Fantasy Football Utilization Report: Week 16 waiver, trade and drop candidates

Editor's note: This year, PFF collaborated with Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life to bring readers the NFL Fantasy Football Utilization Report.

Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. It is a great way to know who is overperforming (sell high) and underperforming (buy low) based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume.

• Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
• Quarterbacks: How involved is each quarterback in the running game and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
• Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short-yardage and passing downs
• Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route thresholds
• Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense

Week 15 Takeaways

Waiver Wire

To make the waiver wire section of this column, a player must be rostered less than 50% of the time in typical leagues like Yahoo! or ESPN. If players are trending upward in utilization or performance and are over that threshold, they will be found under the upgrade or buy-low section.

RB ZACK MOSS

Jonathan Taylor’s season is over. He landed on IR after suffering a high-ankle sprain on the Colts’ first drive in Week 15. After his departure, Moss decidedly controlled the backfield with 24 rushing attempts.

Moss taking the SDD snaps wasn’t a surprise as the bigger-bodied option, but he also led the way in LDD situations with over 60% of the work. Deon Jackson had been a passing-down option at times this season, which makes that development notable. Moss ceded snaps to Jackson in the two-minute offense (33% vs. 67%), but his utilization mirrored what we have seen from Taylor this season.

Since Jeff Saturday took over as head coach, the Colts have shown a willingness to run the ball more than the NFL average in all game scripts.

• Trailing by four-plus points: 40% (+6)
• Within three points: 45% (+4)
• Leading by four-plus points: 50% (+1)

The Colts get three great rushing matchups to finish the season against the Chargers, Giants, and Texans. We only have one data point, but time is short, and at RB, volume is king, making Moss worth a big final bet off of the waiver wire.

FAB: 75%+

WR Jahan Dotson

Dotson has shown signs of life over the last two games with WR18 and WR9 finishes, thanks to a 20% target share and 30% air yard share. Washington is scheming optimal looks for their 2022 first-round selection, with 38% and 60% of his targets coming off of play-action passes.

Dotson has as many end-zone targets as Terry McLaurin (22%) for the season, despite missing multiple games. The rookie isn’t dominating looks (13% TPRR), making his long-term profile questionable. However, his recent trends are positive, and the high-leverage nature of his targets provides upside.

The Commanders face the 49ers this weekend, which will be a sub-optimal spot for the rookie. However, he gets the Browns in Week 17.

Dotson moves into upside WR4 territory and is available in over 80% of leagues.

FAB: 50%+

WR Russell Gage

Gage demonstrated WR3 traits during his time in Atlanta despite a terrible offense. Injuries have derailed his inaugural season in Tampa Bay, but Week 15 was a reminder that he can play. The veteran WR registered a team-leading 29% target share and finished as the No. 5 WR in Week 15 with Julio Jones out.

He was Tom Brady’s favorite option on third and fourth downs (36%) and in the endzone (100%) in a game where the Buccaneers were forced into comeback mode against the Bengals. He now sits at a respectable 19% TPRR, given his season-long battle with a hamstring injury.

The Bucs remain a pass-first offense, and Gage attacks the underneath and intermediate areas of the field where Brady has found success. The veteran WR belongs in the high-end WR4 discussion in Week 16 against the Cardinals if Jones misses another game.

FAB: 25%

QB Gardner Minshew

Jalen Hurts suffered a sprain to his throwing shoulder in the victory over the Bears in Week 15. While he hasn’t been ruled out for Week 16, early reports lean towards Minshew as the starter.

Minshew averaged 214 yards and 2 TDs in two starts last season for the Eagles, including a game against their Week 16 opponent, Dallas. With QB waiver wire options picked over more than ever due to injuries and busts, Minshew is a solid option for Hurts managers.

The Eagles will likely try to lean into their rushing attack against a Cowboys’ front that is susceptible to the run. However, Minshew could have a big efficiency day, given the Eagles’ elite weapons. The veteran QB has eclipsed 275-plus yards in 32% of his NFL starts with at least 25 dropbacks.

Hurts fantasy managers should proactively add Minshew if they don’t have a backup and/or the waiver wire is thin.

FAB: Do what you need to do if you don’t have other options.

Upgrades

QB Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence has three top-five fantasy finishes in his last four outings. Over that span, he averages 297 yards and 2.8 TDs per game through the air. 

The former No. 1 overall draft pick ranks first in PFF pass grade (90.2) since Week 10 and is second in big-time-throw rate (7.5%) behind only Josh Allen. Lawrence and the Jaguars are peaking at the best time of the season for fantasy managers.

