College Football Bowl Games: Betting market update

Welcome to PFF's betting market update for Week 2 of bowl season.

In this article, we’ll break down the key factors influencing line movements in betting markets, helping you determine whether changes are an overreaction or an underreaction to these developments. If you’re unfamiliar with our approach, click here for a deeper explanation. You can check out our analysis for Round 1 of the CFP by clicking here.

Bowl game markets are unique, primarily shaped by transfer portal entries, player opt-outs, and coaching changes. These factors often lead to dramatic swings in spreads and totals, sometimes even on game day, as unexpected opt-outs emerge. One critical edge during bowl season lies in assessing team motivation—a skill that blends intuition and analysis.

An evolving trend to monitor is the participation of players who have entered the transfer portal but choose to play in bowl games. This practice, fueled by NIL opportunities and revenue-sharing developments, could become more prevalent in the years ahead.

RELIAQUEST BOWL: ALABAMA vs MICHIGAN

Spread: The initial move dropped the spread to 10 shortly after opening, but it has since climbed to 13.5 with news that most of Alabama’s potential opt-outs, including QB Jalen Milroe, are expected to play. The line has yet to reach 14, and it’s unlikely we’ll see that number appear.

Total: The total oscillated between 43 and 44 for weeks before Circa dropped it to 42.5 over the weekend. Most books are still holding at 43.5, though others may follow suit soon.

Buy/Sell: Even after significant movement, I’m comfortable backing Alabama at -13.5.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

TONY THE TIGER SUN BOWL: LOUISVILLE vs WASHINGTON

Spread: Significant movement toward Washington has shifted this line below a field goal, primarily due to reports that Louisville QB Tyler Shough will sit out alongside several other key contributors. Washington appears to be nearing full participation. The line sits at a consensus of 2, though some books still show 2.5.

Total: The total has steadily dropped by 4 points since opening, with 49.5 remaining widely available.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

CHEEZ-IT CITRUS BOWL: SOUTH CAROLINA vs ILLINOIS

Spread: The line has fluctuated slightly, dipping below 10 at times before climbing to 11 this past weekend. It has since settled back at 10, though 10.5s are still available. Both teams are expected to be near full strength for this Citrus Bowl matchup.

Total: After remaining steady at 48 for two weeks, the total has seen recent movement, bouncing between 49 and 50 over the past week.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

KINDER'S TEXAS BOWL: BAYLOR vs LSU

Spread: LSU’s offensive line exodus has shifted Baylor to the favorite, pushing the line past a field goal to 3.5. However, some books still offer 3s. Additionally, LSU has seen a handful of defensive starters commit to other schools through the portal.

Total: After an early 2-point drop, the total has stabilized, with 59.5s consistently available across the board in recent weeks.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

TAXSLAYER GATOR BOWL: DUKE vs OLE MISS

Spread: The line movement stems primarily from Duke QB Maalik Murphy's transfer. Both teams are otherwise expected to be near full strength. The spread has settled at 17.5 across the board, with no movement beyond that at any book.

Total: The total has seen a two-point drop, now sitting at 51. Most books offer 51.5, with a few listing 50.5.

Buy/Sell: I’m buying the over at 51. Despite Duke’s QB change, Lane Kiffin’s vocal frustration about his team missing the playoff suggests he’ll be eager to make a statement by lighting up the scoreboard.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

SERVPRO FIRST RESPONDER BOWL: NORTH TEXAS vs TEXAS STATE

Spread: The portal has hit North Texas hard, pushing the line close to 14 in favor of Texas State. While a few market leaders have moved to 14, most books remain at 13.5, just shy of the key number.

Total: With a depleted roster and a true freshman quarterback leading North Texas, the total has dropped over 8 points. These drastic movements highlight the volatility of bowl season. Some books still have this listed at 61 or 61.5.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

DUKE‘S MAYO BOWL: MINNESOTA vs VIRGINIA TECH

Spread: Heavy action on Minnesota has driven the line past a touchdown to 7.5. While there was some buyback on Virginia Tech at 7.5 late last week, the line is now creeping up to 8 at some books. Uncertainty around the Hokies' starting quarterback has added to the movement.

Total: Minimal changes here, with a net half-point drop to 42.5. The total briefly dipped to 41.5 but quickly rebounded.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

BAHAMAS BOWL: BUFFALO vs. LIBERTY

Spread: The transfer of QB Kaidon Salter to Colorado has shifted the line in Buffalo's favor, making them close to a field-goal favorite after opening as a slight underdog. The market is split between -2 and -2.5.

Total: After opening at 52, the total has dipped slightly and now sits between 50.5 and 51. Further downward movement is possible as kickoff approaches.

Buy/Sell: I’m buying Buffalo at -2.5, as the line seems likely to close at 3 or higher.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)