Projecting rookie running back fantasy performance with comparable players

Over the past couple weeks, I used statistically comparable historical players to project NFL value, as measured by our proprietary wins above replacement metric (WAR), for early– and mid-round wide receivers and running backs. In this article, I’m going to apply that matching analysis with the projections focused on fantasy value.

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The matching methodology is largely similar to the prior articles, but now we have the actual NFL draft positions for all prospects, and I’m expanding the comparable players listed below to 10 from five. Above the individual player comps, I’ve included a plot with the running backs and the average number of top-6, top-12 and top-24 fantasy weeks (PPR) for the player’s comps over the first two seasons of their careers. These projections give us a broad perspective on fantasy production for each player, along with the ability to compare across the 2020 class. You can marry these projections with the opportunity scores for first-round and Day 2 running backs to determine a good estimate for career production.

METHODOLOGY

The comps below were derived from a two-step process. First, I used player age (as of Sept. 1, 2020) and draft position as filters, then used the rest of the matching features in principle component analysis (PCA). I found the closest statistically comparable players by euclidean distance between the players' principle components and then gave each a “Similarity” score based on percentile of distance.

The filters for age and draft position are plus/minus 1.5 years and one round, respectively. The metrics for PCA are: weight, 40-yard dash, rushing attempts per game, rushing yards per game, receptions per game, receiving yards per game, and market share of team rushing yards. The comparable player tables for each prospect also include the number of top-12 fantasy weeks for each over the first two years of his career.

For missing Combine 40-yard dash times, I filled the values with Pro Day times plus a 0.1-second penalty, or estimated using weight and other measurables. The final values for projected top fantasy weeks are weighted by the similarity between the comparable player and prospect.

Top-Drafted Running Backs

The first running back chosen in the NFL draft, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, is also the best projected back according to comparable players. Edwards-Helaire brings strong rushing and receiving production, plus a first-round draft pedigree. Jonathan Taylor’s comps were probably the most disappointing, especially considering that he was a favorite among fantasy drafters going into the NFL draft. Taylor's lack of receiving production in college makes him most comparable to one-dimensional running backs who didn’t provide a ton of early-career value.

PICK 32: CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Similarity	Draft Year	Player	College	Draft Pos	Age	Weight	Forty	RuAtt/Gm	RuYds/Gm	Rec/Gm	RecYds/Gm	MS RuYds	Top-12
100%	2020	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	32	21.4	207	4.60	14.3	94.6	3.7	30.2	62.0%	N/A
98%	2007	Marshawn Lynch	California	12	21.4	215	4.52	17.2	104.3	2.6	25.2	63.9%	10
96%	2009	Knowshon Moreno	Georgia	12	22.1	217	4.62	19.2	107.7	2.5	30.2	71.8%	9
94%	2012	Isaiah Pead	Cincinnati	50	22.7	197	4.47	18.2	96.9	3.0	24.5	53.8%	0
92%	2007	Brandon Jackson	Nebraska	63	21.9	210	4.55	13.4	70.6	2.4	22.4	41.7%	0
90%	2017	Joe Mixon	Oklahoma	48	21.1	228	4.55	15.3	105.1	3.0	44.3	43.1%	8
88%	2006	Reggie Bush	USC	2	21.5	201	4.47	15.4	133.9	2.9	36.8	51.3%	14
86%	2009	LeSean McCoy	Pittsburgh	53	21.1	204	4.60	23.7	114.5	2.5	23.5	80.6%	9
84%	2017	Dalvin Cook	Florida St	41	22.1	210	4.49	22.2	135.6	2.5	36.8	63.4%	5
82%	2013	Giovani Bernard	North Carolina	37	21.8	202	4.53	18.4	122.8	4.7	49.0	62.5%	11
80%	2011	Shane Vereen	California	56	22.6	210	4.55	19.3	97.3	1.8	17.4	58.7%	1