Week 16 provides a challenging matchup against the Jets before Jacksonville finishes out the season against the Texans’ and Titans' porous secondaries.

Lawrence is a mid-range QB1 moving forward

RB Jerick McKinnon

McKinnon has back-to-back No. 1 RB performances, and his role in the passing game is as strong as ever, with 55% and 68% route participation marks.

The journeyman RB has hit a 20%-plus target share in three games this season and two of them have come in the last two contests. McKinnon registered 16 targets, 14 receptions, 183 yards, and 3 TDs through the air in Weeks 14 and 15.

Isiah Pacheco remains the primary ball carrier, but the veteran RB is locked into the Chiefs’ passing plans. An afterthought only two weeks ago, McKinnon carved out a Tony Pollard-type role in short order. Like Pollard, he might not hit every week – his other two outings with a 50% route participation netted 9.2 and 10.4 fantasy points – but the ceiling is undeniable.

McKinnon is a must-start upside RB2 the rest of the way

RB J.K. Dobbins

Dobbins has 120 and 125 rushing yards in his first two games back from IR. However, the Ravens’ backfield remains a three-way committee, with Gus Edwards spelling Dobbins on 27% of rushing attempts and Justice Hill handling most of the passing-down duties. 

Fortunately, the Ravens remain a run-first operation, which boosts the touch floor in a committee. Baltimore leans into the run game in trailing (+2), close (+3) and leading (+5) game scripts more than the NFL average and ranks No. 7 in non-overtime rushing attempts.

After toting the ball 15 and 13 times the last two weeks, Baltimore gets the Falcons in Week 16 in a matchup where the game script could provide Dobbins a chance to register season-highs in rushing attempts.

Dobbins is a borderline RB2 moving forward

WR Zay Jones

Jones has three top-seven finishes in his last four games, averaging 27% of the team’s targets. His 22% season-long target share trails only Christian Kirk (23%), and the duo has turned into more of a 1A and 1B situation with the eruption of Trevor Lawrence.

Jones is an interesting case study because he checked zero breakout boxes before his move to the Raiders last season, where he registered a WR4-worthy PFF receiving grade. 

A change of scenery doesn’t always work – see Marquez Valdes-Scantling – but Jones deserves a lot of credit for parlaying his strong finish in 2021 into his role with the Jaguars.

Jones is a high-end WR3 in a red-hot passing attack

WR Drake London

London has taken over the Falcons’ passing attack with 50% and 44% target shares, which has led to WR20 and WR26 finishes.

Since Kyle Pitts’ injury in Week 11, London has a 30% TPRR and a 2.00 YPRR.

The top WR from the 2022 NFL draft has a 27% TPRR on the season – ranking first among rookies with at least 250 routes – but no one knows because the Falcons are the fourth-most run-heavy team.

Atlanta’s run-at-all-costs offense and shaky QB play are barriers to a high-end eruption for London down the stretch. However, we have seen this style of offense support solid WR play when there is only one talented mouth to feed, and that is precisely the scenario in this instance.

London is a low-end WR3 with upside in season-long and a buy-low in dynasty formats

TE George Kittle

Historically, Kittle has seen an uptick in targets in games without Deebo Samuel, and that held true in Week 15. Kittle delivered the No. 1 TE performance with four receptions for 93 yards and two TDs on five targets. 

The veteran TE still has weekly bust potential in a run-first offense where Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk will get looks, but this is a reminder that his upside is superior to almost every other TE.

Kittle is a high-end boom-bust TE1 as long as Samuel is out

TE Darren Waller

Waller returned from IR to post a top-eight TE finish. However, he was hardly targeted (9%), and his routes were limited (66%). 

The veteran tight end has yet to prove he can earn the love and affection of Derek Carr with Davante Adams on the field. His 16% TPRR is well below his marks of 27% and 23% over the last two seasons.

Waller’s reputation earns him a low-end TE1 grade, but he isn’t a must-start until he shows more

Downgrades

WR Amari Cooper

Cooper has finishes of WR53, WR61, and WR43 since Deshaun Watson took over at QB. Over the last two games, he only has 11 total targets.

Watson was atrocious in the first game, with a 57% adjusted completion percentage, but he has improved over the last two games with marks of 81% and 76%. Unfortunately, the yards per attempt haven’t followed (6.0, 6.6 and 5.8).

Cooper remains the No. 1 option in Cleveland, but it is uncertain if Watson can shake off the rust in time to make him the high-end player we saw with Jacoby Brissett under center.

