College Football Playoff Semifinal Preview: Matchups to watch and predictions for both Penn State-Notre Dame and Texas-Ohio State

• Texas–Ohio State: The Longhorns and Buckeyes meet in the Cotton Bowl, a game that features the best secondary in America (Texas) against the best receiving corps (Ohio State).

• Penn State–Notre Dame: The Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish square off in the Orange Bowl where both teams will try to win off of defense and their rushing attacks.

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Estimated reading time: 16 minutes

The inaugural 12-team playoff has been whittled down to its previous size of four. Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Ohio State all advanced to the semifinals after winning a first-round game at home before toppling one of the top-four seeds in the quarterfinals.

We’ve decided to make our previews for the playoff more expansive than ever before. Now, we’ll be diving into two matchups to watch for each offense in these games, one for the passing game and one for the running game. And of course, we’ll be predicting who will advance to the national championship as well. 

No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Orange Bowl on Thursday at 7:30 PM EST on ESPN)

Penn State’s pass game against Notre Dame’s pass defense (Max): Tyler Warren against the Fighting Irish’s safeties

Notre Dame’s secondary should have a big advantage over Penn State’s wide receivers in this game. The Fighting Irish have the third-best coverage grade in the Power Four when a wide receiver is targeted (90.3) while the Nittany Lions only target their wideouts 35.2% of the time (the lowest rate in the Power Four). Notre Dame runs man coverage at one of the highest rates in the country (56.7%) and Penn State’s wide receivers have notoriously struggled to gain separation this season. 

The Nittany Lions’ receiving corps has been buoyed by its superstar tight end, Tyler Warren. The John Mackey Award winner leads all Power Four tight ends in practically every receiving category, including but not limited to grade (93.3), yards (1,158), touchdowns (eight) and yards after the catch (655). He averages 77.2 receiving yards per game while no other Penn State wideout even cracks 50 yards. 

Suffice to say, the Fighting Irish are going to be focused on slowing down No. 44. Fortunately for them, they have excellent safeties who might be up to the task. Notre Dame’s safeties as a group are third in the FBS in coverage grade (91.4). The Fighting Irish have allowed just a 46.1 passer rating when a tight end was targeted this season, second among FBS defenses. While Xavier Watts is their star safety, Adon Shuler has been the one most often tasked with covering tight ends one-on-one, allowing Watts to roam as a centerfielder. Shuler has done an outstanding job in that role, posting an 89.2 coverage grade against tight ends while only allowing 50% of targets to be caught. 

If Warren’s unable to continue his dominance against Notre Dame, it could be a long night for Penn State’s passing attack. 

Penn State’s run game against Notre Dame’s run defense (Dalton): Can Penn State continue its dominance when in 12 personnel?

Through its Week 10 loss to Ohio State, Penn State deployed 12 personnel at a reasonably high rate, ranking 25th in the nation in their usage of it. After that defeat, which was the Nittany Lions' fourth straight game with fewer than 180 rushing yards, they decided to ramp up the usage of it to get more bodies involved in the run game, which has paid big dividends.

Penn State in 12 personnel since Week 11:

Penn State has gone from a roughly 35% usage rate of 12 personnel to an incredibly high 58% since the Ohio State game. When the Nittany Lions have two tight ends on the field, they’ve used far more outside zone schemes down the stretch than the usual duo schemes they used early in the season.

Running the football is as much a numbers game as it is about creating movement up front. Having multiple effective tight ends on the field such as Tyler Warren and Khalil Dinkins creates a multitude of issues for a defensive front, especially when having to account for Warren’s elite receiving ability.

Strangely, Notre Dame has faced the fifth-lowest percentage of 12 personnel formations in the FBS. The Fighting Irish have done a nice job in run defense when they have seen it, but they have yet to see anyone deploy it nearly as often or effectively as the Nittany Lions have this season. Penn State ranks sixth in the nation in offensive grade on run plays when in 12 personnel, the highest of any team the Fighting Irish have played this season.

