College Football Preview 2024: UCF Knights win projections, strengths and weaknesses, quarterback spotlight and more

Head coach: Gus Malzahn (Fourth season)
2023 record: 6-7 (Lost Gasparilla Bowl)
PFF power ranking: 44th
Chance to win the Big 12: 6%
Strength of schedule: 91st
Projected win total: 7.1
FanDuel win total: 7.5
2024 recruiting rank (On3): No. 32 nationally, No. 2 in the Big 12

While UCF suffered its first losing season in seven years, the Knights still made the smoothest transition to the Big 12 in 2023 among the new members.

UCF was the lone Group of Five transfer to make a bowl game. If the Knights are to get back to their winning ways in 2024, it’ll likely be on the back of what should be one of the best rushing attacks in the nation. UCF has a three-headed monster in its backfield in RJ Harvey, Toledo transfer Peny Boone and Arkansas transfer KJ Jefferson along with great depth at running back. The Knights have some question marks that they’ll need to answer defensively, specifically at the first and second levels, to achieve another winning season.

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Biggest Strength: Elite run game

UCF has the second-best running back unit in college football, with RJ Harvey and Toledo transfer Peny Boone leading the way. They were two of the 10 leading rushers in the country last season at running back. No other school has two in the top 30. New quarterback KJ Jefferson is also a serious threat on the ground, with his 2,280 rushing yards since 2021 ranking second among Power Five signal-callers to only Jayden Daniels.

Biggest Weakness: Front seven

UCF’s front seven mostly struggled last year, finishing 82nd in the FBS in PFF grade as a unit. The Knights also lost four of their nine defensive tackles, edge defenders and linebackers who played at least 300 snaps for them last year. None of the FBS front-seven players they added in the transfer portal earned 60.0-plus PFF grades in 2023, either.

2023 Team Overview

Offense
EPA per play	Yards per play	Successful play rate	Explosive run play rate	Explosive pass play rate
0.157	7.0	39.6%	20.3%	18.9%
13th	8th	15th	11th	17th
Defense
EPA allowed per play	Yards allowed per play	Successful play rate allowed	Explosive run rate allowed	Explosive pass rate allowed
0.022	5.8	37.8%	18.6%	12.8%
87th	T-75th	119th	125th	40th

Three Notable Transfer Portal Additions

QB KJ Jefferson (Arkansas): 77.6 PFF grade
RB Peny Boone (Toledo): 88.2 PFF grade
S Deshawn Pace (Cincinnati): 70.5 PFF grade

Three Notable Transfer Portal Losses

CB Corey Thornton (Louisville): 76.2 PFF grade
S Nikai Martinez (Michigan State): 62.3 PFF grade
EDGE Josh Celiscar (Texas A&M): 65.6 PFF grade

Quarterback Spotlight: KJ Jefferson

2023 Grade: 77.6
Key Stat: 91.4 PFF overall grade from 2021-2022 (11th in FBS)