• No QB playing as well as Toronto’s Chad Kelly the past month: He leads the CFL with an 83.8% adjusted completion rate and has made eight big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy play.
• Throwing deep on Montreal is not an easy task: As a unit, the Alouettes have allowed a 15-plus-yard completion on just 14.9% of their plays, the second-lowest mark in the league.
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Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
TORONTO ARGONAUTS VS. MONTREAL ALOUETTES
The Argonauts started slow a week ago in their East Division Semi-Finals matchup, falling behind the Ottawa Redblacks 13-3 early in the second quarter. However, the Argos woke up after that, outscoring Ottawa 55-25 the rest of the game. With their dominant win, they set up a rematch of last season’s East Division Finals. Last year’s game saw the red-hot Montreal Alouettes travel to Toronto to take on the East Division Champion Argonauts. The script is flipped this year, as the No. 1 seed Alouettes host a Toronto team that’s won four of its last five games (and the only loss being a walk-off rouge in a meaningless Week 21 game). Montreal has been the best team in the league all season, but it has looked beatable over the final month and a bit of the season. Can the Alouettes hold off Toronto and punch their ticket to a second-straight Grey Cup game? Or will the Argonauts get revenge for last year’s upset loss and find themselves playing for a second Grey Cup in three years?
TORONTO PLAYER TO WATCH: QB CHAD KELLY
After missing the first nine games of the season due to a suspension, Kelly got off to a slow start in his return. He’s been anything but toward the end of the season. Over his past three games, Kelly leads the entire league with a 94.7 overall grade. He leads the CFL with an 83.8% adjusted completion rate and has made eight big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy play. Kelly has been looking like he did to win the CFL Most Outstanding Player in 2023. The last time these two teams met, Kelly had a pretty pedestrian game with just a 65.4 passing grade. While the Argos still won that game, they’ll surely need a big game out of Kelly in this one to come out on top.
MONTREAL PLAYER TO WATCH: LB TYRICE BEVERETTE
The Alouettes defense has plenty of players worth mentioning all over it, but none are as important to the team as Beverette has been this season. The linebacker is the defense's do-it-all weapon, excelling at all three phases of the game and never needing to leave the field. Beverette led all linebackers with 40 pass-rush wins, ranked fourth in the league with 66 total run tackles and allowed just one touchdown in coverage while picking off two passes and breaking up five more. Beverette also led the entire CFL with a 91.8 special teams grade. If Beverette was asked to play offense, he’d almost certainly succeed. There’s seemingly nothing he can’t do, which includes leading this Montreal team to a win and a berth in the Grey Cup.
TORONTO WILL WIN IF: IT CAN PRESSURE THE QUARTERBACK
Montreal’s biggest offensive strength is its pass blocking. The unit leads the league with a 73.6 pass-blocking grade and allows just eight pressures per game. This is key for QB Cody Fajardo, who has a 2.0% turnover-worthy play rate when kept clean, but it jumps to 4.5% when pressured. The Argonauts lead the CFL with a cumulative 86.5 pass-rushing grade. Their 322 total pressures rank second in the CFL, as does their 24.9 pass-rushing productivity score. EDGE Robbie Smith ranks second in the league with 57 total pressures, while DI Jake Ceresna, DI Ralph Holley and EDGE Folarin Orimolade all rank inside the top seven in pass-rushing grade. If those guys can find success up front, it could be enough to turn the tides of this game.
MONTREAL WILL WIN IF: IT CAN CONTAIN TORONTO’S DEEP PASSING ATTACK
It’s no secret that Toronto likes to push the ball downfield. Chad Kelly’s 12.2-yard average depth of target ranks second in the league. Over 26.2% of his passes travel 15-plus yards in the air, the second-highest mark in the league. Since Week 19, Kelly is 13-for-20 for 473 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions and one dropped pass on throws beyond 15 yards. They are one of the CFL's best deep-ball passing teams. The Alouettes need to take that away if they want to win. They have the defense to do it. As a unit, the Alouettes have allowed a 15-plus-yard completion on just 14.9% of their plays, the second-lowest mark in the league. Their star CB Kabion Ento has allowed one on just 1.5% of his snaps. Montreal leads the CFL with just 7.9 yards per coverage snap allowed. If it can stop the Toronto deep ball, it should feel good about its chances to win.
SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS VS. WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
After missing the playoffs for the past two seasons, the Saskatchewan Roughriders managed to turn things around under rookie head coach Corey Mace and earn themselves a home playoff game last week. They handled the B.C. Lions 28-19 and get a chance at the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The same Blue Bombers that have knocked the Roughriders out of the last three playoffs that they’ve made. This year’s Winnipeg team started off rough, going 2-6 and sitting at the bottom of the West Division early in the year. The Blue Bombers responded by winning nine of their remaining ten games and finishing on top of the West. Both of these teams can largely thank their defense for being in this game. The Blue Bombers are allowing just 20.3 points per game, the CFL's No. 1 scoring defense. The Roughriders have forced opposing offenses into 49 turnovers, the most in the league. The winner of this game will likely come down to whichever offense is able to make the least mistakes against these elite defenses.
SASKATCHEWAN PLAYER TO WATCH: RB A.J. OUELLETTE
The Roughriders brought in RB A.J. Ouellette this offseason to turn their run game around. Injuries limited his effectiveness, as he rushed for just 626 yards and broke only 21 tackles on 143 carries this season. However, the Riders didn’t sign Ouellette for the regular season only, they signed him to come up big in tough games. That’s exactly what he did last week, rushing for 70 yards and breaking five tackles on 14 carries — 84.3% of those yards came after first contact, and he had the highest grade among RBs for the week. Ouellette playing well allows Saskatchewan to operate efficiently with the short passing game, something that QB Trevor Harris excels at. Another good game from Ouellette could propel Saskatchewan to their first Grey Cup since 2013.
WINNIPEG PLAYER TO WATCH: ED WILLIE JEFFERSON
The ageless Willie Jefferson just earned his sixth selection to the All-CFL Team and is still one of the CFL's most dominant pass-rushers. His 54 total pressures ranked third in the league this year, and his 13.2% pass-rush win rate was a top-10 mark. Where Jefferson can make a huge difference is his signature batted passes. Since PFF began charting the CFL in 2022, Jefferson has batted down a ridiculous 35 passes. The second-most in that span is 12. Jefferson is a game breaker who is capable of single-handedly ending opposing offensive drives with his pass rushing. Some pressures here, a batted pass or two there, and Winnipeg could be coming away with a win.
SASKATCHEWAN WILL WIN IF: THEY GET THE QUICK PASSING GAME GOING
Nobody is better at dissecting a defense quickly than QB Trevor Harris is for Saskatchewan. He was one of three QBs to throw more than 50% of his passes beyond the first down markers and also had the quickest average time to throw in the league at 2.27 seconds. That’s big against this Blue Bombers defense. On passes thrown in under 2.2 seconds, Winnipeg allows a 74.9% completion rate and 7.09 yards per coverage snaps. On passes over 2.2 seconds, those marks drop to 54.9% and 6.94. The Blue Bombers are the only team in the league whose defense allows a higher percentage of first downs on those quick passes (37.0%) than on the longer-developing throws (36.1%). It’s not that they are bad at quick passes, it’s that they are so good at covering the longer plays that a quick game is the best chance of beating them.
WINNIPEG WILL WIN IF: ZACH COLLAROS DOESN’T FORCE THROWS
This hasn’t been an outstanding season for Collaros by any means. The quarterback’s 77.3 passing grade this season ranked ninth out of 11 qualified quarterbacks. His 23 big-time throws were a significant dropoff from his previous two seasons (36 and 38), while his 23 turnover-worthy plays were the second-most in the league. Collaros has always been a high-risk-high-reward quarterback. He will sometimes force passes to his receivers trying to make a play downfield. That may not work against this Saskatchewan defense. The Roughriders lead the CFL with 49 takeaways, ten more than second place. Guys like HB Rolan Milligan and CB Marcus Sayles are more than capable of making a big play and coming away with the ball on those kinds of throws. Collaros will need to take what the defense gives him and move the ball downfield efficiently if he wants to beat this Saskatchewan defense.
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