Fire & Ice: Top starts, sits and sleepers in fantasy football and DFS for Week 18

• Stay away from Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, and Houston Texans starters in Week 18: With their playoff seeding locked up, or all but locked up, these five teams will likely be resting their key starters in Week 18. The Los Angeles Chargers would be added to this list if the Pittsburgh Steelers win on Saturday night.

• Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold and WR Jordan Addison are the QB-WR stack to target in DFS lineups: If the Minnesota Vikings want to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, they will need to keep up with the Detroit Lions’ high-powered offense. The good news is that should be an easy task against an injury-riddled defense that cannot stop anybody as of late.

• 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF's best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.

Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes

With so many teams resting starters for the playoffs, you may be struggling to set your Week 18 DFS lineups. Hopefully, I can help! Below you can find my top fire (boom), sleeper (risky but high upside) and ice (bust) players at each position for Week 18.

Don’t miss my Fire & Ice chart at the bottom of this page. There, I have listed out all of my fire, good, sleeper and ice plays for Week 18 of the 2024 fantasy football season.

Quarterbacks

Fire QB Start of the Week: Sam Darnold (at DET)

FanDuel Cost: $8,100 – 7th among QBs

The Detroit Lions–Minnesota Vikings showdown on Sunday night should be the highest-scoring game of the weekend as the two teams battle for the NFC North division title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Of course, Jared Goff is a great fantasy play. Still, I think Sam Darnold will put up the bigger fantasy performance among the two … Simply because the Vikings' defense is much scarier than the Lions' decimated defense.

Since Week 13, the Lions have allowed Josh Allen (41.3), Brock Purdy (30.3) and Caleb Williams (26.1 an 22.8) to all have massive games against them.

Sleeper QB of the Week: Russell Wilson (vs. CIN)

FanDuel Cost: $7,300 – 17th among QBs

It has been a brutal stretch for Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers offense, but things should get back on track this Saturday night against a leaky Cincinnati Bengals defense. No defense has allowed more points per game (34.9) or yards per play (6.5) when they faced an opponent that has a winning record in 2024 than the Bengals.

The Bengals have faced eight teams with a winning record this season — the opposing starting quarterback in each of those seven games scored at least 22 fantasy points. Five of the last seven such quarterbacks scored at least 26 fantasy points, including Russell Wilson who scored a season-high 26.9 points in Week 13 in Cincinnati.

Ice QB Start of the Week: Justin Herbert (at LV)

FanDuel Cost: $7,700 – 10th among QBs

Justin Herbert has scored fewer than 15 points in over 50% of his games played in 2024 (nine of 16 games), including his 10.4-point performance against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1. Despite being knocked out of the playoffs, the Raiders defense is still playing tough and they have not allowed an opposing quarterback to hit 20 fantasy points in any of their last six games.

Plus, if the Steelers win on Saturday night, there will be no reason for the Los Angeles Chargers to play their key starters much in this game as they will be locked into the No. 6 seed no matter if they win or lose.

Running Backs

Fire RB Start of the Week: Bucky Irving (vs. NO)

FanDuel Cost: $7,900 – 10th among RBs

In the five games that Bucky Irving has played at least 50% of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ snaps, he has averaged 23 fantasy points. Four of those five games have come since Week 12 with the team starting to lean on and trust their rookie more and more as the season progressed. The New Orleans Saints’ run defense has struggled as of late — they even let Ameer Abdullah gain 115 rush yards and 147 scrimmage yards against them last week.

Sleeper RB of the Week: Jaylen Warren (vs. CIN)

FanDuel Cost: $5,800 – 38th among RBs

Najee Harris, not Jaylen Warren, had a monster fantasy day against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13 … but things have shifted in the Pittsburgh Steelers backfield since that game. Warren has well out-snapped Harris over the last month (56.4% to 37.9%), and he has shown to be the much more explosive back in Arthur Smith’s offense.

Warren has scored 14-plus fantasy points in back-to-back weeks and put up season-highs 71 rush yards and 112 scrimmage yards last weekend against the Kansas City Chiefs‘ tough defense. The Bengals have been allowing a lot of receptions to running backs as of late, while Warren has had at least four targets in six of the last seven games, with five receptions in each of the last two weeks.