PICK 35: D’ANDRE SWIFT, DETROIT LIONS

Similarity	Draft Year	Player	College	Draft Pos	Age	Weight	Forty	RuAtt/Gm	RuYds/Gm	Rec/Gm	RecYds/Gm	MS RuYds	Top-12
100%	2020	D'Andre Swift	Georgia	35	21.6	212	4.48	14.1	87.1	1.7	15.4	46.4%	N/A
98%	2011	Shane Vereen	California	56	22.6	210	4.55	19.3	97.3	1.8	17.4	58.7%	1
96%	2007	Brandon Jackson	Nebraska	63	21.9	210	4.55	13.4	70.6	2.4	22.4	41.7%	0
94%	2008	Felix Jones	Arkansas	22	21.3	207	4.47	10.2	89.4	1.2	13.5	30.8%	1
92%	2018	Derrius Guice	LSU	59	21.2	224	4.49	19.8	104.6	1.5	10.3	48.6%	1
90%	2010	Ben Tate	Auburn	58	22.0	220	4.43	20.2	104.8	1.5	8.1	51.5%	1
88%	2007	Marshawn Lynch	California	12	21.4	215	4.52	17.2	104.3	2.6	25.2	63.9%	10
86%	2012	David Wilson	Virginia Tech	32	21.2	206	4.49	20.7	122.1	1.6	9.2	64.9%	1
84%	2015	Ameer Abdullah	Nebraska	54	22.2	205	4.60	20.3	123.9	1.7	20.7	51.2%	1
82%	2010	Jahvid Best	California	30	21.6	199	4.35	15.7	96.3	2.4	23.7	51.5%	5
78%	2016	Ezekiel Elliott	Ohio St	4	21.1	225	4.47	22.2	140.1	2.1	15.9	56.2%	17

PICK 41: JONATHAN TAYLOR, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Similarity	Draft Year	Player	College	Draft Pos	Age	Weight	Forty	RuAtt/Gm	RuYds/Gm	Rec/Gm	RecYds/Gm	MS RuYds	Top-12
100%	2020	Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	41	21.6	226	4.39	22.9	143.0	1.9	17.4	61.1%	N/A
98%	2008	Jonathan Stewart	Oregon	13	21.4	235	4.48	21.5	132.5	1.7	11.2	51.6%	8
96%	2018	Rashaad Penny	San Diego St	27	22.6	220	4.46	22.2	171.6	1.4	10.1	67.4%	2
94%	2010	Ben Tate	Auburn	58	22.0	220	4.43	20.2	104.8	1.5	8.1	51.5%	1
92%	2014	Bishop Sankey	Washington	54	22.0	209	4.49	25.2	143.9	2.2	23.4	59.9%	1
90%	2018	Derrius Guice	LSU	59	21.2	224	4.49	19.8	104.6	1.5	10.3	48.6%	1
88%	2018	Royce Freeman	Oregon Ducks	71	22.5	229	4.54	20.3	122.7	1.2	13.5	46.1%	1
86%	2015	Melvin Gordon III	Wisconsin	15	22.4	215	4.52	24.5	184.8	1.4	10.9	57.5%	8
84%	2012	Ronnie Hillman	San Diego St	67	21.0	200	4.45	23.9	131.6	1.9	20.8	70.9%	0
82%	2012	David Wilson	Virginia Tech	32	21.2	206	4.49	20.7	122.1	1.6	9.2	64.9%	1
80%	2015	Tevin Coleman	Indiana	73	22.4	206	4.50	22.5	169.7	2.1	11.8	64.2%	4

