The user's guide to streaming quarterbacks in fantasy

Still not sold that you’re better off letting someone else draft Aaron Rodgers in the second round?

Of the top-seven fantasy QBs from 2016, four were being drafted last summer as backups (Kirk Cousins – QB14 by ADP; Matthew Stafford – QB16; Dak Prescott – QB19; Matt Ryan – QB23). Conversely, of the seven highest-drafted QBs, four failed to return starter value in terms of total fantasy points on their own (Cam Newton – QB1 ADP; Russell Wilson – QB3; Ben Roethlisberger – QB6; Tom Brady – QB7). Over the past decade, we’ve seen only one instance of a repeat overall No. 1 fantasy QB (Drew Brees in 2011-12), and if we exclude Rodgers from last season, the next 18 QBs all averaged within five fantasy points per game of one another.

Hence, the popularity of the late-round QB draft strategy. And during the season, many of those drafters will play the weekly waiver wire or employ a quarterback by committee lineup approach, relying on two lower-ranked QBs to rotate into the starting lineup based on matchups in order to get optimal production without sacrificing valuable draft capital. It’s sort of like playing the field in a prop wager, only we can tilt the odds in our favor with research, and we also get to realize the opportunity cost of not drafting, say, Rob Gronkowski at 2.08 instead of Rodgers. Of course, finding low-cost value at QB also helps maximize available salary when filling out DFS lineups.

But how does one go about streaming QBs? What are the key elements in such an approach, and how can we enhance the likelihood of it paying off rather than merely becoming a weekly lineup headache? Every Tuesday during the season keep an eye out for my piece on the top streaming options for the upcoming week. Until then, here’s a primer on general strategy and some of the biggest dos and don’ts.

Home/away splits

This one’s easy, right? Prioritize quarterbacks playing at home over those on the road. Except, we need to understand which QBs are most (and least) impacted by home/road splits. Of the 71 QBs who have played a minimum of three home and away games since 2014, there has been an aggregate difference of only 0.25 fantasy points per game when playing versus on the road. Still, there are some names that stand out from the pack.

The little dot at the top-left is Ben Roethlisberger, representing an average difference of 10.53 fantasy points per game at home compared to on the road. In fact, he has averaged more fantasy points at home than any other QB in the league since 2014. Even though the Steelers play at Heinz Field for only three of their first nine games, I’m still drafting Roethlisberger at his late-ninth-round ADP as the QB12 and simply streaming someone else when he’s on the road. Some other notable standouts who perform better at home: Dak Prescott (+6.4), Drew Brees (4.9), Joe Flacco (4.3), Tyrod Taylor (3.23), Tom Brady (3.01), Aaron Rodgers (2.94), Eli Manning (2.59), Matthew Stafford (2.48), and Derek Carr (2.18).

The dot all the way on the bottom right is Miami’s Matt Moore (-9.43). Some other names who have shown a tendency to elevate their game on the road: Mike Glennon (-5.8), Cody Kessler (-4.84), Jared Goff (-4.46), Colin Kaepernick (-3.94), Jay Cutler (-2.04), Jameis Winston (-1.39), Kirk Cousins (-1.28), Marcus Mariota (-1.27), and Russell Wilson (-1.17).

Stay ahead of bye weeks

Bye weeks should be of little consequence when drafting our fantasy squad. But if you’re going to be streaming quarterbacks – either by design or because your regular starter gets injured – then it becomes critical to plan around bye weeks. After all, it doesn’t do me much good to draft both Tyrod Taylor and Andy Dalton in the double-digit rounds, since neither will be playing in Week 6. All of this year’s byes will fall between Weeks 5-11, with as many as six teams all having a bye during three of those weeks.

Therefore, it’s also important to keep in mind that your competitors will be scouring the waiver wire during the bye-week period. That means that if you’re not streaming two quarterbacks on your roster, then you’ll want to do some advanced scouting and pick up your ideal bye-week replacement a couple weeks prior in order to beat demand. Let’s say I drafted Roethlisberger in the ninth round, knowing that Pittsburgh has a Week 9 bye sandwiched between two road games. Someone like Taylor would certainly make sense to draft as a backup a few rounds later, considering that during Weeks 8-10 Buffalo gets the Raiders (20th in PFF pass coverage grade in 2016), Jets (29th) and Saints (31st).

Vegas implied totals

This one shouldn’t require a whole lot of explanation, but we want to avoid expected low-scoring affairs. If you’re unfamiliar with the term “implied total,” it basically uses Vegas odds and over/unders to predict how many points a team will score. You simply take the game total, divide by two, and then add half the spread to the favorite and subtract half the spread from the underdog.

For example, Cody Kessler (assuming he is the Browns’ Week 1 starter) may have streaming appeal some weeks, but not Week 1 when the Browns host the Giants, who finished No. 5 last year in pass-coverage grade and No. 14 in pass rush. Cleveland is getting 1.5 points with the over/under set at 38, for an implied total of 18 points. That won’t help win your weekly matchup or your DFS entry. Someone like Mike Glennon may not inspire a ton of confidence, but with an implied total of 22 points against Atlanta, the Bears are at least expected to put a few more points on the board.

