• WR Curtis Samuel, Buffalo Bills: Samuel has a chance to function as offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s versatile chess piece this season.
• WR Luke McCaffrey, Washington Commanders: The rookie wide receiver is in play for Washington’s No. 2 pass-catcher role.
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Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
The NFL preseason provides fantasy football managers with clarity on veterans and rookies alike. Association with the first-team offenses, either through preseason snaps or lack thereof, tips the coaching staff’s hand as to each player’s intended regular-season usage.
Here, we break down three NFL players who fantasy football managers should watch closely through the 2024 NFL preseason.
WR Curtis Samuel, Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills‘ wide receiver corps begins anew with former Nos. 1 and 2 wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer in-house. The front office revamped the unit via the 2024 NFL Draft and free agency, reuniting offensive coordinator Joe Brady with his 2020 Carolina Panthers pupil, wide receiver Curtis Samuel, who has a chance to establish himself as a reliable target hog after a highly volatile seven-year career.
Samuel’s potential makes him a player to watch in the 2024 NFL preseason. Among 80 wide receivers with at least 545 offensive snaps in 2023, Diggs’ 79.4 PFF overall grade ranked 20th, Davis’ 67.9 mark ranked 50th and Samuel’s 69.7 figure ranked 45th.
Playing under Brady, then Carolina’s offensive coordinator, Samuel posted career highs in yards per route run (1.94), catch rate (82.8%), slot-target rate (15.0%), yards per route run when lined up in the slot (1.84), deep-target rate when lined up on the perimeter (30.0%), yards per route run when lined up on the perimeter (2.46), receptions (77), receiving yards (851) and explosive pass plays (24). The multi-faceted usage and successes bode positively for Samuel’s pre-snap wide receiver deployment in 2024.
Brady also featured Samuel as a part-time rusher, helping the wideout to career highs in rushing attempts (41), missed tackles forced (12), rushing yards (200), rushing touchdowns (two) and green-zone rushing attempts (three).
First-round rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman and third-year veteran Khalil Shakir make up Samuel’s primary positional target competition. Coleman remains one of three must-draft rookie wide receivers, capable of assuming an alpha passing game role by season’s end. Brady’s fast-paced, high-volume offense offsets concerns related to his likely balanced run-pass ratio and the team’s available target shares. Coleman and Samuel can coexist.
Shakir’s stark pre-snap alignment results likely confine him to the slot, and therefore three-wide receiver sets. In 2022 and 2023, Shakir respectively averaged 1.99 and 2.08 yards per route run in the slot and just 0.65 and 0.66 when lined up on the perimeter. He earned a 76.9 PFF receiving grade last year.
While Samuel’s season-long results leave something to be desired, his talent as a high-end No. 2 wide receiver is undeniable. Among 96 wide receivers with at least 1,500 offensive snaps from 2020 to 2023, Samuel’s 76.6 PFF overall grade tied for 39th.
Samuel will notably catch passes from Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen, unquestionably the best quarterback of his career. Allen’s 88.2 PFF passing grade ranked second among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 280 dropbacks in 2023.
Fantasy managers must monitor Samuel’s preseason utilization.
WR Luke McCaffrey, Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders enter 2024 with a wide-open pass-catcher depth chart behind No. 1 wide receiver Terry McLaurin, giving third-round rookie wide receiver Luke McCaffrey the opportunity to start as the team’s Week 1 No. 2 pass-catcher. He is a player to watch closely in the 2024 NFL preseason. Among 32 NFL wide receivers with at least 830 offensive snaps in 2023, McLaurin’s 75.1 PFF overall grade ranked 19th. Among 47 FBS wide receivers with at least 745 offense snaps last season, McCaffrey’s 80.4 mark ranked ninth.
McCaffrey converted from quarterback to wide receiver in 2022, after his first season playing at Rice in 2021. He began his college career at Nebraska.
His successes as a centerfield dominator are detailed in the pre-draft piece “4 Best Role Players in the 2024 NFL Draft.”