PICK 52: CAM AKERS, LOS ANGELES RAMS

Similarity	Draft Year	Player	College	Draft Pos	Age	Weight	Forty	RuAtt/Gm	RuYds/Gm	Rec/Gm	RecYds/Gm	MS RuYds	Top-12
100%	2020	Cam Akers	Florida St	52	21.2	217	4.47	21.0	103.8	2.7	19.8	77.2%	N/A
98%	2011	Shane Vereen	California	56	22.6	210	4.55	19.3	97.3	1.8	17.4	58.7%	1
96%	2012	Ronnie Hillman	San Diego St	67	21.0	200	4.45	23.9	131.6	1.9	20.8	70.9%	0
94%	2014	Bishop Sankey	Washington	54	22.0	209	4.49	25.2	143.9	2.2	23.4	59.9%	1
91%	2017	Dalvin Cook	Florida St	41	22.1	210	4.49	22.2	135.6	2.5	36.8	63.4%	5
89%	2009	LeSean McCoy	Pittsburgh	53	21.1	204	4.60	23.7	114.5	2.5	23.5	80.6%	9
87%	2012	David Wilson	Virginia Tech	32	21.2	206	4.49	20.7	122.1	1.6	9.2	64.9%	1
85%	2015	Duke Johnson Jr.	Miami (FL)	77	21.9	207	4.54	18.6	127.1	2.9	32.4	68.4%	3
83%	2008	Rashard Mendenhall	Illinois	23	21.2	225	4.45	20.2	129.3	2.6	24.5	50.0%	6
80%	2018	Derrius Guice	LSU	59	21.2	224	4.49	19.8	104.6	1.5	10.3	48.6%	1
78%	2010	Ben Tate	Auburn	58	22.0	220	4.43	20.2	104.8	1.5	8.1	51.5%	1

PICK 55: J.K. DOBBINS, BALTIMORE RAVENS

Similarity	Draft Year	Player	College	Draft Pos	Age	Weight	Forty	RuAtt/Gm	RuYds/Gm	Rec/Gm	RecYds/Gm	MS RuYds	Top-12
100%	2020	J.K. Dobbins	Ohio St	55	21.7	209	4.66	21.5	143.1	1.6	17.6	54.8%	N/A
98%	2014	Bishop Sankey	Washington	54	22.0	209	4.49	25.2	143.9	2.2	23.4	59.9%	1
96%	2012	David Wilson	Virginia Tech	32	21.2	206	4.49	20.7	122.1	1.6	9.2	64.9%	1
94%	2012	LaMichael James	Oregon	61	22.9	194	4.45	20.6	150.4	1.4	17.5	50.1%	0
92%	2012	Ronnie Hillman	San Diego St	67	21.0	200	4.45	23.9	131.6	1.9	20.8	70.9%	0
90%	2015	Tevin Coleman	Indiana	73	22.4	206	4.50	22.5	169.7	2.1	11.8	64.2%	4
88%	2008	Jamaal Charles	Texas	73	21.7	200	4.38	19.9	124.5	1.3	15.3	59.5%	4
86%	2010	Ben Tate	Auburn	58	22.0	220	4.43	20.2	104.8	1.5	8.1	51.5%	1
84%	2014	Tre Mason	Auburn	75	21.1	207	4.50	22.6	129.7	0.9	11.6	39.3%	1
82%	2011	Shane Vereen	California	56	22.6	210	4.55	19.3	97.3	1.8	17.4	58.7%	1
80%	2018	Rashaad Penny	San Diego St	27	22.6	220	4.46	22.2	171.6	1.4	10.1	67.4%	2

OTHER RUNNINGS BACKS DRAFTED IN THE EARLY ROUNDS

Zack Moss is the surprise best-projected running back in the group of later-second and third-round running backs. Ke’Shawn Vaughn is the biggest disappointment, though he joins an ideal situation with Tom Brady and little competition on the roster.

PICK 62: A.J. DILLON, GREEN BAY PACKERS

Similarity	Draft Year	Player	College	Draft Pos	Age	Weight	Forty	RuAtt/Gm	RuYds/Gm	Rec/Gm	RecYds/Gm	MS RuYds	Top-12
100%	2020	A.J. Dillon	Boston College	62	22.3	247	4.53	26.4	141.6	1.1	16.3	53.8%	NA
98%	2010	Toby Gerhart	Stanford	51	23.4	231	4.60	26.4	143.9	0.9	12.1	65.6%	3
97%	2018	Royce Freeman	Oregon Ducks	71	22.5	229	4.54	20.3	122.7	1.2	13.5	46.1%	1
95%	2016	Derrick Henry	Alabama	45	22.1	247	4.54	26.3	147.9	0.7	6.1	73.6%	3
93%	2011	Mikel Leshoure	Illinois	57	21.7	227	4.65	21.6	130.5	1.3	15.1	52.8%	4
92%	2014	Carlos Hyde	Ohio St	57	22.9	230	4.66	18.9	138.3	1.5	13.4	45.0%	1
90%	2010	Montario Hardesty	Tennessee	59	23.6	225	4.49	21.7	103.5	1.9	23.2	65.8%	1
88%	2018	Derrius Guice	LSU Tigers	59	21.2	224	4.49	19.8	104.6	1.5	10.3	48.6%	1
86%	2012	Doug Martin	Boise St	31	23.6	223	4.55	20.2	99.9	2.2	19.6	57.7%	7
85%	2014	Jeremy Hill	LSU	55	21.9	233	4.66	16.9	116.8	1.5	15.1	56.9%	6
83%	2010	Ben Tate	Auburn	58	22.0	220	4.43	20.2	104.8	1.5	8.1	51.5%	1

