• Christian Kirk doesn’t play in 12 personnel again: For the second straight preseason, there is concern about Kirk’s role in the offense.
• Shane Waldron brings his offense to the Chicago Bears: Waldron is using a very similar running back and tight end rotation to what he deployed with the Seattle Seahawks.
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Estimated Reading Time: 12 minutes
Nathan Jahnke’s fantasy football recap focuses on player usage and stats, breaking down all the vital information you need to achieve fantasy success in 2024. Here, we touch on only players who are relevant in fantasy football leagues.
These are my 10 biggest reactions to the games from the NFL preseason Week 1 slate. To get a more in-depth breakdown, check out my full recap.
Christian Kirk doesn’t play in 12 personnel again
For the second straight preseason, Kirk isn’t playing in 12 personnel.
One year ago, the Jaguars used their starters on the first three drives of the preseason, with Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones taking all three snaps out of 12 personnel while Kirk joined for only the six 11-personnel snaps. Jacksonville didn’t use its starters in the second game, and Jones and Kirk split snaps in the third game. In the first game of the regular season, Kirk played only five of 20 snaps out of 12 personnel. He played 60% of snaps in that game and caught one pass. In the following game, Jones suffered an injury, and we never saw Kirk and Jones play in a game where both were 100% again. Kirk’s playing time jumped to around 75%-85% of snaps without Jones.
This year, Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis have replaced Ridley and Jones. The two are already every-down receivers. On the first two plays of the Jaguars' first drive, they ran 12 personnel with Thomas and Davis. It’s certainly possible that Kirk will share time with someone on a larger sample, but Kirk should play less this year than last on a per-game basis, assuming the outside wide receivers stay healthy.
As mentioned in his player profile, Kirk is also in danger of losing touchdowns to the outside receivers. He is a player to avoid in drafts at his current ADP.
Let the Xavier Worthy hype continue
Worthy played four of a possible six snaps with the starters, featuring ahead of multiple Chiefs veterans.
Kansas City started the game with Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown and Worthy. Brown caught the first pass and suffered a shoulder injury. That could force Brown to miss the start of the regular season and give Worthy even more opportunities with the starters. It was a little surprising to see both deep threats in the starting lineup. Worthy played all of the 11-personnel snaps on the first drive while Skyy Moore took Brown’s place.
The Chiefs switched to backups for the second drive. Worthy played the first snap of that drive, which was in 12 personnel, before his day ended. The fact that he stopped playing basically at the same time as other starters shows that the Chiefs already view him as one of their more important players. Mecole Hardman and Justyn Ross didn’t start playing until the second drive, and Justin Watson and Kadarius Toney didn’t play in this game.
Rice was eased into action all of last season and Moore stayed a backup throughout his rookie campaign, so it’s a pleasant surprise that Worthy is already a clear third on the depth chart. Last season, Rice played well into the third quarter of the Chiefs' first preseason game, and Moore played the entire first half two years ago.
If the Brown injury ends up being serious, Worthy could be second on the depth chart. Other fantasy analysts have been higher on Worthy this season because of Andy Reid’s history with rookie receivers and the receiver rotation, but it looks like Worthy will be different. He will be moving up my fantasy rankings.
Bills' wide receiver situation is more complicated than anticipated
Marquez Valdes-Scantling was more involved in Week 1 than most would have thought.
Khalil Shakir was the Bills' top wide receiver to end last season, and the team drafted Keon Coleman and added Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins and Valdes-Stantling in free agency. Coleman, Hollins and Valdes-Scantling are all taller deep threats, while Shakir and Samuel are both more underneath wide receivers.
I thought the Bills would typically have one tall receiver in on every play and then both Shakir and Samuel in. on two-receiver sets. The Bills didn’t have Hollins in Week 1 due to injury, but in both two-receiver sets, either Shakir or Samuel was on the field. There was only one play with both on the field.