Notre Dame’s pass game against Penn State’s pass defense (Dalton): Riley Leonard vs. Penn State’s single-high coverages

As is the case for Notre Dame’s defense, Penn State is known to deploy a heavy dosage of single-high coverages. The Nittany Lions have increased that usage in the playoff against SMU and Boise State, running single-high defenses at a roughly 70% clip in those two games. They’ve also increased their Cover 1 rate to 52.5%, as they have felt confident in their secondary to cover those teams’ weapons.

They should feel similarly confident against Notre Dame, whose wide receivers rank 83rd in receiving grade. Due in part to that lack of production, Riley Leonard has struggled when facing single-high defenses this season. Of the 125 passers who have thrown at least 100 passes with the middle of the field closed, Leonard is tied for 107th with a 61.6 passing grade.

Leonard's 6.3 yards per attempt and 7.1-yard average depth of target also rank near the bottom of that group. His receivers have had trouble separating downfield and the team has had trouble consistently attacking down the middle of the field.

Penn State uses these coverages even more on early downs, but like SMU and Boise State, Notre Dame throws at a well below-average rate on first and second downs. Leonard was able to find effectiveness as a runner against Georgia to move the chains, but at some point in this game, he may need to make some early down throws into single-high coverages to force the Nittany Lions to respect his arm.

Notre Dame’s run game against Penn State’s run defense (Max): Can the Nittany Lions win at the line of scrimmage to make up for any tackling woes?

As Dalton illustrated last week, Penn State’s had some major issues bringing down ballcarriers this season. The Nittany Lions have missed a tackle on 17% of plays this season, the fourth-worst rate in the Power Four. Normally, that would’ve spelled big trouble in the quarterfinal against Ashton Jeanty since he set the single-season PFF College record for forced missed tackles (151). 

Instead, Penn State held the Heisman Trophy runner-up to a season-low 104 rushing yards despite Jeanty still forcing 16 missed tackles, his third-most in the season. The reason for that is the Nittany Lions dominated at the line of scrimmage, allowing just 0.6 yards before contact per attempt while Boise State finished with a season-worst 45.4 run-blocking grade. 

This isn’t a new trend either. The Nittany Lions are 15th among FBS defenses with just 1.1 yards before contact per attempt allowed while opponents have just a 40.9 run-blocking grade against them. 

Notre Dame’s rushing attack has been great both before and after contact which is why the Fighting Irish third in the FBS in terms of EPA per run (0.225). Notre Dame leads the Power Four with 4.2 yards after contact per attempt while placing seventh in run-blocking grade (75.9). In its four games against an opponent with a top-25 run-defense grade though, the Fighting Irish posted just a 54.8 run-blocking grade. 

Notre Dame has a three-headed monster in its backfield between Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price and quarterback Riley Leonard. In order to avoid getting gashed by them, Penn State needs to win the battle in the trenches and swarm to the football, just as it did in its last game against Boise State.

Predictions

Max: Penn State 21, Notre Dame 20

This game should be a rock fight as the defenses dominate while both offenses look to establish the run. When each team needs their quarterback to make a big-time throw, I trust Drew Allar to do so more than Riley Leonard. The Nittany Lions take down the Fighting Irish and advance to their first national championship game in program history.

Dalton: Notre Dame 23, Penn State 20

Notre Dame managed its way through the Georgia game with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price combining for just 56 yards. Penn State is arguably the least worrisome of the run defenses the Fighting Irish have faced in this playoff, especially with their tackling issues. They also continue to prove they are the best man coverage team in the nation. I’ll take them in a close game as they earn their first national title berth since 2012.

No. 5 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (Cotton Bowl on Friday at 7:30 PM EST on ESPN)

Texas’ pass game against Ohio State’s pass defense (Dalton): Quinn Ewers vs. Jim Knowles’ new favorite coverage

Among the philosophical changes that Ohio State has made during this playoff run is a change in how it mix its coverages on defense. During his three seasons as the Buckeyes’ defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles has primarily used single-high defenses in order to stifle often run-heavy opponents in the Big Ten.

