Fantasy Football: Safest pick in each round of fantasy drafts

• The Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow connection has been elite since 2021: Even without his star quarterback for much of last season, Chase finished as a top-10 PPR wide receiver.

• The stability of the tight end position year-to-year provides several comfort picks: There are a few highly-drafted tight ends to target who we can safely predict to deliver on their ADPs in 2024.

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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

With fantasy football draft season in full swing and average draft positions starting to solidify during the preseason, there is a wide range of outcomes for several different fantasy options for 2024. However, we may only sometimes want to take the risk on certain players, especially in the earlier rounds of drafts. 

Going round by round, we’ll identify the players with the safest range of outcomes, assuming good health, that drafters may want to target to secure some of the more reliable production floors for 2024.

Round 1: WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

The first round of fantasy drafts is full of players who should have safe floors and high-upside, so there’s more than one from that group of 12 who would qualify for this list, but Chase stands out as one of the better bets. Since he entered the league in 2021, he’s finished as a top-12 PPR wide receiver in all three seasons, including last year (WR10) despite his quarterback Joe Burrow missing the second half of the season due to an injury.

Entering his fourth season, Chase, with a healthy Joe Burrow, has a chance to elevate his game to another level where his top-five ADP may very well be the floor of what he’s capable of during his prime years. Since 2021, Chase’s 90.9 receiving grade is a top-12 mark, as is his 2.19 yards per route (min. 500 routes). Chase’s ceiling is arguably even higher as he continues to come into his own as an NFL wide receiver, and with Joe Burrow throwing him the ball, there are no concerns about quarterback play holding him back from getting there.

Ja’Marr Chase’s WR ranks since 2021:

Round 2: TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

LaPorta is coming off a historic rookie season for a tight end, finishing as the overall TE1 on the year, as a significant part of the Lions' newly efficient offense that ranked as one of the best in the league in 2023. LaPorta’s role was not just as the go-to tight end in that offense, but he emerged as the second-best receiving threat on the offense behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown, which is not just impressive for a tight end, but a rookie tight end makes that feat all the more promising for his fantasy outlook heading into Year 2.

LaPorta’s 23.9% target rate for the year, including the playoffs, ranked third among tights end, ahead of even Travis Kelce – the Kansas City Chiefs’ top offensive target. The Lions offense became very tight end-dependant in 2023, as Jared Goff targeted the position at a top-five rate (22.3%) among quarterbacks (min. 350 dropbacks). As a result, LaPorta delivered eight top-five weekly finishes at his position on the season – more than any other tight end, with three more inside the top 10. As a younger player, this is incredibly promising for his outlook this season to the point where him finishing no worse than top-five at his position again shouldn’t be in any doubt, and that kind of floor makes him a very safe bet in the second round of fantasy drafts this year.

Sam LaPorta’s rookie season (2023) and rookie TE ranks since 2006 (min. 250 routes):

Round 3: QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

As the second quarterback off the board, Hurts is another player with top-five at his position floor, as he finished top-three at his position in back-to-back seasons. The combination of Hurts’ high-end rushing production, his usage around the goal-line and elite weapons in the passing game is the perfect trifecta that we’re looking for when it comes to our fantasy quarterbacks. Arguably, no other player at his position hits on all three of those criteria quite like Hurts heading into 2024.

Over the past two seasons with both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith as his primary weapons, Hurts has delivered no less than 3,700 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 600 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns in a season. No other quarterback has checked more than two of those boxes over the past two seasons, including Josh Allen, who is being drafted one round ahead of Hurts. The Eagles figure to once again be among the top offenses in the NFL thanks to a combination of Hurts and his elite offensive weapons, which should lead to his high-end production remaining as consistent as it has been over the past two seasons, and making him one of the safest bets through three rounds of a fantasy draft.

Jalen Hurts QB ranks since 2022:

Round 4: TE Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

Another tight end makes the list, which shouldn’t be a surprise when talking about safety and consistency, as tight end fantasy production continues to be among the most stable, partly due to the smaller selection of options that can be fantasy-relevant year-to-year. McBride put himself in that conversation last season when Zach Ertz got injured, which thrust McBride into the TE1 role in Arizona. From that point on (Week 8-18), he finished as the PPR TE3.

McBride was Kyler Murray primary option in the passing game, earning a 25.9% target rate on the year, which led the position. He finished top 12 at his position in eight of his 10 weeks as a starter, speaking to his consistency and high floor in this offense. The Marvin Harrison Jr. addition this season should keep McBride from being the top target in Arizona every week, but even as the second option in the passing game, there is plenty of opportunity for McBride to be productive enough. Top-five at his position won’t be difficult to accomplish as long as he’s healthy. 

Round 5: WR Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns

Cooper is currently being drafted as the 29th wide receiver off the board, according to Sleeper’s ADP, which makes for an incredible bargain for a player who has finished no worse than the PPR WR18 in five of the last six seasons. Only in 2021, his final season with the Dallas Cowboys, did he miss that mark (WR27), as he also missed multiple games that season. In 2023, even with the instability at the quarterback position, Cooper still finished the year as the PPR WR16 overall, which is far from where he’s being drafted this season.

Cooper just turned 30 years old this offseason, which puts him on the older side for his position, but still stands to be the clear favorite for targets in the Browns offense. Cooper posted a minimum of 1,100 receiving yards in each of his two seasons with the team – both of which were without the team’s top quarterback Deshaun Watson for the majority of those seasons. Cooper’s current cost in drafts makes him a potential value, and one of the safest fantasy bets you can make this season. There is little concern about the risk of him disappointing at that cost after he’s proven he can overcome the situation around him and put up solid and consistent fantasy production year after year.

Amari Cooper since joining the Browns (2022):

Round 6: TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars

One more tight end to round out this list of safe bets, Engram led his team and the position in total targets (140), en route to a PPR TE4 finish last season. Engram once again figures to be a significant part of the Jaguars offense, and arguably even more so this year than he was in 2023, with Calvin Ridley departing in free agency. Ridley commanded the second-most targets on the team last season (132), but more importantly, dominated the team’s red zone targets with 25 – tied for the third-most in the league, and 15 more than Engram himself.

It stands to reason that Engram will absorb some of those high-value red zone targets that Ridley commanded in 2023, which should help him deliver more than the four receiving touchdowns he scored last year. Even without the elite touchdown production, Engram’s involvement in the Jacksonville offense was so consistent that he never finished worse than TE26 in PPR on any given week, while finishing top-10 at the position 11 times across 17 games. Engram’s role in Jacksonville should once again be a significant one, with arguably more room to grow, making him the safest target in Round 6 of fantasy drafts in 2024.