• Kyle Pitts had a lot working against him: Pitts was rotated out more than nearly all starting tight ends. He also had an abnormally high average target depth and played with quarterbacks who struggled to throw accurate intermediate and deep passes.
• Jake Ferguson improved throughout 2023: He wasn’t a fantasy starter the first few weeks of the season but was consistent down the stretch and saved his best performance for the playoffs.
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Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
These three potential breakout players have youth on their side, an ADP from the fifth to the 10th rounds and are ranked notably higher than their ADP.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Thursday, Aug. 29
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 5.11, From consensus ADP)
Pitts is a very talented tight end who has consistently underperformed in fantasy football. His 82.4 PFF receiving grade over the last three seasons is the fifth-best among tight ends, behind Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert. His yards per route run average ranks sixth, behind those four and Sam LaPorta. His production in various situations also places him among the league's best tight ends. Although he is average when lined up at a specific tight end position, he does so less often than nearly all other tight ends.
Pitts' utilization has been a major problem. Last season, he played over 75% of Atlanta's offensive snaps in only two games, with a median of 64%. He was frequently rotated out, especially on early downs and even in 11 personnel, as the Falcons often used three or four tight ends in rotation. Arthur Smith’s offense was also very run-heavy, which left Pitts averaging around 27 routes per game.
Another problem has been where Pitts' targets come from. He has caught 72 of his 138 targets with a 10-plus-yard target depth, leading to 1,442 yards. Only Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Pitts have 70-plus receptions and 1,400-plus yards on such passes while all other tight ends have fewer than 55 receptions and under 1,000 yards in this range.
Conversely, Pitts has caught 77 of his 111 targets for 607 yards on sub-nine-air-yard targets thrown, ranking 23rd at the position in yards on those passes. He trails tight ends such as Tyler Conklin, Austin Hooper, Jonnu Smith, Darren Waller (who has been mostly injured) and Trey McBride (who has played in only two of the last three seasons). So, Pitts has not seen nearly enough short targets. Last season, Smith received more targets, receptions, and yards on shorter passes than Pitts.
Zac Robinson will now orchestrate the Falcons offense, which is a big reason for optimism regarding Pitts' role this season. With the Los Angeles Rams — where Robinson served as pass game coordinator and quarterbacks coach — Tyler Higbee was often the primary tight end. Despite missing some time in 2023, Higbee finished top-10 in routes run in both 2021 and 2022.
The other big improvement is in the quarterback position with Kirk Cousins. Pitts dealt with Desmond Ridder, Marcus Mariota and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback over the past two seasons—those signal-callers combined for a 54.5 PFF passing grade in that span, ranking second-worst in the NFL. The group recorded the eighth-highest rate of uncatchably inaccurate passes of 10 or more yards (38.4%). Meanwhile, new Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins posted the third-best rate (29.0%) over that span.
We expect Atlanta to have one of the largest improvements in team passing grade this season. Atlanta's figure finished at 49.4 last season, and Cousins' worst season of the past six years is 76.1.
Everything points to Pitts putting up better numbers this season if he can stay healthy. There is some uncertainty with the new offensive playcaller, new quarterback, and the limited sample size of tight ends as young as Pitts entering their fourth season. Pitts should be a clear fantasy starter this season, but he will need to find the red zone more often to break into the top five or higher. If everything goes right, he has the potential to be the overall TE1.
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 7.07)
Ferguson was a Dallas Cowboys fourth-round draft pick 2022 to serve as Dalton Schultz‘s backup. The former Wisconsin Badger’ played well enough on a per-route basis to earn the starting job in 2023 while Schultz left for the Houston Texans.
His per-route metrics regressed slightly, but he played a much higher percentage of Dallas' offensive snaps. He’s generally played well in any situation outside of when he needs to line up at tight end. He stood out against man coverage, where he ranked in the 90th percentile in yards per route run at tight end while other young tight ends like Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid struggled in that area.
Ferguson had a slow start to the season with 15 or fewer yards in three of his first six games, but from Week 8 on after the Cowboys' bye week, he was a consistent producer. He was TE7 from that point on with 11.8 fantasy points per game. All of the stats shown in these tables and graphs are for the regular season only, but it’s worth noting he had by far the best game of his career in the wild card round, as he caught 10 passes for 93 yards and three touchdowns.
His PFF receiving grade over the last two seasons including the playoffs is sixth-highest, behind Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson and Sam LaPorta.
Ferguson earned more playing time as the 2023 season progressed. He averaged 66% of Dallas' offensive snaps over the first five weeks and 83% over the rest of the season, excluding the fourth quarter, which was frequently a blowout in one direction or the other. He similarly ran a pass route on 59% of Dallas' plays over the first five weeks and 83% of plays over the rest of the season.
When Ferguson is on the field, we could expect a higher target share. The Cowboys lost two of their five players in targets — Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup. They are turning toward Ezekiel Elliott and in-house replacements at wide receiver. This should mean slightly fewer targets at running back and wide receiver, which should mean more targets for Ferguson. The change at running back should lead the Cowboys to be even more pass-heavy, which should also benefit Ferguson. His biggest area of improvement would be the end-zone target rate, which ideally will improve after his wild card game.
Ferguson was TE9 last season and currently has an ADP of TE9, but everything is pointing up for him. His talent, situation, age, his play ignoring the first few weeks of last season when he first became a starter and including the playoffs, his competition for targets, and consistency with the coach and quarterback are all working for Ferguson. He is the clear-cut top option for anyone who missed out on a tight end in the first five rounds.
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