It has become cliché to start any strength-of-schedule analysis with a sheepish qualification. Along with the McRib and the search function on GamePass, the fantasy industry’s blood pressure problem can be blamed on the many grains of salt we’ve taken just so we can begin to discuss schedule strength.
Projecting how a defense performs is not materially different than forecasting an offense. We pay more attention to offensive players as a fantasy community, and theoretically should be more accurate as a result. Yet, the most common complaints about strength-of-schedule analysis — “unforeseeable” injuries and performance fluctuations — apply to offensive projections as well.
Nobody in the industry claims strength-of-schedule forecasts are more than a piece of the puzzle. Responsible analysts recognize its limits, and how strength-of-schedule becomes increasingly accurate once regular-season games begin. Speaking in terms of probability — which is all projecting fantasy performance is — we have enough information to at least get us in the ballpark for most teams.
At this point, nobody can say with certainty if the Buccaneers or Titans will be the rougher opponent for passers. However, we have a good idea about which of the Broncos or Browns will be an advantageous draw. By focusing primarily on the extremes of which defenses will be tough or easy matchups, we come away with actionable information for quarterback streaming enthusiasts, best-ball participants, two-QB league players, and even for traditional fantasy leaguers.
As always, we will work off the schedule grid below. Red indicates the toughest matchups, followed by orange. Dark green marks the easiest opponents, followed by light green. Yellow and white are neutral matchups, with yellow shading a bit more difficult – although the differences are fungible. Colors were assigned only partly by schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed in 2016. Equal weighting was given to offseason player and coach movement, win total forecasts, PFF grading, and known offensive approaches (the “keep-away” Cowboys, for example).
Throughout the week, we will leverage strength-of-schedule to help us choose ideal passer pairings, find an underrated “Skeleton Key” whose schedule meshes well with those of most other quarterbacks, anticipate suitable bye-week fill-ins, identify which passers have the best and worst early-season slates, and even throw a dart at some fantasy playoff prognostications. The last one is mostly for entertainment purposes … so take those with one of those grains of salt I mentioned earlier.
Let’s kick things off with some initial impressions and the strength-of-schedule grid.
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Initial thoughts
The NFC East has been a source of juicy matchups in recent seasons, but this year appears different. They face the eight teams from the West divisions, five of which qualify as red or orange matchups, and only one — the 49ers — landing in either shade of green. Carson Wentz has a particularly tough road, with two games against the Giants defense, a trip to Carolina, and one of his rare neutral matchups (Dallas) falls during the fantasy-irrelevant Week 17. Dak Prescott has a similarly treacherous road — especially early and late.
Cam Newton looks to have a favorable draw, with the majority of his tougher non-division opponents coming at home. The Patriots are his only dicey non-division road game — the Bills, Eagles, Dolphins, Vikings, and Packers all play in Carolina — and other than the Vikings, none are particularly daunting. Throw in a mostly soft divisional schedule and road games in Chicago, Detroit, New York (Jets), and San Francisco, and Newton is staring at a smooth road.
The NFC South faces the NFC North and AFC East. The Vikings and Patriots are tough matchups, but the rest don’t appear to be worth worrying about. Drew Brees starts out with his three hardest opponents (at Vikings, vs. Patriots, at Panthers), but it’s mostly smooth sailing from there. Jameis Winston has a worse draw, as he gets the Giants and Cardinals while the Saints play the Rams and Redskins. However, the second half of the season looks accommodative for Winston and company.
The Texans offense is fortunate not to have to face their defense, but whoever starts the season behind center is still in for a rude awakening. Tom Savage or Deshaun Watson kicks off against the Jaguars, at the Bengals and Patriots, and then the Titans and Chiefs visit before a Cleveland reprieve and a bye week. The Seahawks welcome them back to action in Week 8. An early look at Houston’s schedule doesn’t find two easy games in a row all season.
