CFL Week 20 Preview: Brady Oliveira makes his case to be Most Outstanding Player

2Y9J8PE Hamilton, Canada. 04th Oct, 2024. Winnipeg Blue Bombers running back Brady Oliveira (20) runs toward the goal line during second half CFL football game action against the Hamilton Tiger Cats in Hamilton, Ont. on Friday, October 4, 2024. The fire inside Brady Oliveira is burning a bit hotter this week, which could spell trouble for the Toronto Argonauts. Credit: The Canadian Press/Alamy Live News

• No playoffs, but still a huge season for QB Bo Levi Mitchell in Hamilton: Mitchell ranks second in the CFL this season with 29 big-time throws and has an impressive 74.7% adjusted completion rate.

• WPG RB Brady Oliveira looking to make final case for Most Outstanding Player: He even has an outside shot at breaking the 2,000-yard rushing plus receiving mark for the second straight season, needing 217 yards to get there.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!

Estimated reading time: 9 minutes


HAMILTON TIGER-CATS VS. OTTAWA REDBLACKS

Only two games this week have any kind of playoff implications, and this game is not one of them. However, the Ottawa Redblacks need a win. After starting the season an impressive 8-3-1, the Redblacks have lost five straight games. With last week’s loss to Toronto, they ensured that they’ll be on the road for the playoffs (they are 2-7 away from home this season). There’s no way Ottawa would feel good if it enters the playoffs in the midst of a six-game skid. To snap that, the Redblacks will have to beat a Hamilton team that’s won five out of their last six games. The Tiger-Cats cannot make the playoffs, but they’d love to end their season on a high note as they build towards next season. A win against the Redblacks would certainly do that. Hamilton has a lot of players playing well this season, and guys like DI Casey Sayles and HB Richard Leonard will look to end their seasons among the highest-graded at their positions. 

MATCHUP TO WATCH: WR TIM WHITE, HAMILTON VS. HB DAMON WEBB, OTTAWA

White has been one of the CFL's best receivers over the past few seasons, and he’s in the midst of another good one. He ranks third in the league with 34 explosive receptions, and his 21 missed tackles forced after the catch are tied for second-most. White would be grading even higher if he didn’t also lead the league with nine dropped passes. He’ll have to really work to find success this week against Ottawa’s Webb. The defensive halfback has been one of the best all-around defenders in the CFL this season. He’s allowing a passer rating of just 77.5 when targeted, thanks to four interceptions and eight pass breakups. Webb presents a big final challenge to the season for White, and it’ll be a fascinating matchup to watch.

PLAYER TO WATCH: QB BO LEVI MITCHELL, HAMILTON

The future Canadian Football Hall of Fame quarterback is in the midst of one of his all-time best seasons, and this game gives him a chance to set some career highs. Mitchell needs 351 yards and four touchdowns to match his career-best marks. Hard, yes, but he’s just a week removed from a 449-yard-five-touchdown performance. Mitchell ranks second in the CFL this season with 29 big-time throws and has an 74.7% impressive adjusted completion rate. Since Week 11, Mitchell has only made five turnover-worthy plays (while making 17 big-time throws), and Hamilton has won five out of those eight games. Look for another strong performance to close out the season for Mitchell, who wants to prove that he should remain Hamilton’s starting quarterback for the 2025 season.


TORONTO ARGONAUTS VS. EDMONTON ELKS

The second game of the week also has no playoff implications, but it should still be exciting. The Argonauts have clinched a home playoff game in the East Division semifinals, where they’ll take on the Ottawa Redblacks. The good news for the Argonauts is that QB Chad Kelly seems to be finding his groove after a slow start to his season. Last season’s Most Outstanding Player has been the highest-graded player of the past two weeks, posting five big-time throws to zero turnover-worthy plays and a 94.0 overall grade. Edmonton is playing for pride, as they could not overcome a terrible 0-7 start to the season. The Elks have gotten fantastic play out of QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson all year (90.4 season grade), but they’ll turn once again to the young Tre Ford at quarterback. The Canadian has looked good at times, including his most recent start two weeks ago in which he posted an 84.0 passing grade. Ford should be a starter in the CFL next season, and this will be a final chance to prove that to Edmonton or any other team around the league. 

MATCHUP TO WATCH: WR EUGENE LEWIS, EDMONTON VS. CB BENJIE FRANKLIN, TORONTO

By Eugene Lewis' standards, 2024 has been a down year. A crazy thing to say about a receiver who is just 18 yards away from a 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown season. That just shows how high the standard for Lewis has been. Despite the “down year,” Lewis still ranks second in the league with 19 contested catches. It’ll be up to Franklin to find a way to slow him down. The young boundary corner is in the midst of a very solid season. While the 825 yards he’s allowed are the second-most in the league, he’s also picked off two passes and broken up 12 more. Those 12 pass breakups are the second most in the CFL. Franklin’s 79.6 coverage grade ranks seventh among outside corners this season. Slowing down Lewis will certainly not be easy for him. 