The veteran WR drops to low-end WR2 status

JUMP TO A TEAM:

ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

Arizona Cardinals

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Good

Run-volume environment: Below Average

Quarterbacks

• Injury Update: Kyler Murray (ACL) is out for the season and Colt McCoy was knocked out of the Week 15 contest with a concussion.

Rest of the season:

• Colt McCoy: low-end QB2
• Trace McSorley: free agent

Running backs

Rest of season:

• James Conner: low-end RB1
• Keaontay Ingram: stash RB5

Receivers and tight ends

• Downgrade: This passing game can’t catch a break. Kyler Murray is done for the season, and Colt McCoy was knocked out of the Week 15 contest with a concussion. Trace McSorley was only able to complete 52% of his passes and could start in Week 16.

Rest of season:

• DeAndre Hopkins: low-end WR2
• Marquise Brown: mid-range WR3
• Robbie Anderson: free agent
• Trey McBride: low-end TE2

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Atlanta Falcons

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Poor

Run-volume environment: Good

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Desmond Ridder: low-end QB2

Running backs

• Injury Update: Caleb Huntley left the game with an injury.
• Monitoring: Tyler Allgeier led the backfield with 50% of the rushing attempts and 67% of the SDD snaps. He also led the way in LDD opportunities (71%) and could be the new No. 1 option in Atlanta. However, it is only one data point, and the Falcons have been a bit sporadic with player utilization throughout the season. If the trend holds up, Allgeier would have RB2 upside in a run-first attack.

Rest of season:

• Cordarrelle Patterson: mid-range RB3
• Tyler Allgeier: mid-range RB3

Receivers and tight ends

• Upgrade: Drake London has taken over the Falcons’ passing attack over the past two games with 50% and 44% target shares, for a total of 23 looks. His 27% TPRR ranks first among rookies with at least 250 routes, but no one knows how to treat London because the Falcons are the fourth-most run-heavy team. London is a low-end WR3 moving forward.

Rest of season:

• Drake London: low-end WR3
• Olamide Zaccheaus: deep-league WR6

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Baltimore Ravens

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Below average

Run-volume environment: Above average

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Lamar Jackson: mid-range QB1
• Tyler Huntley: mid-range QB2 until Jackson returns

Running backs

• Monitoring: J.K. Dobbins has 120 and 125 rushing yards in his first two games back from injured reserve. However, the Ravens' backfield remains a three-way committee with Gus Edwards spelling Dobbins on 27% of rushing attempts and Justice Hill handling most of the passing-down duties. Dobbins is a low-end RB2, but he needs efficiency to continue to pay off for fantasy managers.

Rest of season:

• J.K. Dobbins: low-end RB2
• Gus Edwards: high-end RB4
• Justice Hill: free agent
• Kenyan Drake: free agent

Receivers and tight ends

Rest of season:

• Demarcus Robinson: high-end WR4
• Devin Duvernay: deep-league WR6
• Mark Andrews: high-end TE1
• Isaiah Likely: upside handcuff TE3

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Buffalo Bills

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Good

Run-volume environment: Below average

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Josh Allen: high-end QB1

Running backs

Rest of season:

• Devin Singletary: low-end RB3
• James Cook: upside RB4
• Nyheim Hines: stash RB6

Receivers and tight ends

Rest of season:

• Stefon Diggs: high-end WR1
• Gabriel Davis: boom-bust WR4
• Isaiah McKenzie: low-end WR4
• Khalil Shakir: stash WR6
• Dawson Knox: boom-bust TE2

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Carolina Panthers

Pass-volume environment: Poor

Run-volume environment: Average

Quarterback

Rest of season:

• Sam Darnold: low-end QB2

Running backs

Rest of season:

• D’Onta Foreman: high-end RB3
• Chuba Hubbard: high-end RB4
• Raheem Blackshear: free agent

Receivers and tight ends

Rest of season:

• D.J. Moore: boom-bust WR3
• Terrace Marshall Jr.: deep-league WR6
• Laviska Shenault Jr.: free agent

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Chicago Bears

Pass-volume environment: Poor

Run-volume environment: Good

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Justin Fields: mid-range QB1

Running backs

• Injury: Khalil Herbert could return in Week 16.

Rest of the season:

• David Montgomery: low-end RB2; low-end RB1 until Khalil Herbert returns
• Khalil Herbert: high-end RB3 upon return

Receivers and tight ends

• Injury Update: Chase Claypool didn’t play, and Equanimeous St. Brown left Week 15 early with an injury.