Ice RB Start of the Week: De’Von Achane (at NYJ)

FanDuel Cost: $8,000 – 9th among RBs

With Tua Tagovailoa still trying to recover from a hip injury, the Miami Dolphins are prepping for QB Tyler Huntley to start in their must-win Week 18 game. In the five games that Tagovailoa has missed in 2024, De’Vone Achane has scored just 9, 6, 3, 10 and 6 fantasy points.

Achane has been thriving on a heavy target volume with Tagovailoa, but Huntley targeted Achane just twice in Week 17. The New York Jets allowed Achane to put up just 24 yards on 14 carries in their Week 14 matchup, and his five receptions saved him from having a terrible fantasy day.

Wide Receivers

Fire WR Start of the Week: Jordan Addison (at DET)

FanDuel Cost: $7,100 – 20th among WRs

I want every piece of this game that I can get. Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown will be highly coveted fantasy options this week, but Jordan Addison might be the best value in this matchup. Addison has been highly involved in the Minnesota Vikings’ offense. with at least eight targets in each of the last four games. No player has more receiving touchdowns (seven) than Addison since Week 11.

The Lions have allowed the most receiving yards and second-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position in 2024. There will be plenty of points to go around for both Jefferson and Addison in Week 18.

Sleeper WR Start of the Week: Alec Pierce (vs. JAX)

FanDuel Cost: $5,800 – 52nd among WRs

Anthony Richardson has officially been ruled out, so Joe Flacco will start again for the Indianapolis Colts in Week 18. Alec Pierce has scored 18-plus fantasy points in three of the five games that Flacco started this season, including an 18.1 and 24.2 fantasy performance in his last two starts.

Flacco started in the Colts’ first season matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 5, and he hit Piece for 134 receiving yards and a touchdown in that game.

Ice WR Start of the Week: DK Metcalf (at LAR)

FanDuel Cost: $7,200 – 19th among WRs

Shockingly, DK Metcalf’s consensus rank and DFS price continue to put him as a top-20 option, despite him not finishing as a top-20 producer at the wide receiver position since Week 7. He has been nearly unplayable lately while finishing as the WR35 or worse in fantasy points in five of the last six weeks. Metcalf has just three receptions in each of the last three games and has not hit 70 receiving yards in a game since Week 11.

Tight Ends

Fire TE Start of the Week: Pat Freiermuth (vs. CIN)

FanDuel Cost: $5,500 – 12th among TEs

Freiermuth has been a solid fantasy producer, scoring at least 11 fantasy points in four of the last five weeks. He led the Pittsburgh Steelers with seven receptions and 60 yards on Christmas Day in a favorable matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs and now, he gets another great matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points and second-most touchdowns to tight ends this season. Freiermuth put up a season-high 18.8 points in his Week 13 matchup against the Bengals.

Sleeper TE of the Week: Kyle Pitts (vs. CAR)

FanDuel Cost: $5,300 – 18th among TEs

Finally, Kyle Pitts did something, anything, last weekend. Pitts scored 14.4 fantasy points in Week 17, after scoring just 24 points from Weeks 9-16 combined (7 games). It is definitely a risk to start Pitts but he has a fantastic matchup this Sunday and should be in good spirits after catching the game-tying touchdown that brought the Atlanta Falcons to overtime against the Washington Commanders last week.

The Carolina Panthers have allowed the most receiving touchdowns and second-most fantasy points to tight ends this year. Pitts had 70 receiving yards against them in Week 6 – one of just three games this season that he has hit 60 receiving yards.

Ice TE Start of the Week: Jonnu Smith (at NYJ )

FanDuel Cost: $6,300 – 6th among TEs

Jonnu Smith saved his fantasy day with a touchdown in Week 17 with Tyler Huntley under center … but he saw just four targets all game long, leading to only three receptions for 26 yards. Plus, the New York Jets are not a favorable matchup for tight ends. Due to his big overtime performance, Smith came through with a good game against the Jets in Week 14, but he had zero fantasy points in regulation. His price is not worth the risk if Tua Tagovailoa is sidelined.

Fire & Ice Fantasy Football Plays

Here, I categorize every relevant fantasy player into five different buckets: (1) fire starts (best starts of the week); (2) thumbs up (good starts); (3) Risky players with upside (sleepers); (4) Ice starts (predicting bad performance from good player); (5) Stop (must sits).

Note: If a player/defense is not listed, I either expect them not to play in Week 18 or am not considering starting them in fantasy lineups.