Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score stats to advanced metrics available in PFF's Premium Stats 2.0 and models like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I have developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for an in-depth explanation of the model, my process and its advantages.
Week 17 Recap
- WR9 Michael Pittman Jr.: 25.9 PPR Points
- WR27 Jakobi Meyers: 17.1
- WR28 Courtland Sutton: 16.5
- WR29 Marvin Harrison Jr.: 15.6
- WR40 Tre Tucker: 10.9
- WR51 Joshua Palmer: 8.1
- WR63 Jalen Coker: 5.5
The model did quite well in week 17, with one top-10 identification and four top-30 picks. From a simple list of seven “non-elite” players, I would consider that impressive. Pittman was specifically a great call by both the model and my write-up on him from last week.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES: WEEK 18
As a quick reminder of how regression-to-the-mean models work, I predict a player’s FPpG based on their three-week PWOPR (explained more here).
PWOPR is much more stable than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future performance. To identify potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a good PWOPR and a residual of -3 or lower appear on this list. Players will continue to appear until one of the following occurs:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big game
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG
Courtland Sutton retains the top spot on our list for a second consecutive week. Sutton delivered a solid performance last week but fell short of the model’s predicted opportunity. This week, he faces the Kansas City Chiefs in a pivotal game for the Broncos. The Chiefs lead the league in middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) coverage rates and in showing MOFO before ultimately playing it. While Bo Nix struggles against MOFO, ranking eighth-worst in PFF grade versus this coverage type, Sutton’s grade also dips from 73.4 to 66.2 in MOFO situations. Despite the unfavorable matchup, the potential for the Chiefs to rest starters leaves room for Sutton to find success.
Marvin Harrison Jr. reappears on the list with a matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, who run the second-highest rate of middle-of-the-field-closed (MOFC) coverage in the NFL. Unlike Sutton, Harrison maintains consistency in MOFC situations, with his PFF grade holding steady and his target rate increasing by 2%. This matchup puts him in a slightly better position to thrive.
Zay Flowers draws a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who employ the sixth-highest rate of showing MOFC and then playing MOFC. Flowers excels in these situations, seeing his PFF grade rise from 84.0 to 90.0 and his target rate increase by 2%. This matchup could play to his strengths.
Jauan Jennings faces the Arizona Cardinals, who run the eighth-highest MOFO rate in the league. MOFO coverage often suppresses elite wide receiver performances, and with Brock Purdy sidelined, Jennings may face additional challenges. However, in Kyle Shanahan's system, those challenges might be mitigated. Jennings' grade and target rate remain unchanged in MOFO situations.
This week could be a breakout opportunity for Tre Tucker, a player who has consistently excelled on route-based metrics throughout the season. Tucker faces a Los Angeles Chargers defense that ranks in the top 10 in team PFF coverage grade, fewest explosive passing plays allowed, and lowest average depth of target (aDOT) allowed. If the Chargers rest their starters, Tucker’s outlook could improve significantly.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a favorable matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team that has been a pass-funnel defense this season. Tampa Bay boasts a strong run defense grade (72.0, sixth-best) but struggles in coverage, with a team PFF grade of just 51.0 (third-worst). The Buccaneers also allow a 9.4 aDOT (seventh-highest), aligning well with Valdes-Scantling’s strengths as a deep threat.
Brandin Cooks steps into the WR1 role for the Dallas Cowboys with CeeDee Lamb on IR. He faces the Washington Commanders, who employ average rates of MOFO and MOFC coverage and possess a middling team coverage grade of 57. While this is a solid matchup for Cooks, there’s no overwhelming advantage to exploit.
Demarcus Robinson is set to face the Seattle Seahawks, but with starters resting in preparation for the playoffs, his snap count is uncertain. If he does see significant playing time, Robinson benefits from Seattle’s high MOFO rates, where his PFF grade improves from 65.0 to 72.0. However, his target rate remains consistent.
As always, not every player on this list will deliver, but several are well-positioned to exceed their recent average PPR, with a few potentially delivering explosive performances.
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