Rest of season:

• Chase Claypool: mid-range WR4
• Cole Kmet: high-end TE2

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Cincinnati Bengals

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Above average

Run-volume environment: Below average

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Joe Burrow: mid-range QB1

Running backs

• Downgrade: Joe Mixon played 72% of snaps before his concussion in Week 11. Since his return, that number is down to 61%. His rush attempt share is also down from 73% to 57%. It appears Samaje Perine carved out a larger role while Mixon was out with a concussion. The Bengals' starting running back has only four top-12 performances in 11 healthy games and is looking like a high-end RB2 rather than an RB1.

Rest of season:

• Joe Mixon: high-end RB2
• Samaje Perine: handcuff RB5

Receivers and tight ends

Rest of season:

• Ja’Marr Chase: high-end WR1
• Tee Higgins: mid-end WR2
• Tyler Boyd: mid-range WR4
• Hayden Hurst: high-end TE2

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Cleveland Browns

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Average

Run-volume environment: Good

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Deshaun Watson: high-end QB2 with QB1 upside

Running backs

Rest of season:

• Nick Chubb: low-end RB1
• Kareem Hunt: high-end RB4 with RB1 contingent upside

Receivers and tight ends

• Downgrade: Amari Cooper has finishes of WR53, WR61 and WR43 since Deshaun Watson took over at quarterback. Over the past two games, he's seen only 11 total targets. Cooper is still the lead option in Cleveland, but it looks like Watson might not be able to shake off the rust. The veteran wideout drops to low-end WR2 status.

Rest of season:

• Amari Cooper: low-end WR2
• Donovan Peoples-Jones: high-end WR4
• David Njoku: mid-range TE1

---

Dallas Cowboys

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Below Average

Run-volume environment: Good

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Dak Prescott: low-end QB1

Running backs

Rest of season:

• Tony Pollard: high-end RB2
• Ezekiel Elliott: mid-range RB2

Receivers and tight ends

Rest of season:

• CeeDee Lamb: low-end WR1
• Michael Gallup: low-end WR4
• Noah Brown: low-end WR5
• Dalton Schultz: mid-range TE1

---

Denver Broncos

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Average

Run-volume environment: Below average

Quarterbacks

• Injury Update: Russell Wilson didn’t play.

Rest of season:

• Russell Wilson: low-end QB2

Running backs

Rest of season:

• Latavius Murray: high-end RB3
• Marlon Mack: PPR RB5

Receivers and tight ends

Rest of season:

• Jerry Jeudy: high-end WR3; low-end WR2 with Courtland Sutton out
• Courtland Sutton: low-end WR3
• Kendall Hinton: free agent
• K.J. Hamler: free agent
• Greg Dulcich: low-end TE1

---

Detroit Lions

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Below average

Run-volume environment: Above average

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Jared Goff: mid-range QB2

Running backs

Rest of season:

• D’Andre Swift: high-end RB3
• Jamaal Williams: high-end RB3
• Justin Jackson: stash RB6

Receivers and tight ends

Rest of season:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown: low-end WR1
• D.J. Chark Jr.: boom-bust WR3
• Jameson Williams: upside stash WR5
• Josh Reynolds: free agent
• Kalif Raymond: free agent
• Brock Wright: free agent

---

Green Bay Packers (Monday Night Football)

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Below average

Run-volume environment: Average

Quarterbacks

• Injury Update: Aaron Rodgers has thumb and rib injuries that could cause him to miss time.

Rest of season:

• Aaron Rodgers: high-end QB2
• Jordan Love: stash QB3

Running backs

• Injury: Aaron Jones was in and out of the lineup due to a shin injury.
• Monitoring: A.J. Dillon was buried behind Jones over the past seven games, but the shin injury opened the door, and the second-year running back played decently. He could carve out a larger role moving forward.

Rest of season:

• Aaron Jones: low-end RB1
• A.J. Dillon: high-end RB3 with contingent RB1 upside

Receivers and tight ends

Rest of season:

• Christian Watson: low-end WR2
• Allen Lazard: mid-range WR3
• Randall Cobb: high-end WR5
• Romeo Doubs: stash WR6
• Robert Tonyan: low-end TE2

---

Houston Texans

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Below average

Run-volume environment: Poor

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Davis Mills: low-end QB2
• Jeff Driskel: free agent; boom-bust TE2 in TE-eligible formats (Yahoo)

Running backs

• Injury Update: Dameon Pierce was placed on injured reserve, ending his season before the Week 15 matchup.
• Monitoring: The running back plan moving forward looks like a nasty three-way split, with Royce Freeman and Dare Ogunbowale taking the early-down work and Rex Burkhead playing passing downs. This looks like a situation for fantasy managers to avoid.

