Fantasy Football: Darkhorse candidates to finish as the overall RB1 in 2024

• Rachaad White needs to keep his momentum going in his second year as a starter: A top-five finish last season could have been better with above-average efficiency and more scoring opportunities, which could come in 2024.

• James Cook has everything going for him except goal-line touches: With the potential to get more short-yardage work in 2024, Cook has the kind of workload we can target for RB1 upside.

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Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes

Oftentimes, the annual RB1 for fantasy football purposes is already being drafted as a top-10 player at his position — and, for the most part, inside the top five. Over the past 10 seasons, the overall PPR RB1 has been drafted inside the top six at his position 60% of the time, with only a few truly deep outliers making it too far beyond that range, including Le’Veon Bell in 2014 (RB14 ADP) and 2015's Devonta Freeman, who was drafted as RB40 that year.

Considering these odds, we won’t venture too far from the top six into that RB40 range, instead focusing on running backs going outside the top 10 at their positional ADP. To find these darkhorses, we’ll study the recipe for success from years past. At the very least, we'll hope for similar success to last season, when all three darkhorse options finished among the top eight in PPR formats.

Before we get into this year’s darkhorse RB1 candidates, we need to understand what allows a player to top their positional scoring.

The first thing that stands out is that each player posted more than 20 PPR points per game, which is a significant mark to push for each week, creating elite consistency and the highest of fantasy floors.

Each of these past RB1s missed no more than one game during the fantasy season, so staying healthy plays a significant part in one's ability to top the leaderboard by the end of the year.

It’s also worth noting that four of these six players were 25 years old or younger, which has been the case each year for the past 11 seasons, with Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler and Jamaal Charles as the outliers in 2023, 2022 and 2013, respectively.

Next, looking at what each back did as a runner should give us an idea of the type of workload to target and what to expect from a touchdown standpoint.

Nine hundred rushing yards was the floor for each of the past RB1s, and while Jonathan Taylor’s 1,811 yards is the highest ceiling, that level of production isn't necessary to reach RB1 — although it certainly doesn’t hurt.

What is important is converting touches into at least double-digit touchdowns on the ground.

Interestingly, the RB1 also doesn’t have to come from a run-heavy offense, as evidenced by three of them being on teams that ranked 25th or lower in overall team run rate. Being the team’s primary runner with little competition matters much more.

For PPR purposes, what each player adds as a receiver is important — unless they can run for more than 1,800 yards like Taylor.

2021 aside, most of these PPR RB1s saw more than 100 targets on the year, averaging a minimum of 4.9 targets per game. The other exception was McCaffrey last season, who was able to make up for that with seven receiving touchdowns.

Combining that opportunity for receiving touches with the double-digit carries per game will be crucial.

It also won’t hurt to convert some of those targets into touchdowns, especially for Ekeler and Kamara, who were the only ones to post fewer than 1,000 rushing yards. But they made up for it by scoring five receiving touchdowns.

One other important piece to look at is the team around these players and how effective their offense can be.

Each NFL offense that produced the overall RB1 finished inside the top five in the league in either total plays in the red zone or total plays inside the five-yard line. Getting opportunities within those high-scoring areas of the field is crucial.

As for overall scoring, being at least above average in that regard should be considered the minimum goal to accomplish.

With all of this in mind, let’s take a look at this year’s darkhorse candidates going outside the top 10 in ADP who have a shot to be the 2024 PPR RB1.

Best shot: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Sleeper ADP: RB13
• Underdog ADP: RB15
• ESPN ADP: RB15

White stands out as, arguably, the best bet to deliver as the 2024 darkhorse RB1 after getting optimal usage in 2023, averaging nearly 20 opportunities (carries and targets) per game for the season. He finished as the PPR RB5 and is now being drafted outside the top 12 running backs by ADP, despite not much changing in his situation. The Bucs did spend a fourth-round pick on Bucky Irving, who earned strong marks in his college career, but it’s hard to imagine the team letting a rookie work too much into White’s role this season.

Tampa Bay’s offense has the pieces to potentially improve from last season, when the unit ranked below average in offensive scoring (20th), goal-line plays (32), and red-zone plays (137). That would be a big boost for White, who was the clear option for Tampa Bay in those scoring situations, handling 94% of goal-line snaps and 91% of red-zone snaps. White would stand to gain a lot from those high-value touches, especially as the bigger back compared to the sub-200-pound Irving.