During the team’s two playoff games, Knowles has deployed his unit in Cover 2 most often at a 25.5% usage rate. That number alone isn’t some groundbreaking discovery considering the Buckeyes' opponents, Tennessee and Oregon, but it’s the way that they have structured it that has been making an impact.

Normally, the Buckeyes would run a Tampa-2 scheme in a traditional look where Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom each occupy a deep half of the field and a linebacker carries any seam route between them. Lately, they’ve been deploying slot cornerback Jordan Hancock as a deep-half safety while Downs has been playing the Tampa role lurking over the middle of the field.

Prior to the playoff, Hancock had played just 89 snaps all season lined up at free safety. Over the past two games, he’s nearly matched that with 79. He’s held his own on the back end preventing deep shots while Downs has been able to protect the seams and play at a short enough depth to help in run support.

Quinn Ewers and the Texas passing game have struggled at times against two-high-safety defenses this season. Against Cover 2 specifically, Ewers owns just a 55.8 passing grade with five turnover-worthy plays across 56 dropbacks against it this season.

As a team, Texas ranks just 51st in offensive grade against two-high defenses compared to fifth when it sees just one deep safety.

Ohio State has been able to stifle the RPOs and easy throws that were featured in the offenses of their first two playoff opponents. Expect the Buckeyes to attempt more of the same and force Quinn Ewers into challenging the nation’s highest-graded safety unit.

Texas’ run game against Ohio State’s run defense (Max): The Longhorns’ outside-zone heavy scheme against the Buckeye defense that’s elite at keeping contain

If you’re going to stall Texas’ ground game and put the ball into Quinn Ewers’ hands, you better be ready to win on the outside. That’s because the Longhorns have called outside zone on over one-third of their rushing attempts this season (34%), the 17th-highest rate in America. Outside zone is designed to get the defense moving laterally and challenge the edge of the defense. It’s then the running back’s job to find where the defense is weakest, often reading the edge defender to see if he should continue outside or bounce it back inside. 

The concept worked beautifully in Texas’ first-round game against Clemson, which was a major reason the Longhorns won by multiple scores. It didn’t work as well against Arizona State in the quarterfinal, a game in which Texas squeaked by in double overtime. 

Texas on outside zone in its two playoff games:

A major reason for the split could be right tackle Cameron Williams’ absence against the Sun Devils. The projected first-round pick has an 84.5 run-blocking grade on outside zone this season, 14th among FBS tackles. His replacement, Trevor Goosby, is 251st in that same group with just a 52.1 mark. While Williams missed the Peach Bowl with a right knee sprain, he at least was a limited participant in practice leading up to the game which points to a potential return against Ohio State. 

The Longhorns will likely need their star right tackle against the Buckeyes’ elite defense, especially considering how well Ohio State’s contained outside zone this season. In fact, the Buckeyes lead the Power Four with a 90.7 run-defense grade against that concept while only allowing 0.2 yards before contact per attempt on such plays. Linebacker Cody Simon has been terrific against outside zone, placing third among FBS linebackers with an 89.9 run-defense grade. As for Ohio State’s edge defenders, JT Tuimoloau is first among FBS edges with an 86.4 run-defense grade against that concept while Jack Sawyer isn’t too far behind at sixth (82.4). 

Texas’ two first-round offensive tackles (Kelvin Banks Jr. and Williams) against Ohio State’s fantastic edge defenders in Tuimoloau and Sawyer will likely determine how much success the Longhorns find on the ground.

Ohio State’s pass game against Texas’ pass defense (Max): The best receiver corps in the country versus the best secondary in the country

Grab your popcorn. This is arguably the most star-studded matchup of the entire season. 