Rest of season:

• Dameon Pierce: season-ending injured reserve
• Royce Freeman: low-end RB3
• Dare Ogunbowale: stash RB5
• Rex Burkhead: free agent

Receivers and tight ends

• Upgrade: Chris Moore has 46% and 33% target shares over his past two games. Historically, he hasn’t been a target earner, but those outings are undeniably strong in that department. He could still be a flash in the pan, but as long as Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks remain sidelined, Moore has WR4 potential.

Rest of season:

• Brandin Cooks: low-end WR4
• Nico Collins: mid-range WR4
• Chris Moore: high-end WR4 while Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins are sidelined
• Jordan Akins: mid-range TE2

Indianapolis Colts

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Above average

Run-volume environment: Average

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Matt Ryan: low-end QB2

Running backs

• Injury Update: Jonathan Taylor suffered a high-ankle sprain on the first drive and was unable to return. The superstar RB is likely done for the season.
• Upgrade: With Jonathan Taylor injured, Zack Moss led the backfield with 67% of the snaps, 57% of the rushing attempts and dominated 83% of SDD situations. The former Bill shared passing downs, leading the way in LDD, but trailing Deon Jackson in the two-minute offense. It is hard to completely trust one data point, but Moss moves into the high-end RB3 range and could have an RB2 upside.

Rest of season:

• Jonathan Taylor: mid-range RB1 if he returns
• Zack Moss: mid-range RB3 with mid-range RB2 upside
• Deon Jackson: low-end RB4

Receivers and tight ends

Rest of season:

• Michael Pittman Jr.: low-end WR2
• Parris Campbell: mid-range WR5
• Alec Pierce: upside WR5
• Kylen Granson: free agent

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Jacksonville Jaguars

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Above average

Run-volume environment: Average

Quarterbacks

• Upgrade: Trevor Lawrence has three top-five fantasy finishes in his last four outings. Over that span, he averages 297 yards and 2.8 TDs per game through the air. The former No. 1 overall draft pick is peaking at the best time of the season for fantasy managers. Lawrence is a mid-range QB1 moving forward.

Rest of season:

• Trevor Lawrence: mid-range QB1

Running backs

Rest of season:

• Travis Etienne: mid-range RB2
• JaMycal Hasty: stash RB6

Receivers and tight ends

• Upgrade: Zay Jones has three top-seven finishes in three of his last four games, averaging 27% of the team’s targets in that span. His 22% target share trails only Christian Kirk (23%), and the duo has turned into more of a 1A and 1B situation with the eruption of Trevor Lawrence. Jones is a high-end WR3.

Rest of season:

• Christian Kirk: high-end WR2
• Zay Jones: high-end WR3
• Marvin Jones: mid-range WR5
• Evan Engram: mid-range TE1

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Kansas City Chiefs

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Good

Run-volume environment: Poor

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Patrick Mahomes: high-end QB1

Running backs

• Upgrade: Jerick McKinnon has back-to-back No. 1 RB performances and has five TDs in the last three games. Isiah Pacheco remains the primary ball carrier, but McKinnon has 16 targets over the past two weeks, and he is coming through with big plays. The veteran RB is locked into the Chiefs’ passing plans as of right now and is a must-start RB in all formats. It will be hard for McKinnon to keep up these performances, but his upside is undeniable, making him RB2-worthy.

Rest of season:

• Isiah Pacheco: low-end RB2
• Jerick McKinnon: PPR mid-range RB2
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire: stash RB6

Receivers and tight ends

Rest of season:

• Travis Kelce: the TE1
• JuJu Smith-Schuster: low-end WR2
• Mecole Hardman: boom-bust WR4 upon return
• Kadarius Toney: stash upside WR6
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: low-end WR5
• Skyy Moore: free agent

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Las Vegas Raiders

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Average

Run-volume environment: Below average

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Derek Carr: high-end QB2

Running backs

Rest of season:

• Josh Jacobs: high-end RB1
• Zamir White: stash RB6
• Ameer Abdullah: free agent

Receivers and tight ends

• Monitoring: Darren Waller returned from IR to post a top-eight TE finish. However, his was hardly targeted (9%), and his routes were limited (66%). The veteran tight end has yet to prove he can earn the love and affection of Derek Darr with DaVante Adams on the field. His 16% TPRR is well below previous seasons. Waller’s reputation earns him a low-end TE1 grade, but he isn’t a must-start until he shows more.
• Monitoring: Hunter Renfrow also returned from IR but was unable to get anything going. Mack Hollins has locked down the No. 2 WR role when the team goes to two-TE and two-RB sets. That relegates Renfrow to slot-only status – something most Josh McDaniel slot receivers have historically avoided. Renfrow is merely a stash WR6.