White’s workload is going to be the greatest key to his getting back in that top-five range, where 15.8 carries per game and 4.1 targets per game is about the ideal threshold we’re looking for. What held White back last season was that he wasn’t overly efficient with his touches, earning just a 69.5 PFF rushing grade (35th) and producing 0.15 missed forced tackles per attempt (tied for 31st), a 17% first down-plus-touchdown per carry rate (tied for 55th) and 2.56 yards after contact per attempt (37th) during the fantasy season (Weeks 1-17).

Improving as a runner in Year 3 will surely help those efficiency numbers and could be a significant key to add to his already elite workload in delivering an overall RB1 finish. Should Tampa Bay’s offense also improve enough to allow for more scoring opportunities, then White is easily going to outperform his current ADP and push for RB1.

Medium shot: James Cook, Buffalo Bills

• Sleeper ADP: RB14
• Underdog ADP: RB13
• ESPN ADP: RB13

Cook is being drafted ahead of Rachaad White on some platforms, which could technically make him our best shot at finishing as the darkhorse RB1, but as someone who has White ranked ahead of Cook this season, I found more encouragement for White than Cook. That being said, Cook is still a strong choice — and one that, with the right treatment in Buffalo, could greatly exceed expectations after finishing as the PPR RB9 in 2023.

Cook stands to be the clear lead back in Buffalo, as he was in 2023 when he averaged 17.1 opportunities per game (14.0 carries and 3.1 targets). However, after Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator ahead of Week 11, Cook averaged 17.0 carries per game and 4.2 targets per game (21.2 opportunities per game) including the playoffs. This usage carrying over into 2024 would provide a substantial boost to Cook, who ranked as the PPR RB8 during that regular-season span with Brady as offensive coordinator.

The biggest barrier for Cook last season in reaching his potential ceiling in that offense and with those opportunities came when the Bills reached the goal line. He was not their go-to option in those high-scoring situations — the key deciding factor in pushing White ahead of Cook in this article, despite the Bills’ offense being better and getting into those high-scoring areas more often.

Even with Brady installed as offensive coordinator, Cook managed only two goal-to-go carries out of a possible 16 team rush attempts (13%), and that was typical of his usage before Brady (Weeks 1-10), when he saw just 14% of the team rush attempts in those situations. For Cook to deliver on his darkhorse RB1 potential, he must see an uptick in usage around the goal line and hold off players like Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, who are more likely to get that work, which is already limited and dominated by quarterback Josh Allen.

Brady did at least express some confidence recently about Cook in short-yardage situations, so if that comes to fruition, he’ll put these concerns to bed.

Long shot: James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

• Sleeper ADP: RB19
• Underdog ADP: RB22
• ESPN ADP: RB23

When it comes to long shots as our darkhorse RB1, Conner checks a decent amount of boxes. He is on the older side (29), but the last two fantasy RB1s — Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler — were both beyond the typical 25-year age mark. Helping Conner’s case is that he’s also coming off the best season of his career and has the potential to keep that momentum going on an improved offense in 2024.

Conner ranked among the top 10 running backs in PFF rushing grade (88.4), yards after contact per attempt (3.93), missed tackles forced per attempt (0.29) and first down-plus-touchdown rate (27.4%). Impressively, he did that behind the 26th-ranked run-blocking unit last season, and the hope is that the additions of Jonah Williams and Evan Brown and 2023 sixth overall pick Paris Johnson developing in Year 2 will lead to better play in the trenches.

Conner averaged a strong 17.3 opportunities per game last season (15.1 carries and 2.3 targets), which was well above average for the position. However, to maintain that workload, he’ll have to hold off Trey Benson — a third-round rookie — and not allow him to be anything more than a backup.

Conner saw the majority of goal-line work last season, with 52% of the team carries and 54% of red-zone carries. That is a promising sign the team will continue to deploy him in high-value fantasy situations, especially if the Cardinals can improve to above average in that regard this season.

While Conner is a long shot for RB1, he has a lot going for him. There is also plenty that could go wrong, as he has a lengthy injury history. But when it comes to good running backs who should see volume in good offenses, Conner is one of the best bets beyond the top 20.