I’m going to very confidently make a claim: It is impossible for every single weapon in the Patriots offense to have the sort of fantasy value that would validate their current rankings and their ADPs.
Earlier this week several members of the PFF Fantasy team put together consensus rankings and a variety of philosophies and points of views emerged. Surprisingly to me, I was the lowest on most the Patriots players — Brandin Cooks (38), Mike Gillislee (88), and James White (118). And here’s why.
Tom Brady will average 24 completions per game
Brady averaged 24.25 completions per game last season. He averaged 24.23 completions per game over the last three seasons and 23.74 completions per game over the last 10 years. Any way you slice it, he consistently puts up the same numbers.
Over the last three seasons Rob Gronkowski averaged 4.71 catches per game. Gronkowski will come into this season healthy, and there is no reason to project a drop in usage. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Could he get broken? Sure. But until then, you can’t project a drop in game-to-game usage.
Julian Edelman averaged 6.44 catches per game over the last three years. Before Edelman, Wes Welker averaged 6.97 catches per game from 2010 to 2012. That role is integral to the Patriots offense and will remain a key component going into 2017.
Once Edelman and Gronkowski’s target shares are accounted for, that leaves approximately 13 completions for the rest of the team. That’s it. Bill Belichick loves balance and specific opponent-centric game plans and he will use a variety of targets, like he does every year. Last year seven receivers caught at least 20 passes: Edelman (98), James White (60), Martellus Bennett (55), Chris Hogan (38), Malcolm Mitchell (32), Gronkowski (25), Danny Amendola (23).
At the wide receiver position, the team added Cooks. He averaged just over five catches per game over the first three years of his career in the pass-heavy Saints offense. He’s going to operate as a dependable deep threat and help the Patriots take the lid off their already-potent offense. In 2016, Cooks caught 11 targets of 20 yards or more, with those passes accounting for 544 yards and four touchdowns. My rankings reflect that although I believe the deep passing usage will stay about the same; it’s the short-field yardage that will have a significant decrease. He is still a top-25 wideout in PPR leagues, but toward the bottom of that tier. In standard leagues, I would have him higher.
No one will be LeGarrette Blount and the Patriots will return to the “hot hand” approach
Last season, Blount carried the ball 299 times for 1,161 yards and 18 touchdowns. That was by far the most work he’s ever had in his career. He never had more than 165 carries in his three other years with the Patriots.
Over the last 10 seasons, the Patriots supported three 1,000-yard rushing performances. Last year Blount was one. In 2012, Stevan Ridley hit that milestone out of the park and put up 1,263 yards. And then in 2010, BenJarvus Green-Ellis eked out 1,008 yards. Every other season (70 percent of the time) three to five running backs put up between 200 and 700 yards apiece.
When you look at the depth of this roster at the running back position, it seems to set up for one of those egalitarian backfields that will frustrate fantasy players week in and week out. The team boasts Gillislee, White, Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, and Brandon Bolden. Last year in Buffalo, Gillislee had a nose for the end zone, scoring eight rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown on 110 touches. He also posted the eighth-best elusive rating in the league among running backs who had at least 25 percent of their team’s attempts because he forced 19 total missed tackles. I would have a tremendous amount of confidence in Gillislee, the player. My rankings were simply a reflection of a crowded backfield filled to the brim with talent that Bill Belichick will game plan around. And every week will look different. That’s great for the Patriots. That’s terrible for fantasy players.
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