The PFF Fantasy consensus top-200 PPR rankings dropped earlier this week. On second glance at the rankings from all of my colleagues, I realized I was the only staffer who had Arizona Cardinals RB David Johnson ranked No. 1 over Pittsburgh’s Le’Veon Bell.
Although I was surprised to find myself as the lone wolf in the Johnson pack, this realization allowed me to dig deeper on how I came to this conclusion. Below, I’ll make the argument for Johnson over Bell in your PPR leagues.
Passing game volume
In 2016, Johnson and Bell were the focal points of their respective offenses. Both players were targeted on nearly 22 percent of their snaps in route and both still managed to finish in the top five in yards per route run, with Johnson slightly edging Bell — 1.73 to 1.58 YPRR. This could change for Bell in 2017 now that Martavis Bryant is back in the mix. In the six games during the 2015 season that Bell played in with Bryant, he was targeted on just 18 percent of his snaps in route and finished with a meager 0.99 yards per route run. A four-percent decrease in volume alone could have a massive impact on Bell’s PPR value.
Cardinals revival
The Cardinals somewhat collapsed as an offense and team after entering 2016 with high expectations on both fronts. Injuries played a massive role, with both Evan Mathis and Jared Veldheer going down for extended periods of time. Their replacements — John Wetzel and Earl Watford — graded out poorly. The Cardinals have replaced both players. D.J. Humphries takes over as his natural left tackle position, Veldheer is healthy and back at right tackle, and they have a healthy competition at the vacant guard spot. If the Cardinals offense returns to their 2015 form, Johnson’s high-volume role gives him the opportunity to rack up one of the best RB seasons in fantasy history.
Usage
Bell finished with 336 touches in 12 games while Johnson finished with 373 in 16. In 2017, that could flip now that the Steelers have a legitimate No. 2 threat in Bryant and James Conner. If the Steelers don’t re-sign Bell long term, and it’s trending in that direction, it may have an impact on his overall usage. Cardinals HC Bruce Arians called Johnson too young to be overused and said the goal is for him to rack up at least 30 touches per game and at least 1,000 yards receiving. Johnson averaged 25.8 combined touches per game and that number could rise next season.
Non-football concerns
Bell’s injury history includes an MCL injury that cost him the final 10 games of his 2015 season and a hyperextended knee injury that cut his 2014 season short. In addition to the recent injury history, Bell has a substance-related suspension under his belt and he has currently skipped all team offseason activities in hope of a new contract. These aren’t major concerns, but when compared to Johnson’s squeaky clean history could be a mark against him.
Conclusion
You can’t go wrong here. That said, Johnson is the younger back and profiles as a guy with a more guaranteed high-usage rate, on an offense that is set to enter 2017 with a much healthier and more talented offensive line. Johnson offers a higher ceiling and floor.
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