It will be difficult for Shakir or Samuel to be consistent this season if their playing time adds up to 100%. One of them may emerge, but they would need to play at least 75% of Buffalo's offensive snaps for fantasy managers to be comfortable starting them, and that means the other only plays 25% or less. It’s also too early to get excited about Coleman’s playing time because Hollins wasn’t playing. Presumably, Hollins would have taken time away from Coleman and Valdes-Scantling.
Bills wide receivers are still worth taking in late rounds because they have Josh Allen at quarterback, but a different wide receiver may put up numbers each week, and it won’t be predictable.
Jahan Dotson’s role change
Dotson was the Commanders' primary slot receiver with the starters in Week 1.
Dotson played 28% of his snaps from the slot as a rookie and 39% last season while Curtis Samuel was Washington's primary slot receiver. Samuel is now with the Buffalo Bills, leaving the slot role open in Washington.
The Commanders started with Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown out wide and Dotson in the slot to open the preseason. Olamide Zaccheaus later replaced Brown for a few plays on the drive, and despite Zaccheaus being a primary slot receiver in recent seasons, Dotson was still in the slot with Zaccheaus out wide.
This could be huge for Dotson's fantasy value. New offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury was the Arizona Cardinals‘ head coach from 2019-2022. During that time, Cardinals wide receivers in the slot caught 434 passes, which was the second most among teams in that time. Most teams in the top five had one clear slot receiver during that time, whereas the Cardinals had Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore.
The only concern is that multiple starters stopped playing after the first drive but Dotson continued — likely because this is a new role for him. This is also bad news for anyone who expected Luke McCaffrey to have a major role with the Commanders this season. McCaffrey didn’t see his first snap until the second half, placing him ninth on the depth chart currently.
The Raiders have a plan for Brock Bowers
Bowers lined up all over the place on his one drive with the Raiders' offense.
Bowers played 11 of a possible 14 snaps on his one drive. He lined up in a traditional tight end spot on six plays, as an outside wide receiver twice, in the slot once and in the backfield twice. Typically, teams don’t want to show a lot in the preseason, but they had no problem revealing that Bowers will be all over the field.
Nine of the rookie's 14 snaps were in 12 personnel. Meanwhile, Michael Mayer stayed in a more traditional tight end spot. Mayer did out-snap Bowers in two-tight end sets, but if they play this much 12 personnel in the regular season, that won’t be much of a problem. On a larger sample, we can expect Mayer to play more in run situations while Bowers plays more in passing scenarios.
We knew that Bowers wouldn’t be playing 90% of his snaps with Mayer as another option, but this was as promising a look we could get from Bowers, outside of him potentially scoring a touchdown.
As for Mayer, he should play a high percentage of snaps this season and could end up with more fantasy points than a few other teams' top tight ends, but it will be hard for him to have top-12 upside when it’s always Bowers getting put in the optimal receiving situations.
Gerald Everett is the Bears' new lead tight end
Everett appears to be ahead of Cole Kmet in the Bears' tight end rotation.
Shane Waldron, the Bears' new offensive coordinator, was the Los Angeles Rams‘ tight ends coach and passing game coordinator from 2017-2020 before joining the Seattle Seahawks to be their offensive coordinator in 2023. For all five of those seasons, Everett was one of his tight ends.
Everett started the game with Kmet but then played each of the next two snaps out of 11 personnel. The Bears continued to rotate the tight ends, at times with both on the field and at times with just one, with Everett taking more snaps and running more routes than Kmet. This included Everett playing all of the passing plays on third down. The only third down Kmet was in for was a third-and-1 where the Bears used 13 personnel and ran the ball. The tight end rotation will likely be a little more complicated once Marcedes Lewis is involved, as he will take some of the 12-personnel snaps.
This situation is similar to that of the Seahawks over the past three seasons, where no one was draftable. Last season, Noah Fant was TE32 and Colby Parkinson was TE38. Neither tight end missed a game, and there were no weeks where either was a top-10 fantasy tight end. You could argue that Chicago's tight ends are more talented, but the Bears also have more depth at wide receiver. Kmet may overtake Everett again at some point this season, but then it’s potentially Kmet at TE32 and Everett at TE38. Either way, neither will be a fantasy starter at any level of consistency.