PLAYER TO WATCH: RB KA’DEEM CAREY, TORONTO

While Winnipeg’s Brady Oliveira has been getting all the attention at the runningback position, Carey has quietly been putting together an outstanding season. He leads the CFL with 67 first downs gained despite having almost 40 fewer carries than second- and third-place on the list. He also leads the league with 78 missed tackles forced on 232 total touches. Carey’s 92.9 rushing grade is tied for the highest in the CFL among RBs with over 90 carries. He’s the Argonauts Most Outstanding Player nominee for a reason, and this game is one final chance before the playoffs to make his case to be the nominee out of the East.


WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS VS. MONTREAL ALOUETTES

Now we’re getting to the good stuff. The Blue Bombers currently sit in first place in the West Division, a remarkable feat considering their 2-6 start to the season. For them, it’s simple. A win and they lock up first place and the all-important first-round bye. Lose, and they may be back playing football next week with no time off to recover. The Bombers have gotten to where they are on their defense's back, led by sure-to-be All Stars in CB Tyrell Ford and EDGE Willie Jefferson. They’ll look to slow down a Montreal team that has slowed down in recent weeks. After starting the season 10-1 and looking like they were far and away the CFL's best team, the Alouettes have looked beatable recently and have gone 2-3-1 in their last six. It’s certainly possible that they’ve taken their foot off the gas a bit, as they essentially had first place in the East locked up halfway through the season, but they need to ramp it back up this week so that they go into the playoffs riding high. 

MATCHUP TO WATCH: RB BRADY OLIVEIRA, WINNIPEG VS. LB TYRICE BEVERETTE, MONTREAL

This matchup is by far the biggest matchup of the week. In fact, this could be a preview of the Most Outstanding Player award matchup. Oliveira is in the midst of another phenomenal season. He leads the league in rushing yards, as well as rushing grade (92.9). He even has an outside shot at breaking the 2,000-yard rushing plus receiving mark for the second straight season, needing 217 yards to get there. Looking to stop that from happening is Beverette, the driving force behind this Montreal defense. Beverette is one of the CFL's most complete linebackers. He can defend the run, drop into coverage, rush the passer, you name it. He’s a tackling machine, ranking third overall with 129 total tackles this season while missing just 11 tackles. That missed tackle rate of 7.9% is the top mark among linebackers. If Beverette can stop Oliveira in their last game, it could be just the push he needs to move to the top of the Most Outstanding Player race.

PLAYER TO WATCH: WR AUSTIN MACK, MONTREAL

It’s been a tough season for Montreal receivers. They lost Tyson Philpot for the year as he was in the midst of a league-leading season. Tyler Snead and Kaion Julien-Grant have missed large chunks of the season. Mack came back to the Alouettes midway through the season and was injured after just one game. However, he returned two weeks ago for the Alouettes and caught four passes for 92 yards and three first downs. Mack was one of the best receivers in the CFL in 2023, averaging 2.03 yards per route run. Mack getting back to that level gives this Montreal offense another huge threat going into the playoffs. Another big game from him to close out the regular season could be huge for both his and QB Cody Fajardo’s confidence heading into their first-round bye.


CALGARY STAMPEDERS VS. SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS

If Winnipeg beats Montreal in the earlier game on Saturday, then this game means nothing for playoff placement. But if the Bombers lose, it opens the door for Saskatchewan to leapfrog them in the West Division and lock up first place and the first-round bye. QB Trevor Harris will be locked in for Saskatchewan, as he has been all season (91.5 passing grade, 78.4% adjusted completion rate). Their defense will be firing. A good game from them should be more than enough to beat a Calgary team that’s going to finish with the worst record in the CFL. Calgary hasn’t won a game since the start of August, going 0-8-1 over their past nine games. Calgary has not had much going for them this season, but playing spoiler and keeping Saskatchewan from getting the No. 1 seed in the West could be a small consolation prize for a team desperately looking for something to build on next year. 

MATCHUP TO WATCH: RT JOSHUA COKER, CALGARY VS. ED MALIK CARNEY, SASKATCHEWAN

One bright spot for the Stampeders this season has been the play of their right tackle Joshua Coker. The big man currently leads the entire CFL with an 81.9 pass-blocking grade. He’s allowed just two sacks and 11 total pressures all season. He’ll have one final test this week, and it’ll be a big one. Carney hasn’t played since Week 14, but he should be back for this one. Before his injury, he was a force when it came to rushing the passer. On the season, Carney has a 17.8% pass-rush win rate, a 15.7% pressure rate, and a 9.2 pass-rushing productivity score. All of those marks still lead the CFL. When Carney is healthy, he can be a game wrecker. If Coker can’t slow him down, it could be a very long day for the Stampeders offense. 

PLAYER TO WATCH: ROLAN MILLIGAN JR., SASKATCHEWAN

Saskatchewan has had a very good year with a lot of strong players. That’s what makes Milligan being the team nominee for Most Outstanding Player, Most Outstanding Defensive Player and Most Outstanding Special Teams Player that much more impressive. He’s not the only good player on a bad team, he’s just having a phenomenal season. Milligan leads the league with eight interceptions and also has 11 forced incompletions on top of that (third-most). His 90.7 coverage grade ranks second in the league. He also has one of the highest special teams grades in the league (91.2) and his 18 solo special teams tackles are the third-most. What Milligan has done this season is special, and it’ll be very exciting to watch what he does in his regular-season finale. 

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