situations whule Henry the clear leader in rushing situations. This was a game where Baltimore was behind late in the first quarter and spent the rest of the game playing from behind. While it’s fine to be concerned about Henry’s efficiency, this utilization shouldn’t surprise anyone. The Ravens should be winning most of their games this season, which will leave them in different game scripts and more opportunities for Henry to succeed.
Miscellaneous Notes
- Travis Kelce played in over 80% of Kansas City's offensive snaps, which is something he only does in important games. He did it five times in the regular season, including in games against the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals. He also did it in all four playoff games. We can expect his snap rate to dip a little below 80% in other regular season games this season.
- Zay Flowers had four targets on plays that were all called back due to penalty. His target share was already high before accounting for this and appears to be a steal based on where he was being drafted.
- Rashod Bateman was a clear starting wide receiver for Baltimore as expected. This was his first time playing over 80% of Baltimore's offensive snaps since the last four weeks of his rookie season.
- Ravens fourth-round rookie wide receiver Devontez Walker was a healthy inactive for the Ravens.
- Chiefs wide receiver Hollywood Brown missed this game due to injury while recent tight end addition Peyton Hendershot was a healthy inactive.
- Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is on the non football injury list. He missed this game and will miss the next four. A month ago, Edwards-Helaire opened up about his struggles with PTSD.
Table Notes
- Snaps include plays called back due to penalties, including offensive holding or defensive pass interference. The other three stats have these plays removed.
- Targets may differ from official NFL sources. The most likely discrepancy would be from a clear thrown-away pass, where the NFL may give the target to the nearest receiver, while this data will not.
- Carries are only on designed plays. Quarterback scrambles won’t count for the total number of carries in the game.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.