Even if you are just looking for a backup tight end in a 12-team league, you should look elsewhere.
Concerning rotation of Steelers tight ends
Arthur Smith is the Steelers' new offensive coordinator, and he brought a rotation at tight end with him.
The Steelers' top three tight ends are Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington and MyCole Pruitt. Pruitt was part of Smith’s tight end rotation with both the Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons. While Freiermuth played the most snaps and ran the most routes with the starters, he was never on the field in two-tight end sets. All three were on the field for three plays out of 13 personnel, while Washington and Pruitt took three snaps out of 12 personnel. This left Freiermuth with all but two snaps from 11 or 21 personnel; Washington played in the other two.
The Steelers used 12 personnel on only 18% of the snaps in this game, but Smith’s Falcons deployed 12 personnel more than any team last year (41.5%). Since Smith's time with the Tennessee Titans, his offenses have consistently ranked in the top 12 in 12-personnel usage. It is nearly impossible for someone to be a consistent fantasy starter without being one of the two primary tight ends in 12 personnel.
Freiermuth will likely play some snaps in that group at some point, but this situation seems very similar to when Jonnu Smith was with the Titans. Freiermuth is a promising-enough tight end who won’t play enough snaps to get enough volume.
A first look at the Commanders' two-man backfield
We can expect the team's top two running backs to rotate this season.
Brian Robinson is the incumbent starter, and Washington added Austin Ekeler this offseason to replace Antonio Gibson this offseason. Robinson started the game, and Ekeler took his place on the second play of the game.
Washington's starters played only one drive, so both players are being considered among those starters. The two continued a frequent rotation. Robinson played more snaps on early downs, and Ekeler played more late-down snaps. This included both players taking snaps when the team was within five yards of the end zone. Ultimately, rookie Jayden Daniels scored a three-yard rushing touchdown to end the drive.
If this is how the split continues in the regular season, Robinson would be a borderline fantasy starter with most of the rushing attempts. Ekeler will struggle to be a consistent fantasy running back unless he ends up with a high target share or Robinson suffers an injury. Both will suffer if Daniels keeps sniping short rushing touchdowns from them.
Bears' bizarre running back utilization
D’Andre Swift played only two offensive snaps in the team's Week 1 preseason game.
Swift took the first play of the game for a three-yard gain before Khalil Herbert replaced him on the second play. The fact that Swift was taken out immediately suggests this could be a heavy running back rotation.
Two plays later, Travis Homer was in on third down. Roschon Johnson missed this game likely due to injury, but he likely would have been the third-down player. Homer has a history with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, so it’s also possible Homer will have a role on offense this season. Presumably, if Swift was going to play on third downs this season, he would have been in for this play.
Swift was in on the following play and made a 42-yard reception before his day was done. Herbert played the rest of the early-down snaps, while Homer played the rest of the third downs. Waldron used a clear third-down back throughout his time in Seattle.
It appears Swift and Herbert will be competing for snaps on early downs, and Johnson could mix in there, as well, while Johnson and Homer will take the third-down snaps. Swift made one big play, but the fact that Waldron has brought his philosophy to the Bears means Swift won’t see third downs, won’t see a lot of two-minute drill snaps and might lose a decent number of early-down snaps to Herbert. The early-down split is hard to predict because Swift played just two snaps.
A first look at the Titans' two-man backfield
The Titans retained Tyjae Spears and signed Tony Pollard, and both played significantly with the starters in Week 1 of the preseason.
Pollard started the game, but Spears came in on the very next play. The two continued to rotate every two to three plays. The Titans had several snaps within five yards of the end zone, and both players played in that situation. They similarly both played on third downs.
It’s not very common to see this kind of rotation in the regular season, but it may continue. For now, both players can play in any situation, and whichever running back is playing better will likely be the one who sees the most snaps. Both players are worth drafting because of their talent, but this is currently one of the least predictable backfields.
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