Fantasy Football: 5 bold predictions for 2024

Quarterbacks who excel at running the ball are extremely valuable in fantasy football. Justin Fields finished as QB6 in 2022, thanks to his 1,143 rushing yards. Jalen Hurts averaged over 23 fantasy points per start in 2020 despite completing 51.9% of his passes. That same season, Taysom Hill averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game during his four starts at quarterback.

Daniels has a chance to be a better runner and passer than those players in his first season.

Daniels put up a 91.5 PFF rushing grade throughout his college career, the highest mark among Power Five quarterbacks over the last decade. He also racked up the most missed tackles forced, while Jackson and Hurts ranked in the top five.

Not only was his running quality superior, but he also scrambled far more than any other quarterback. He scrambled 258 times during his college career, the most by any quarterback in the last decade. The next closest had 180 scrambles.

This could result in more rushing attempts and big runs from Daniels than other rushing quarterbacks. Every quarterback with 100 or more rushing attempts in the last decade has averaged at least 18 fantasy points per start — a number Daniels should easily achieve.

His ability as a passer shouldn’t be overlooked either, as he has the best mechanics of any passer in the class. He earned a respectable 84.0 career passing grade in college, and while we shouldn't expect him to reach Hurts' current level as a passer, he could well be better than Hurts was as a rookie.

The Commanders hired Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator this offseason. Kyler Murray finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in points per game in all four seasons when Kingsbury was his head coach, including his 2019 rookie season. Kingsbury’s offense should be a valuable asset for Daniels, or at the very least, not a hindrance.

The Commanders rookie is being selected as one of the worst options among fantasy starting quarterbacks, but he should be closer to the middle of the starters with the upside to finish among the top three quarterbacks.

Last season, only four quarterbacks — Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Flacco, and Lamar Jackson — averaged at least 21 fantasy points per game. The year before, it was Hurts, Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow.

If Daniels can reach this mark, he’s likely to finish as a top-four fantasy quarterback.

Zamir White is on the bench in over 50% of fantasy leagues consistently by mid-season

White is being drafted as a fantasy starter but is unlikely to have a role that sustains fantasy success.

It’s evident the team has no intentions of using him on third downs. Last season, White became the primary running back for the Raiders during the final four weeks after playing six snaps a game at most as a rookie in 2022 and 14 snaps a game at most over the first three quarters of 2023.

During those five games last season, he played one of a possible 34 snaps on third-and-5-plus, with Ameer Abdullah taking those reps.

In the preseason, the Raiders consistently took White off the field in those situations, with Alexander Mattison, Dylan Laube and Ameer Abdullah all taking those reps with the starters and primary backups.

He will similarly not be used much in two-minute drills. Over the last four weeks of last season, he played seven of a possible 27 two-minute-drill snaps, again losing snaps to Abdullah.

Dylan Laube took all those first-half snaps in the first two weeks of the preseason. Not being the primary running back in two-minute drills takes a running back's odds of being a fantasy starter from 72% to 51% in any given week.

White is also at risk of losing some of his early-down snaps. This concern has been amplified by the presence of offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, who has a history of utilizing running back committees. In Chicago, Getsy had David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert splitting work, and during his time with the Packers (though not as offensive coordinator), Aaron Jones often shared snaps with either Jamaal Williams or A.J. Dillon.

In the preseason, White started two games, but in both instances, Mattison took over for a drive on his own, with White returning the following drive. This is notable because most lead backs didn’t play in the second week of the preseason, and those who did, like Isiah Pacheco or James Cook, typically played 100% of the first snaps before being sidelined for the remainder of the game.

During the second quarter of the second preseason game, White rotated with Laube. Laube handled third downs and the two-minute drill, while White took most of the early downs. However, Laube also managed to sneak in on a first-and-10 play.

White even started the third quarter of the preseason game, which is highly unusual for a presumed starting running back. At that point, the Raiders had their backup quarterback in, along with their fourth- to sixth-string wide receivers, their third-string tight end and only one offensive lineman projected to start at the beginning of training camp. Notably, two typical starting offensive linemen didn’t play, and three veteran linemen had already been removed from the game.

It’s almost unheard of for a starting running back to play in the second half of any preseason game, except for rookies working their way up the depth chart. In the past three seasons, the only running back to play in the second half of the second preseason game and finish as a top-50 fantasy running back was Devonta Freeman in 2021. That was during a preseason game with the New Orleans Saints, and he only later signed with the Baltimore Ravens after their running backs suffered injuries.

While sometimes players see extended preseason action due to injuries at their position, the Raiders had six other running backs available in this game. This suggests that the Raiders might not be as confident in White as they are in the rest of their offensive starters. White, Mattison, Laube and Abdullah all sat out the final preseason game, and all four made the final roster. They are one of roughly 10 teams to keep four halfbacks on the roster.

Given these factors, White falls out of the conversation as a reliable fantasy starting running back. If you’re drafting a third running back, it would be wiser to target someone with a higher upside. For example, the Bengals' backfield situation is still uncertain, but whoever emerges as the starter there will likely score more fantasy points than White.