“Among FBS wide receivers to earn at least 30 targets thrown between the hashes over the past two years, McCaffrey produced seven top-six finishes in seven per-play statistical categories, including perfect averages in catchable-pass catch rate (100.0%) and dropped pass rate (0.0%) in 2022. His 20.6 yards per reception in 2023 finished second.”
He showed promising year-to-year development, going from a 77.4 PFF receiving grade in 2022 to an 82.7 figure in 2023 while maintaining a 2.10-plus yards per route run average in both seasons.
McCaffrey profiles as a modern-day slot receiver (6-foot-2, 195 pounds) and played primarily on the inside at Rice. He also demonstrated exceptional versatility as a perimeter wide receiver. averaging 2.27 and 2.61 yards per route run when lined up wide in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The promising results crucially keep him in play as a candidate for two-receiver sets. The starting slot role in three-receiver sets should already be considered a near-lock.
McCaffrey also has the benefit of catching passes from 2023 Heisman Trophy winner and first-round rookie Jayden Daniels, whose 92.0 PFF passing grade and 8.4% big-time-throw rate in 2023 both ranked second among 30 Power Five quarterbacks with at least 380 dropbacks.
McCaffrey will likely contribute as a part-time rusher and potential wildcat quarterback. Among 16 FBS wide receivers with at least 25 rushing attempts over the past two seasons, McCaffrey’s 78.2 PFF rushing grade ranks fourth, and both his 4.8 yards after contact per rushing attempt and 9.9 yards per rushing attempt rank second.
Upon landing in Washington via the 101st overall pick, McCaffrey was identified as one of three must-draft rookie wide receivers, thanks to his strong profile and weak target competition. Both aspects remain true today. He is a player to watch closely in the 2024 NFL preseason.
QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots
New England Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye offers fantasy managers a week-winning profile with the final pick in both home league and best ball drafts, thanks to his quietly deep pass-catching corps and elite rushing traits. He currently projects as journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s early-season backup, though, so Maye’s preseason play holds significant sway over his September playing time.
Maye’s 92.7 PFF overall grade from 2022 to 2023 ties for third among 30 Power Five quarterbacks with at least 1,200 offensive snaps over the past two seasons. Brissett’s 85.2 mark over the same span ties for 12th among 40 NFL quarterbacks with at least 800 offensive snaps.
Maye’s dynamism and fantasy-friendly offensive environment are detailed extensively in “3 Must-Draft Rookie Quarterbacks“ and “The Best Rushers In The 2024 NFL Draft.” Standing 6-foot-4, 223 pounds, Maye is tough to bring down with momentum on his side. Among 30 Power Five quarterbacks with at least 115 rushing attempts from 2022 to 2023, Maye ranks 16th in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.19), 11th in yards per rushing attempt (6.0), eighth in explosive run-play rate (22.9%), seventh in yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.5) and fourth in first-down-plus-touchdown conversion rate (41.2%).
As shown in the former article, New England’s expected reliance on three-wide receiver sets (11 personnel) bodes positively for both the strong-armed Maye and the team’s upgraded wide receiver corps. Among 33 Power Five quarterbacks with at least 450 dropbacks in 11 personnel over the past two years, Maye’s 91.8 PFF passing grade and 8.8% big-time-throw rate both rank No. 1 overall. He holds a 1.8% gap over the second-ranked quarterback in the latter category.
New England faces a brutal Weeks 1-4 schedule, with matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers. Unless Maye wows in the preseason, the coaching staff will likely try to protect his development by starting Brissett throughout that stretch. The schedule softens in Weeks 5-7, with games against the Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars, allowing Maye to play with urgency and keep pace with the opposition’s talented offenses, but with relative safety against weaker defenses.
Fantasy managers should monitor Maye’s preseason play closely. If he plays well enough to earn the starting role, a late-round draft pick may be warranted. If Brissett’s status as the Weeks 1-4 starter becomes apparent, it may be prudent to target Maye as a Weeks 2-3 waiver wire pickup.
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