In just over two months, the fantasy football draft season will be in full swing. A lot will change between now and then, and it’s important to monitor those changes. To keep our fingers on the pulse of fantasy drafts, I’ll be monitoring consensus ADP throughout the summer in order to track the trends of the drafting public. This ADP is averaged from all of the major commissioner sites in order to provide the full scope of drafting trends throughout the industry.
In this first batch, we’re going to take a look at the biggest movers and shakers over the last month of ADP. The time gap will shrink in subsequent iterations of this column with updates ultimately coming on a weekly basis in the heart of fantasy draft season.
Risers
Marshawn Lynch (+13 spots, ADP 3.05) – The veteran is on the rise and into the third round as the 13th running back off the board. Lynch has a lot of appeal running behind the Raiders offensive line, but uncertainties still somewhat cloud his fantasy future. This is about the top end of his preferred draft position. It will be tough to get value out of him any higher.
Larry Fitzgerald (+13 spots, ADP 6.01) – Though he lacks the upside he once possessed, Fitzgerald remains the top target in Arizona. At this ADP he’s now a borderline WR2, which feels about right considering the volume he should see.
LeGarrette Blount (+26 spots, ADP 8.04) – This one’s fairly obvious. Blount’s value was in question until he signed with the Eagles. He’s now locked into the early-down role in Philly. Expect this ADP to continue to rise over the next month.
Danny Woodhead (+9 spots, ADP 8.09) – The drafting public continues to toss support Woodhead’s way with teammate Kenneth Dixon dropping a corresponding nine spots. Woodhead should see plenty of work with Dixon suspended, but questions linger about how he’ll hold up in his age-32 season after missing significant time in two of the last three years.
Pierre Garcon (+14 spots, ADP 8.12) – Somebody has to catch the ball in San Francisco. While the common pro-Garcon narrative points to his production when he last played under Kyle Shanahan, keep in mind that this 49ers team is extremely rough around the edges. Garcon is close to maxed out at this ADP as the 37th wide receiver off the board.
Mike Wallace (+21 spots, ADP 10.12) – Remember that time when Wallace quietly topped 1,000 yards and finished as a top-25 fantasy receiver? Most people don’t, but that was his 2016 season. Of course, Wallace’s value takes a hit with Jeremy Maclin in town, but he’s still worthy of WR4 consideration. Incidentally, expect Maclin’s ADP to shoot up over the next month.
Julius Thomas (+12 spots, ADP 13.08) – Buzz from the Miami beat on Thomas’ role in the offense is surely at play here. Thomas is fine as the No. 15 tight end off the board, but anything higher is a bit overly optimistic.
Austin Hooper (+38 spots, ADP 14.05) – Here’s another tight end on the move, but perhaps one with more fantasy upside. Hooper has drawn praise for his offseason progress and should be considered a late-round target for those who prefer waiting at tight end.
Quincy Enunwa (+38 spots, ADP 15.06) – With Eric Decker gone, Enunwa is now the Jets’ No. 1 receiver. While that distinction comes with a boost in fantasy value, it isn’t much given the state of the Jets offense.
Jonathan Williams (+26 spots, ADP 16.08) – LeSean McCoy’s understudy finally cracked the top 16 rounds. Keep in mind that Bills backup running backs have been quite valuable over the last two years. Williams should continue to rise throughout the summer.
Fallers
Sammy Watkins (-9 spots, ADP 4.04) – Concerns about Watkins ailing foot are almost certainly at play here. Watkins can be a WR1 even on limited volume if he stays healthy. It looks like that “if” is going to be built into his draft price this year.
Carlos Hyde (-9 spots, ADP 4.06) – Despite rumblings that Joe Williams might challenge for the starting job, Hyde appears to be in the driver’s seat. Of course, that could certainly change by late-August, but for now, drafter sentiment has Hyde going at a nice value as the 16th running back off the board.
Jamison Crowder (-11 spots, ADP 7.04) – As buzz continues to build for Terrelle Pryor, the drafting public has somewhat backed off of Crowder. He certainly could lead the Redskins in catches, but Crowder had one of the lowest average target depths last season. That means limited upside from a yardage standpoint.
Corey Davis (-14 spots, ADP 8.05) – This one is somewhat interesting because the price is fair at this ADP, which suggests drafters were a bit high on the rookie receiver following April’s draft. Davis was a full-participant in mini-camp practices and has a good shot of being a WR3 in his rookie year.
Latavius Murray (-23 spots, ADP 9.07) – Sinking like a stone. Murray will likely have a role in the Vikings offense, but he’s at best a second-fiddle to rookie Dalvin Cook. There’s almost no upside to drafting Murray even at this discounted price point.
Robert Kelley (-14 spots, ADP 9.10) – The Samaje Perine effect. Kelley is still the lead back on paper, but there’s a good chance that changes when camp opens up. Kelley was lackluster down the stretch last year and doesn’t offer much fantasy appeal with Perine breathing down his neck.
Mike Williams (-22 spots, ADP 10.09) – With a total of one day of practice with the Chargers so far, Williams is falling further and further behind. Hopefully he’ll be ready to roll for training camp, but he’s certainly behind the 8-ball. At this point, Williams is a very risky pick.
Jeremy Hill (-28 spots, ADP 12.09) – Both Hill and Giovani Bernard (-24 spots) have fallen off a draft cliff. Continued praised for Joe Mixon won’t help the cause for either player, not to mention the fact that Bernard will likely miss the beginning of the season.
Rex Burkhead (-48 spots, ADP 17.01) – There was some excitement on Burkhead’s prospects in New England, but that has since faded in the wake of Mike Gillislee’s signing. He’s officially out of the top 16 rounds and is likely there to stay.
J.J. Nelson (-47 spots, ADP 18.09) – With John Brown gaining momentum (up 17 spots to pick 10.08), Nelson has dipped out of the first 16 rounds. His value may fluctuate throughout the rest of the draft season, but this seems a justified move. Fitzgerald and Brown are the preferred fantasy options out of the Arizona receiver corps.
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