DeVonta Smith outscores A.J. Brown in PPR scoring

Smith was the 10th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft and has mostly lived up to expectations. He has finished as a top-20 wide receiver, posting good volume and efficiency numbers across the board. The fourth-year wideout has also stayed relatively healthy and has run a lot of routes, which certainly helps his fantasy value. Unfortunately, the one thing Smith has been best at is playing in the slot, and he doesn’t play there often.

This offseason, the Eagles signed free agent DeVante Parker, an outside receiver, creating an opportunity for Smith to play more slot snaps. After Parker's retirement, the Eagles traded for Jahan Dotson, another outside receiver, making it likely that Smith will play more in the slot this season.

The Eagles also brought in Kellen Moore to be their offensive coordinator. Moore generally runs a lot of plays, and his offense has largely depended on his personnel. One exciting prospect is the success of his past top wide receivers.

CeeDee Lamb primarily plays as the X receiver in two-receiver sets and shifts to the slot in three-receiver sets, a role ideal for PPR scoring. Lamb improved from WR19 in 2021 to WR5 in 2022. Similarly, Keenan Allen played the Z in base and moved to the slot in three-receiver sets for the Los Angeles Chargers last season, finishing as WR8. Allen has also taken on the X role in base formations in past seasons.

This versatile role, which Smith aims to assume, provides a clear path to a top-10 season.

Brandin Cooks will be in over 90% of fantasy starting lineups weekly by mid-season

Cooks finished as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver six times over a seven-season stretch from 2015 to 2021, often benefiting from strong quarterback play from Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Jared Goff and Deshaun Watson. Even in 2021, with Davis Mills, he managed a top-20 finish.

However, in 2022, injuries and playing on the league's second-lowest scoring offense hindered his performance, and he struggled to find the end zone.

 Cooks joined the Cowboys last season, but it took time for him to find his rhythm in the offense. After being inactive in Week 2 and recording 50 receiving yards or less in every game during the first half of the season, he broke out with a nine-catch, 173-yard performance. From then on, he consistently played at least 70% of Dallas' offensive snaps. From Week 10 onward, Cooks was the WR14, while his teammate CeeDee Lamb dominated as WR1 by a wide margin.

Cooks remains a well-rounded receiver, excelling in most areas except shorter routes, and the Cowboys will likely rely on him more this season than last. With Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup leaving in free agency and no notable pass-catchers brought in, Cooks' role could expand.

While it's unlikely Cooks will finish as a top-10 fantasy receiver due to Lamb's dominant target share and some reliance on touchdown luck, there's a strong case for him as a fantasy starter if he builds on his late-season momentum. He caught at least five passes in each of his last three games, including the playoffs, after achieving that just once in the first 16 weeks.

Cole Kmet finished outside the top 30 fantasy tight ends

This spring, the Bears hired Shane Waldron as their new offensive coordinator. Waldron began his NFL career with the New England Patriots, eventually becoming the Patriots' tight ends coach in 2009. That season, Benjamin Watson and Chris Baker were the primary tight ends, each logging 200-300 snaps in 11 personnel while splitting duties in 12-personnel formations. Despite this usage, Watson ranked 26th in fantasy points per game among tight ends that season.

The Patriots didn’t retain Waldron, and he didn’t get another opportunity as a position coach in the NFL until 2017 when he became the tight ends coach for the Los Angeles Rams. That year, the Rams selected tight end Gerald Everett with their first draft pick, 44th overall. Waldron held multiple roles within the Rams' offense from 2017 to 2020, during which time Tyler Higbee and Everett each ran between 200 and 340 routes per season. Despite their involvement, the only time either player finished in the top 20 in fantasy points per game was when Higbee did so in 2019. Notably, during the first 12 weeks of that season, Higbee averaged just 5.3 points per game, but he then exploded with a five-game stretch where he posted 107.2 fantasy points as the focal point of the Rams' offense.

In 2021, Waldron became the offensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks, and Gerald Everett signed with the team shortly after, during the first week of free agency. The Seahawks also had Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson on their roster, and they employed a similar two-man committee with Everett and Dissly. As a result, neither tight end finished in the top 20 in fantasy points per game. After the season, Seattle allowed Everett to leave in free agency and acquired Noah Fant as part of the Russell Wilson trade. In 2022, Parkinson became a larger part of the rotation, with all three tight ends running at least 200 routes. By 2023, the Seahawks increased their use of 11 personnel, rising from 53% to 63% after drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba. This shift reduced snaps for all the tight ends, and none finished among the top 30 in fantasy points per game.

Now, Waldron is the Bears' offensive coordinator. In the first week of free agency, the Bears added Gerald Everett, marking the sixth season that Waldron will coach Everett.

In the preseason, both tight ends played only with Caleb Williams in the game. Everett played 29 snaps compared to Kmet's 19. Everett ran a route on 55% of his snaps compared to Kmet's 47%. Everett has eight snaps on third downs compared to one by Kmet. Everett has 16 snaps in 11 personnel compared to four by Kmet, while in 21 personnel, Kmet has more snaps at four to two.

Kmet is only an 11th-round fantasy pick who is TE16, making him one of the top picks for those looking for a backup tight end. He shouldn’t be drafted in most leagues, as he could easily finish outside the top 30 based on Waldron’s past and his preseason usage.