Rest of season:

• Davante Adams: high-end WR1
• Mack Hollins: mid-range WR4
• Hunter Renfrow: stash WR6
• Darren Waller: low-end TE1

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Los Angeles Rams (Monday Night Football)

Team ranks

 

Pass-volume environment: Above Average

Run-volume environment: Poor

Quarterbacks

 

Rest of season:

• Baker Mayfield: free agent

Running backs

Rest of season:

• Cam Akers: high-end RB3
• Kyren Williams: PPR RB5

Receivers and tight ends

 

Rest of season:

 

• Van Jefferson: mid-range WR4
• Bennett Skowronek: deep-league WR6
• Tyler Higbee: boom-bust TE2

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Los Angeles Chargers

Pass-volume environment: Good

Run-volume environment: Poor

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Justin Herbert: mid-range QB1

Running backs

Rest of season:

• Austin Ekeler: high-end RB1
• Joshua Kelley: priority handcuff RB5
• Isaiah Spiller: free agent

Receivers and tight ends

Rest of season:

• Keenan Allen: high-end WR2
• Mike Williams: mid-range WR2
• Josh Palmer: high-end WR4
• DeAndre Carter: deep league WR6
• Gerald Everett: low-end TE1

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Miami Dolphins

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Above average

Run-volume environment: Poor

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Tua Tagovailoa: low-end QB1

Running backs

• Injury Update: Jeff Wilson Jr. didn’t play.

Rest of season:

• Jeff Wilson Jr.: mid-range RB3
• Raheem Mostert: mid-range RB3; mid-range RB2 if Jeff Wilson Jr. misses time

Receivers and tight ends

Rest of season:

• Tyreek Hill: high-end WR1
• Jaylen Waddle: high-end WR2
• Mike Gesicki: free agent

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Minnesota Vikings

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Good

Run-volume environment: Below average

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Kirk Cousins: low-end QB1

Running backs

Rest of season:

• Dalvin Cook: low-end RB1
• Alexander Mattison: handcuff RB5

Receivers and tight ends

• Upgrade: K.J. Osborn has back-to-back top-24 performances thanks to a 31.7 outburst in Week 15 in the Vikings’ historical comeback against the Colts. Minnesota’s pass-first nature makes Osborn worth a look as a WR5, given his last two performances, but he is a boom-bust type of option. His 14% TPRR mirrors similar career marks, and this is a crowded offense.

Rest of season:

• Justin Jefferson: high-end WR1
• Adam Thielen: mid-range WR3
• K.J. Osborn: boom-bust WR5
• T.J. Hockenson: mid-range TE1

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New England Patriots

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Below average

Run-volume environment: Average

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Mac Jones: low-end QB2

Running backs

• Monitoring: Pierre Strong Jr. appears to be next in line behind Rhamondre Stevenson. The fourth-round rookie could be the No. 2 in New England in 2023.

Rest of season:

• Rhamondre Stevenson: low-end RB1; mid-range RB1 if Harris is out
• Damien Harris: low-end RB4
• Pierre Strong Jr.: stash RB6

Receivers and tight ends

Rest of season:

• Jakobi Meyers: low-end WR3
• DeVante Parker: free agent
• Nelson Agholor: free agent
• Tyquan Thornton: free agent
• Kendrick Bourne: free agent
• Hunter Henry: mid-range TE2

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New Orleans Saints

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Below average

Run-volume environment: Average

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Andy Dalton: low-end QB2

Running backs

Rest of season:

• Alvin Kamara: mid-range RB2
• David Jonson: free agent

Receivers and tight ends

• Upgrade: Rashid Shaheed’s route participation has been climbing for the last three games and crescendoed with a season-high 95% in Week 15. He delivered a top-16 WR finish on 18.5 fantasy points. Shaheed isn’t a high-end target earner (16% TPRR), but he has a strong ADOT (15.2) and boasts a juicy 2.76 YPRR. The undrafted rookie out of Weber State is a boom-bust WR4 candidate the rest of the way.

Rest of season:

• Chris Olave: low-end WR2
• Rashid Shaheed: boom-bust WR4
• Jarvis Landry: deep-league WR6
• Juwan Johnson: high-end TE2
• Taysom Hill: boom-bust TE2

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New York Giants

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Below average

Run-volume environment: Above average

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Daniel Jones: high-end QB2

Running backs

Rest of season:

• Barkley: mid-range RB1
• Breida: RB6 stash

Receivers and tight ends

Rest of season:

• Darius Slayton: mid-range WR4
• Richie James Jr: low-end WR4
• Daniel Bellinger: low-end TE2

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New York Jets

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Above average

Run-volume environment: Below average

Quarterbacks

• Injury Update: Mike White didn’t play (ribs) and is unlikely to suit up this Thursday.