The AFC South draws the NFC West and AFC North, which is particularly bad news for Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota. They already have two games each against the upper-echelon defenses of the Texans and Jaguars, and this year their intra-divisional slate isn’t attractive. The Colts also play the Broncos and Bills, while the Titans get a better draw against the Raiders and Dolphins. We are a long way from recent seasons when AFC South teams played cupcake after cupcake.
The AFC East matches up with the NFC South (mostly good) and AFC West (mostly bad). Tom Brady faces only one division opponent through Week 11. He also plays at Pittsburgh and against Houston, so the Patriots’ supposed road to an undefeated season won’t be easy. Ryan Tannehill has an smoother start – facing the Jets twice helps – but also a brutal schedule after Week 7, featuring the Ravens, Raiders, Panthers, Patriots, Broncos, Patriots again, Bills, and Chiefs. Divest of Dolphins before they turn into a pumpkin for Halloween.
Jared Goff starts off nicely with the Colts and Redskins at home, and the 49ers and Cowboys on the road. Fantasy owners will then want to head for the hills. The Seahawks, Jaguars, Cardinals, Giants, Texans, and Vikings are next. After a brief interlude at home against the Saints, Goff finishes with a mostly tough four-game run through the fantasy playoffs. Assuming you’re brave enough to take the plunge in the first place, be prepared to sell off your Rams after the first month.
Derek Carr also begins with a few light games (at Titans, Jets at home, and at Washington) before things get ugly. Six division games are brutal for all AFC West passers, but Oakland’s defense is the least daunting and Carr won’t face them. Throw in matchups against the Ravens, Patriots and Giants, and Carr could struggle to take another positive step despite sky-high expectations. Conversely, the Broncos and Chargers look like they have easier late-season roads than the Raiders do.
The NFC North matches up with the NFC South and AFC North, which works out well considering their general lack of dominant defenses. Sam Bradford appears to have one of the league’s easier schedules, as he also faces the Rams at home and the Redskins on the road. One of the Bears’ toughest games (at the Vikings) fortunately comes in Week 17, and they also square off with the 49ers at home and the Eagles on the road. Not a bad slate for whoever their quarterback is.
Passers who, sadly, won’t have one of their easiest matchups count in most seasonal fantasy formats include Matthew Stafford (vs. Green Bay), Aaron Rodgers (at Detroit), Deshaun Watson/Tom Savage (at Indianapolis), Jared Goff (vs. San Francisco), Tom Brady (vs. New York Jets), Eli Manning (vs. Washington), Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Cleveland), and Jameis Winston (vs. New Orleans).
Quarterbacks who have one of their toughest matchups fall during the fantasy-irrelevant Week 17 include Carson Palmer (at Seattle), Matt Ryan (vs. Carolina), Mitchell Trubisky/Mike Glennon (at Minnesota), Paxton Lynch/Trevor Siemian (vs. Kansas City), Andrew Luck (vs. Houston), Alex Smith (at Denver), QB Jets (at New England), Derek Carr (at Los Angeles Chargers), Russell Wilson (vs. Arizona), Marcus Mariota (vs. Jacksonville), and Kirk Cousins (at New York Giants).
Key months in the schedule
Some players have easy first months of the season that might make them look strong to start the season and make for a good trade candidate. Others have brutal first months, perhaps making them October buy-lows. And then there's the fantasy playoff schedule, where things are a bit more guesswork this time of year, but we can still have an idea of which quarterbacks have the toughest playoff schedules.
Navigating the bye weeks
Without some planning ahead, a bye week can really hurt a fantasy team, leaving you scrounging for scraps on the waiver wire. But use this guide through the bye weeks to plan ahead and pick up someone before you need them to mitigate the impact of the bye week.
Perfect pairings
Maybe you want to draft a pair of quarterbacks and play the matchups. Here's a look at the best schedule pairing for each quarterback all season long, including the single best duo for the season based on schedule, and the quarterback who matches up the best with the most different other QBs.
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