Connecting PFF stats

One of my go-to ratings on the PFF “signature stats” page is offensive line pass-blocking efficiency. Carson Wentz was a regularly endorsed streaming option early in the season last year, not just because of his hot start, but also because Philadelphia’s O-line was the No. 4 pass-blocking unit while RT Lane Johnson was active. Ditto Brian Hoyer, whose string of four straight 300-yard passing games came behind a Bears’ OL that posted the third-best PBE rating. On the flip side, defenses at the bottom of PFF’s team pass-rush grades steer me to the opposing QBs worth considering for that upcoming week who particularly stand out with a clean pocket.

Of course, PFF also tracks which QBs perform best under pressure as well as which are the most accurate with the deep ball. And DFS aficionados always know to look out for our weekly WR-CB matchup chart to pinpoint individual matchups that a QB will likely try to exploit.

Another pairing I look for is when a productive rushing offense is paired with a QB who excels in play-action passing – it only takes one well-sold play fake to get a safety to bite and then hit a receiver over the top for a long score. Specifically, Dak Prescott (119.0 QB rating on play-action), Philip Rivers (115.9), Jameis Winston (115.0), and Ryan Tannehill (112.8) were a few streaming candidates who stood out in that category in 2016.

Mobile QBs can be a great cheap date

Volume isn’t the only path to fantasy success for a quarterback. Coveted dual-threat quarterbacks are a cheat code to the volume equation, as their efficiency is evidenced in fantasy points per dropback. Below are the top-eight QBs from last season in terms of FPPDB, along with where each player ranked among QBs in terms of fantasy points from rushing, and where they ranked in number of pass attempts.

Here we see a couple of elite pocket passers mixed in with a bunch of mobile QBs (and Aaron Rodgers, who is both). One notable omission is Cam Newton, who was second in fantasy points as a rusher (65.9) but was only the No. 16 fantasy QB in a down year. However, as recently as 2015, Newton led all QBs in fantasy points (407), points per dropback (0.73) and fantasy points as a rusher (123.6). Again, value is the name of the game here. For example, there are 18 other quarterbacks currently being drafted before Tyrod Taylor in the 12th round, yet he was seventh in fantasy points from Week 2 to Week 16 and rushed for at least 25 yards in 13 of those games.

Target weak defenses

Duh! It’s one thing to look at 2016 pass defense statistics and rankings to shape our early-season matchups, but the landscape can change from week to week – sometimes dramatically – as injured players get healthy, struggling players improve or get replaced, a new scheme eventually clicks or players simply begin to gel into a cohesive unit.

The Packers might have ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs in 2016 (and dead-last in PFF coverage grade), but over the final five weeks of the season, they were seventh-best in points allowed, ninth in sacks and first in interceptions. If you were only looking at season-long stats and continuing to stream any old QB facing the Packers, you may have gotten bounced from your fantasy playoffs in Week 15 when Matt Barkley turned the ball over four times. Now, that doesn’t exactly make Green Bay a defense to avoid entering 2017, but it’s a reminder that we need to always be looking beyond the surface and stay mindful of recent play among all factors like matchup history, home/road splits, weather etc. And that leads into the next point.

Shrink the sample size

This one goes against conventional wisdom in fantasy that we typically want as large a data sample size as possible to draw more definitive conclusions. But in the streaming game, we’re trying to uncover QBs with hidden value who are largely being passed over by the public.

To that end, in doing my weekly prep I’ve settled on a routine of charting PFF data from the previous three to four weeks. Names like Prescott, Mariota, Hoyer, and Wentz were covered regularly in this space during the early portion of the 2016 season when all remained lightly owned and outside the top-10 in terms of bottom-line fantasy production. But whether it was Wentz’ accuracy despite the high number of drops, Mariota’s improved deep ball or Prescott’s ability to keep cool under pressure, there were signs of what was to come buried beneath the surface-level stats that your peers rely on.

When streaming, use season-long data for context, but also break things down into a window of the previous few weeks in order to uncover trends and debunk commonly accepted narratives.

Strength of schedule

Without any actual current data to go off, targeting specific matchups is admittedly a bit tricky early in the season. Sure, we have the names and schemes and may have a pretty good idea of which defenses can expect improvement or regression against the pass. Earlier this summer, our Pat Thorman put together a whole series on quarterback strength of schedule for 2017, looking at everything from pairings to early- and late-season matchup targets. It’s worth your time to check it out.

Week 1 will see Sam Bradford host the Saints, Tyrod Taylor welcome the Jets, and Carson Palmer face a Lions team that allowed a weekly average of 19 fantasy points, which equated to last year’s QB6. In Week 2, Palmer gets the Colts, Joe Flacco hosts the Browns, and Eli Manning takes on the Lions among a handful of other enticing matchups, all of which we’ll cover in more detail each week during the season when my QB streamers piece gets released.