Rest of season:

• Mike White: mid-range QB2
• Zach Wilson: mid-range QB until Mike White returns

Running backs

• Monitoring: Zonovan Knight disappointed fantasy managers with 2.3 points in Week 15. However, his role didn’t change – he was still the No. 1 RB, with 59% of the rushing attempts. Michael Carter remains the lead passing-down option.

Rest of season:

• Zonovan Knight: low-end RB2
• Michael Carter: low-end RB3
• Ty Johnson: free agent
• James Robinson: free agent

Receivers and tight ends

• Injury Update: Corey Davis (concussion) didn’t play but should return for Thursday Night Football.

Rest of season:

• Garrett Wilson: mid-end WR2
• Corey Davis: mid-range WR4
• Elijah Moore: boom-bust WR5
• Tyler Conklin: low-end TE2

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Philadelphia Eagles

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Below average

Run-volume environment: Good

Quarterbacks

• Monitoring: Jalen Hurts suffered a sprain to his throwing shoulder. The Eagles have not ruled him out for Week 16, but most reports are leaning toward Gardner Minshew as the starter. Minshew isn't Hurts, but he might be the best replacement option depending on your league size. The Cowboys' defense was demolished by Trevor Lawrence last weekend, and Minshew has elite weapons around him. He would be a high-end QB2 option if Hurts is out.

Rest of season:

• Jalen Hurts: high-end QB1

Running backs

• Monitoring: Miles Sanders bombed in the boxscore with only 11 rush attempts for 42 yards against a terrible Bears’ run defense. However, his role remains unchanged, and fantasy managers will have to deal with the boom-bust nature of his role. No other offense converts more drives to TDs (34%) than the Eagles, who also run the ball more than any other team with 30.4 rushing attempts per game in non-overtime play.

Rest of season:

• Miles Sanders: high-end RB2
• Kenneth Gainwell: stash RB6
• Boston Scott: stash RB6

Receivers and tight ends

• Injury Update: Dallas Goedert could return in Week 15, which will impact DeVonta Smith’s value as the Eagles’ run-heavy attack spreads across more weapons.

Rest of season:

• A.J. Brown: low-end WR1; mid-range WR1 while Dallas Goedert is out
• DeVonta Smith: high-end WR3; mid-range WR2 while Dallas Goedert is out
• Dallas Goedert: mid-range TE1

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Pittsburgh Steelers

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Average

Run-volume environment: Average

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Kenny Pickett: low-end QB2

Running backs

Rest of season:

• Najee Harris: low-end RB2
• Jaylen Warren: low-end RB4 with contingency RB2 upside

Receivers and tight ends

Rest of season:

• Diontae Johnson: mid-range WR3
• George Pickens: mid-range WR4
• Steven Sims: free agent
• Pat Freiermuth: mid-range TE1

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San Francisco 49ers

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Below average

Run-volume environment: Above average

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Brock Purdy: mid-range QB2

Running backs

Rest of season:

• Christian McCaffrey: high-end RB1
• Jordan Mason: stash RB5
• Tyrion Davis-Price: stash RB6

Receivers and tight ends

• Monitoring: Jauan Jennings saw a significant bump in playing time with Deebo Samuel out.
• Upgrade: George Kittle delivered the No. 1 TE performance of Week 15 with four receptions for 93 yards and two TDs on five targets. Historically, the TEs have performed well in games without Deebo Samuel in this offense. Kittle still has weekly bust potential in a run-first offense where Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk will get looks, but this is a reminder that his upside is superior to almost every other TE.

Rest of season:

• Deebo Samuel: boom-bust WR3
• Brandon Aiyuk: boom-bust WR3; low-end WR2 while Deebo Samuel is out
• George Kittle: high-end boom-bust TE1 while Deebo Samuel is out
• Jauan Jennings: deep-league WR6 while Deebo Samuel is out

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Seattle Seahawks

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Average

Run-volume environment: Poor

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Geno Smith: mid-range QB1

Running backs

• Monitoring: Kenneth Walker III only managed 11.9 fantasy points in a tough matchup against the 49ers’ defense, but he dominated 92% of the rushing attempts and handled 73% of the two-minute offense. Travis Homer continues to handle most of the LDD opportunities.

