• Keep an eye on WR Justin Hardy in Ottawa: Hardy’s 80.2 receiving grade, 41 explosive receptions and 2.14 yards per route run average all ranked second in the CFL
• CB Garry Peters capable of shutting down the entire side of the field: Peters played in every game this season and allowed just 21 receptions for 240 yards in coverage.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
OTTAWA REDBLACKS VS. TORONTO ARGONAUTS
Our first playoff matchup takes place in Toronto, where the Argonauts are hosting the Ottawa Redblacks. The Argos finished the season 10-8, but more importantly for this game, they were 7-2 at home. That bodes well against an Ottawa team that was just 2-7 on the road. These two teams first met in Week 14, where Ottawa came away with a 41-27 victory. The two teams have gone in opposite directions since then. Toronto went 4-2 in their following games, with wins over both No. 1 teams in the East and West Divisions in Montreal and Winnipeg, as well as a win against Ottawa themselves. Their two losses were a two-point loss to Saskatchewan and a one-point overtime loss in a meaningless Week 21 game against Edmonton. Ottawa lost five straight games after that Week 14 victory before finally getting back in the win column last week against Hamilton. That win could be huge for the team’s confidence heading into this one.
OTTAWA PLAYER TO WATCH: WR JUSTIN HARDY
While Ottawa dealt with quarterback injuries throughout the year, at times having to play backup QBs Dustin Crum or Jeremiah Masoli instead of starter Dru Brown, they had one consistent force. That was third-year receiver Hardy, who smashed the career marks he set a year ago. Hardy led the league with 97 catches and finished second with 1,343 yards. Hardy’s 80.2 receiving grade, 41 explosive receptions and 2.14 yards per route run average all ranked second in the CFL, trailing only BC’s Justin McInnis. Hardy did all that on top of missing two games late in the season. Hardy has been on a tear in his last four games, catching 29 passes for 433 yards, two touchdowns and a 2.62 yards per route run average. If Hardy can keep that going, he could help carry this Ottawa offense to a win.
TORONTO PLAYER TO WATCH: LB WYNTON MCMANIS
The Argonauts defense has been rounding into form throughout the season, and McManis is the anchor of that. While still a good run defender and a solid pass-rusher when asked, McManis really shines in coverage. Since PFF started charting the CFL in 2022, McManis has had three of the top four-season coverage grades, all above 85.5. Having a middle linebacker who can cover in the CFL is so important in the wide-open game, and nobody can do it like McManis can. Despite missing more than a third of the season, he still ranks ninth in the CFL with 28 solo stops. McManis is the quarterback of this Argos defense and his skills allow him to completely change a game for them.
OTTAWA WILL WIN IF: THEY CAN PROTECT QB DRU BROWN
No CFL quarterback is more dependent on a clean pocket than Ottawa’s Brown. When he’s not under pressure, Brown has thrown 17 TDs and five INTs. He has a 90.6 passing grade with 16 big-time throws to 10 turnover-worthy plays. When pressured, he’s thrown just 1 TD, 5 INTs, has made just six big-time throws and 16 turnover-worthy plays. His passing grade drops all the way to 38.1. Simply put, when he’s kept clean, Brown is one of the best passers in the CFL. When he’s not, he’s the worst. Ottawa’s offensive line finished the season with an 86.4 pass-blocking efficiency score, the third-lowest in the CFL. If the Redblacks can play better than their usual, they’ll allow Brown to have a great game and potentially lead them to the upset victory.
TORONTO WILL WIN IF: CHAD KELLY CAN PROTECT THE FOOTBALL
In last year’s playoff loss, Kelly threw four interceptions and made six turnover-worthy plays, finishing with a 27.9 passing grade. Obviously, Toronto cannot overcome that kind of performance no matter how good the Argonauts are. Kelly has been much better as of late at keeping the ball secure. Since Week 15, Kelly has just two turnover-worthy plays in five games. He’s had eight big-time throws in that same span and a passing grade of 86.1, third-best in the league. Toronto’s defense is good enough to help the Argonauts win games, but not if they keep getting put in tough situations. If Kelly can continue to play like he has been to close the season, Toronto could come away with a home win.
BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS VS. SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS
It’s been an up-and-down season for both of these teams. They both started the season hot and then struggled at times down the stretch of the season, but they both did enough to make the playoffs. The Roughriders almost had a chance to not play at all this week, but a last-second Winnipeg win in Week 21 ended any chance of that. The 9-8-1 team will settle for at least one home game, especially against a Lions team that they walloped 39-8 in their most recent meeting three weeks ago. The difference this week? The Lions will be going with Vernon Adams Jr. at QB instead of Nathan Rourke. Rourke struggled in his sudden return to the CFL, and Adams certainly gives them a better chance to win right now. After their 27-3 smacking of Montreal in Week 20, the Lions should have lots of confidence heading to Saskatchewan with a chance at the West Division Finals on the line.
BRITISH COLUMBIA PLAYER TO WATCH: CB GARRY PETERS
Peters didn’t get a lot of shine this year compared to other defensive players across the league like Saskatchewan’s Rolan Milligan Jr. and Winnipeg’s Tyrell Ford, but he should have. Peters played in every game this season and allowed just 21 receptions for 240 yards in coverage. Those numbers are absolutely insane for a corner. He only had one interception but forced 10 incompletions. It’s hard to record stats like that when you’re only targeted 38 times all season, the lowest among any defender that’s not a free safety. Quarterbacks simply didn’t throw at Peters this year. Peters finished with an 86.4 coverage grade that ranked fifth in the league, which is unbelievably impressive in a production-based grading system with just one interception. Peters is capable of taking away an entire side of the field, and that could be enough to decide the outcome of this game.
SASKATCHEWAN PLAYER TO WATCH: HB ROLAN MILLIGAN
Of course, it’s going to be Milligan as the player to watch, especially when he’s going to see a lot of BC WR Keon Hatcher on the boundary side. Milligan had an incredible regular season and was a rightful candidate for Most Outstanding Player of the league. He led the CFL with eight interceptions and had an additional 11 pass breakups. His 90.4 coverage grade ranked second in the CFL. He also contributed on special teams, posting one of the highest special teams grades in the league this year as well as recording 20 special teams tackles. Milligan has not only not allowed a touchdown in coverage since Week 8, but he’s given up just 17 catches for 97 yards total in the nine games he’s played since. Milligan is a complete game-changer on defense, and a well-time interception in this game could completely turn it on its head.
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL WIN IF: VERNON ADAMS JR CAN OPEN UP THE PASSING ATTACK
It’s no secret that the Lions’ season would likely have gone differently if Vernon Adams had never gotten injured. Prior to Week 9, Adams was on pace for a historical season. He made 28 big-time throws in just seven games to just 11 turnover-worthy plays. The injury, and then Nathan Rourke returning to the Lions spoiled that pace. But Rourke struggled as a passer, and the Lions offense that averaged 29.4 points per game with Adams starting dropped to just 23.9 per game without him. They turned back to him in Week 20, and he responded with a massive game in which he passed for over 350 yards and made three big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy play. Nobody pushes the ball downfield like Adams does, with a 14.2-yard average depth of target that is more than two yards more than second-highest. A high-flying passing game favors the Lions, so if Adams can do that then they could come away with a win.
SASKATCHEWAN WILL WIN IF: THEY WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE
The Roughriders’ offense has turned the ball over just 23 times this season. Their defense has made 49 turnovers. That +26 turnover margin is the best in the league by a massive amount (second-best is plus-10). The Riders’ defense is opportunistic. There’s Milligan obviously, but CB Marcus Sayles had four picks. Linebackers Adam Auclair and C.J. Avery had three each. The Riders also led the league as a unit with 15 fumbles forced. When they get the ball, QB Trevor Harris is the best in the league at diagnosing the defense prior to the snap and throwing it quickly to the right receiver. Harris had the lowest time-to-throw average in the league at 2.26 seconds but also threw it past the first down sticks on 49.4% of his throws, the third-highest rate in the league. If Saskatchewan’s defense can give Harris a few more chances with the ball, especially with a short field, they’ll come away with a win.
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