• Rashee Rice was amazingly efficient for a rookie: Rice's performance on a per-play basis is comparable to that of elite NFL wide receivers.
• Rome Odunze had excellent numbers in college: It’s easy to see why he was a top-10 draft pick, given his production at Washington the past two seasons.
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Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
These breakouts are three younger players who have an ADP from the fifth to the 10th rounds, have ranked notably higher than their ADP and expect to be consistent fantasy starters this season.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Sunday, September 1
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 6.01, From consensus ADP)
Rice made an immediate impact in his first game, recording 29 yards and a touchdown on three receptions. Despite Kansas City's inconsistency at the position and Rice's impressive per-play performance, he didn't play more than 55% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps until Week 7.
Rice continued to excel on a per-play basis with this larger sample of snaps. By Week 14, he began receiving playing time comparable to a typical starting wide receiver, playing at least 75% of Kansas City's offensive snaps from Weeks 14-17. During this period, he ranked eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers. In the playoffs, Rice played at least 75% of Kanas City's offensive snaps in three of four games, averaging 6.5 receptions for 65.5 yards per game against some of the NFL's best defenses.
Rice is potentially facing a suspension following his arrest after a car accident. The most recent reports say he won’t be set on the commissioner’s exempt list and won’t be suspended until the legal situation plays out, which is unlikely to be finished this season. His ADP has begun skyrocketing on best ball platforms, while redraft platforms have slowly but surely started to catch up. He is the best value on some of those platforms at the moment.
Rice was used uniquely last season: He was the primary X receiver in two-receiver sets and the primary slot receiver in three-receiver sets. This is the best combination of roles a wide receiver can have; CeeDee Lamb is the only other receiver expected to have that role this season.
Rice's primary competition for targets remains Travis Kelce. The Chiefs retained most of their wide receiver rotation from last season, except for Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Richie James. They upgraded with Hollywood Brown and first-round pick Xavier Worthy, both of whom add speed and the ability to separate, likely leading to more deep passes. Fortunately, their skill sets differ enough from Rice's that they won't compete heavily for the same targets. The Chiefs have a history of easing in rookie wide receivers, as seen with Rice last year and Skyy Moore the year before, so we might not see much of Worthy early in the season.
Through two preseason games, Rice has played 23-of-24 snaps with the starters, including having six targets on 17 routes. If Rice can maintain his 25.5% target rate with increased snaps, it would be excellent for his fantasy value. However, it might decrease slightly as the Chiefs emphasize deep throws more often.
Rice finished as WR27 and was a top-36 wide receiver in nearly 70% of his games despite playing less than 70% of offensive snaps in all but four games. If you’re in a league where others haven’t fully kept up with the news, he is the easiest draft pick to make all draft regardless of where you’re picking in the fifth round.
Editor's note: For a more complete look on Rice this season, check out his full Player Profile.
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears (ADP: 8.03)
Odunze was an incredibly productive starter for Washington over the past two seasons, putting up some of the best cumulative and rate numbers among all college football wide receivers. His 1,639 receiving yards ranked first among Power Five wide receivers last season, helping him get selected as the ninth overall pick.
Odunze should make several big plays in his first year. PFF's draft guide calls him a super-sized Chris Olave, and he is the best contested-catch receiver in the class. Over the past two seasons, no wide receiver in college football tallied more deep targets or deep receiving yards.
He projects to be an outside wide receiver in the NFL. His 88.8 PFF receiving grade when lined up out wide was the highest among all Power Five receivers. Seven wide receivers were selected in the first half of the first round from 2021-2023 and six finished as top-32 fantasy wide receivers, except Jameson Williams, who came into the NFL with an ACL tear.
The reason Odunze isn’t drafted as highly as the other rookie wide receivers selected in the top 10 of the NFL Draft is due to his competition for touches. He should constantly be on the field in three-receiver sets, and the Bears' talented veteran receivers should take pressure off him, but there aren’t enough targets to go around. D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen are two of the eight NFL wide receivers with at least 500 targets over the past four seasons, and both were already looking at a decline in targets before Odunze’s arrival.
In the first preseason game with the starters, Odunze played all 11 snaps in three-receiver sets, but none of the nine snaps in other personnel groupings. In the second game, D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen only played on the first three drives over nine plays. Odunze played all six snaps in three-receiver sets and took one snap from Allen in a two-receiver set. Both Caleb Williams and Odunze continued for another two drives, in which Odunze played every down. It’s clear the Bears are comfortable with Odunze playing in every situation, they are just currently more comfortable with Allen in two-receiver sets. If that changes, it could be huge for Odunze’s fantasy production.
The Chicago Bears have a new offensive playcaller and quarterback. Shane Waldron spent the past three seasons as the Seattle Seahawks‘ offensive coordinator and passed more than expected, especially considering the Seahawks' reputation of being a running team. The focus was always on the wide receivers — D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The bad news is he ran the fewest plays in the NFL in two of his three seasons there.
There is also a concern that the Bears have only used 11 personnel on 37.4% of snaps in the first two preseason games which are the fewest for teams. They’ve used it on 51.4% of plays on the first three drives and 30.6% beyond that, so this might not be as concerning as appears, but does speak to the need for Odunze to play every down to reach his potential.
Odunze is a very talented player who is limited by his situation. Luckily, there are some realistic scenarios where he can be a top-20 wide receiver this season, especially if either Moore or Allen suffers an injury.
Editor's note: For a more complete look on Odunze this season, check out his full Player Profile.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 9.05)
Thomas’ college production made him draftable, but his potential made him a first-round pick. The 6-foot-3 speedster ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. Over the past decade, the only other 6-foot-3 receivers with comparable 40 times are Julio Jones, D.K. Metcalf, Chris Conley and Kevin White. Thomas is also only 21 years old, making him one of the youngest wide receivers in the NFL. This gives him a lot of long-term potential, but he also might take more time to develop.
The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley in free agency and released Zay Jones. The team added Thomas in the draft and Gabe Davis in free agency to be the outside wide receivers. One of the two outside wide receivers will likely be a fantasy starter this season after Ridley finished as WR18 last season with eight touchdowns.
Christian Kirk remains in the slot, and if the first preseason game is any indication, he will not play ing much in two wide receiver sets. The Jaguars only ran two plays out of 12 personnel, but it was Thomas and Davis on the field. Thomas took all nine snaps with the starters in their first game.
The Jaguars rested most starters in the second game but elected to give the rookie more experience. He played 22-of-29 snaps on the first two drives, which seems concerning, but it’s normal enough for wide receivers to take some plays off when drives drag on too long. Thomas played each of the first six plays on both drives regardless of personnel grouping.
Trevor Lawrence’s three-year passing grade is low due to his rookie season, but he has graded out in the high 70s in each of the past two years. He targets wide receivers more than most quarterbacks and doesn’t scramble as much as others.
That combines well with Jaguars offensive coordinator Press Taylor, who tends to run a lot of plays, is more pass-heavy and deploys a heavy dose of 11 personnel. Jacksonville's offseason investments suggest that will continue.
Thomas should have a high floor, thanks to potentially running a high number of pass routes per game. The odds of him working out immediately might be a little lower than other wide receivers since he is more of a project, but his current ADP is WR49, making him well worth the risk.
Editor's note: For a more complete look on Thomas Jr. this season, check out his full Player Profile.
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