Rest of season:

• Kenneth Walker III: low-end RB1
• Travis Homer: low-end PPR RB5
• DeeJay Dallas: stash RB6

Receivers and tight ends

• Injury Update: Tyler Lockett had surgery on his fractured finger. He will miss at least one week, but it could be longer.
• Short-term Upgrade: Marquise Goodwin moves into boom-bust WR5 territory while Tyler Lockett is out.

Rest of season:

• K. Metcalf: high-end WR2
• Tyler Lockett: mid-range WR2
• Marquise Goodwin: boom-bust WR5 while Tyler Lockett is out
• Noah Fant: mid-range TE2

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Good

Run-volume environment: Poor

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Tom Brady: high-end QB2

Running backs

Rest of season:

• Rachaad White: high-end RB3
• Leonard Fournette: high-end RB3

Receivers and tight ends

• Injury Update: Julio Jones didn’t play.
• Short-Term Upgrade: Russell Gage demonstrated WR3 traits during his time in Atlanta despite a terrible offense. Injuries have derailed his inaugural season in Tampa Bay, but Week 15 was a reminder that he could have long-term value if Tom Brady hangs around in 2023 and Julio Jones moves on. Gage registered a team-leading 29% target share and finished as the No. 5 WR in Week 15. He enters the WR4 conversation if Jones misses another game.

Rest of season:

• Mike Evans: low-end WR2
• Chris Godwin: mid-range WR2
• Julio Jones: mid-range WR5
• Russell Gage: high-end WR4 if Julio Jones is out
• Cade Otton: low-end TE2
• Cameron Brate: free agent

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Tennessee Titans

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Poor

Run-volume environment: Above average

Quarterbacks

• Injury Update: Ryan Tannehill briefly left the game due to an ankle injury.

Rest of season:

• Ryan Tannehill: low-end QB2

Running backs

• Injury Update: Dontrell Hilliard missed Week 15.
• Monitoring: Derrick Henry played a role in the two-minute offense again with Dontrell Hilliard out. However, Hassan Haskins also mixed in on pass-downs.

Rest of season:

• Derrick Henry: mid-range RB1; high-end RB1 while Dontrell Hilliard is out
• Dontrell Hilliard: low-end RB4 with RB2 contingent upside
• Hassan Haskins: stash RB6

Receivers and tight ends

• Injury Update: Treylon Burks (concussion) didn’t play.

Rest of season:

• Treylon Burks: upside WR3
• Robert Woods: deep-league WR6
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: deep-league WR6; mid-range WR5 while Treylon Burks is out
• Austin Hooper: mid-range TE2
• Chigoziem Okonkwo: high-end TE2; low-end TE1 while Treylon Burks is out

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Washington Commanders

Team ranks

Pass-volume environment: Average

Run-volume environment: Above average

Quarterbacks

Rest of season:

• Taylor Heinicke: low-end QB2

Running backs

Rest of season:

• Brian Robinson: high-end RB2
• Antonio Gibson: low-end RB3

Receivers and tight ends

• Upgrade: Jahan Dotson has shown signs of life over the last two games with WR18 and WR9 finishes. He has 21% and 19% target shares and 28% and 32% of the air yards. The Commanders are utilizing heavy play action to find space for their 2022 first-round pick. He has as many endzone targets as Terry McLaurin (22%) despite missing multiple games. Long-term, Dotson’s profile remains questionable, with a 13% TPRR and 1.17 YPRR, but he could come on to close out the season. The rookie moves into upside WR4 territory.

Rest of season:

• Terry McLaurin: mid-range WR2
• Jahan Dotson: upside WR4
• Curtis Samuel: mid-range WR4
• Logan Thomas: low-end TE2

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Data notes and acronyms:

1st/2nd = First and second downs
LDD = long down and distance (third and fourth down with three or more yards to go)
SDD = short down and distance (second, third and fourth down with two or fewer yards to go)

i5 = inside the five-yard line
2MIN = two-minute offense (hurry-up offense)

Close = score within three points

Lead = leading by four points or more

Trail = trailing by four points or more

Plays = penalties included for utilization splits and rates

Pass Play = all dropbacks (i.e., attempts, sacks and scrambles)

ADOT = average depth of target

Air Yards = ADOT multiplied by targets

TTT = average time to throw

PA = play action

PA Targets = percentage of player's targets that came using play action

Fantasy finishes = through Sunday night game

YPRR = yards per route run

TPRR = targets per route run

EZ = end zone

TOP = Time of possession

Pass vs. Run Splits = based on the percentage of time a team throws or passes

FAB = Free agent budget (based on home leagues; adjust percentages in more competitive formats)