Ohio State averaged 0.498 EPA per pass in their wins over Tennessee and Oregon in the playoff while averaging 0.273 the rest of the season. Something seems to have clicked for the Buckeyes, and that something is the 19-year-old phenom they have in Jeremiah Smith. While the top overall recruit in the 2024 class had a terrific true freshman season outside of the playoff, he’s become practically unrecoverable recently. 

Jeremiah Smith across two playoff games:

Keep in mind that the Volunteers and Ducks are each among the nation’s 30 best teams in terms of coverage grade. Combine that with the fact that the Robin to Smith’s Batman, Emeka Ebuka, is a projected first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft and you get a receiving corps that practically every secondary in the country can’t handle.

Except maybe Texas. The Longhorns lead the nation with a 92.5 coverage grade this season with three players from its secondary earning 85-plus grades: cornerback Jahdae Barron and safeties Andrew Mukuba/Michael Taaffe. Texas leads the FBS with a 59.8 passer rating allowed while placing third in explosive pass rate allowed (9.3%). 

The Longhorns only run man coverage 16.7% of the time, spending the vast majority of the time in zone coverage. Smith’s 763 receiving yards against zone are second to only Heisman Trophy-winner Travis Hunter among Power Four pass catchers though, while Ohio State owns the third-best receiving grade in America against zone coverage.

Not only does this matchup feature superstars on both sides, it could very well decide who advances to the national championship game.

Ohio State’s run game against Texas’ run defense (Dalton): Texas’ front against Chip Kelly’s new favorite run scheme

Coming off of an embarrassing loss to Michigan in which they ran for just 73 designed yards, the Buckeyes knew they needed to find a way to run the football effectively despite an offensive line that’s been battered with injuries. They had three weeks to prepare for the Tennessee game, and in that time, they found a way to completely overhaul their schemes to find some level of efficiency on the ground.

Chip Kelly has always been known as a master of zone-run schemes. From Oregon to the Philadelphia Eagles to UCLA and finally Ohio State, Kelly’s brand of simplified zone running and fast pace have always been a staple. That production slowed down late in the season, so he’s now gone to a completely different approach in the playoff.

During the regular season, Ohio State ran counter schemes just 10% of the time, a bit below the national average. During its two playoff games, that number has skyrocketed to 49%. For reference, USC leads the nation this season with 38% of its run plays being counter schemes. The payoff for the Buckeyes is evident in the production.

Ohio State counter schemes in playoff:

Not only have the Buckeyes run a new scheme in the playoff, but they’ve also done it with great efficiency. If they continue to create explosive runs at a 20% rate, they become nearly unstoppable. They’ve also been adding play-action concepts working off of counter action, including on two of Jeremiah Smith’s four touchdowns over the past two weeks, that make them even more dangerous.

Texas has seen just 55 counter attempts this season. The Longhorns have posted an 83.8 run-defense grade on those snaps, but that is a very small sample. The toughest part of preparation this week won’t be what little they’ve already seen from Ohio State running these schemes. It will be trying to guess what the next layers that Chip Kelly will be adding as his offense continues to morph behind a makeshift offensive line.

Predictions

Max: Ohio State 30, Texas 21

Something snapped in the Buckeyes after their loss to Michigan. In its two dominant playoff wins over Tennessee and Oregon, Ohio State has finally looked like the best team in the country like their uber-talented roster indicated it would be. The Longhorns are likely going to need nearly flawless football from Quinn Ewers to win this game, a dangerous proposition considering his rollercoaster playstyle. The Buckeyes win the Cotton Bowl and advance to their first national title game since 2020 when they lost to Alabama.

Dalton: Ohio State 31, Texas 24

Ohio State is riding the perfect level of preparation and execution so far in this playoff. Texas may be the last team in the country with a chance at containing Jeremiah Smith. If the Longhorns are going to win, they’ll likely need the best game of Quinn Ewers’ career in order to do it. He’s shown flashes recently, but they need the full 60 minutes. The Buckeyes are running too hot right now, though, and they secure a spot in the national championship game.