PICK 76: KE’SHAWN VAUGHN, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Similarity	Draft Year	Player	College	Draft Pos	Age	Weight	Forty	RuAtt/Gm	RuYds/Gm	Rec/Gm	RecYds/Gm	MS RuYds	Top-12
100%	2020	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	Vanderbilt	76	23.3	214	4.51	16.6	85.7	2.4	23.8	65.2%	NA
98%	2011	Shane Vereen	California	56	22.6	210	4.55	19.3	97.3	1.8	17.4	58.7%	1
96%	2016	C.J. Prosise	Notre Dame	90	22.3	220	4.48	15.7	102.9	2.6	30.8	48.7%	1
94%	2007	Brandon Jackson	Nebraska	63	21.9	210	4.55	13.4	70.6	2.4	22.4	41.7%	0
92%	2010	Montario Hardesty	Tennessee	59	23.6	225	4.49	21.7	103.5	1.9	23.2	65.8%	1
90%	2014	Charles Sims	West Virginia	69	24.0	214	4.48	17.3	91.3	3.8	33.4	60.9%	1
88%	2015	Duke Johnson Jr.	Miami (FL)	77	21.9	207	4.54	18.6	127.1	2.9	32.4	68.4%	3
86%	2012	Isaiah Pead	Cincinnati	50	22.7	197	4.47	18.2	96.9	3.0	24.5	53.8%	0
84%	2017	Kareem Hunt	Toledo	86	22.1	216	4.62	20.0	112.5	3.2	31.0	57.1%	12
82%	2015	Ameer Abdullah	Nebraska	54	22.2	205	4.60	20.3	123.9	1.7	20.7	51.2%	1
80%	2011	Alex Green	Hawaii	96	23.2	225	4.55	10.4	85.6	1.9	25.9	74.8%	0

PICK 86: ZACK MOSS, BUFFALO BILLS

Similarity	Draft Year	Player	College	Draft Pos	Age	Weight	Forty	RuAtt/Gm	RuYds/Gm	Rec/Gm	RecYds/Gm	MS RuYds	Top-12
100%	2020	Zack Moss	Utah Utes	86	22.7	223	4.65	18.0	108.6	2.2	29.8	55.4%	NA
98%	2017	Kareem Hunt	Toledo	86	22.1	216	4.62	20.0	112.5	3.2	31.0	57.1%	12
97%	2007	Dwayne Wright	Fresno St	111	24.2	228	4.73	21.8	121.8	2.4	18.4	67.6%	0
95%	2017	James Conner	Pittsburgh	105	22.3	233	4.65	16.7	84.5	1.6	23.2	40.7%	7
93%	2016	C.J. Prosise	Notre Dame	90	22.3	220	4.48	15.7	102.9	2.6	30.8	48.7%	1
91%	2011	Daniel Thomas	Kansas St	62	23.9	230	4.72	22.9	121.9	2.1	13.2	60.8%	1
90%	2015	Duke Johnson Jr.	Miami (FL)	77	21.9	207	4.54	18.6	127.1	2.9	32.4	68.4%	3
88%	2015	Ameer Abdullah	Nebraska	54	22.2	205	4.60	20.3	123.9	1.7	20.7	51.2%	1
86%	2011	Shane Vereen	California	56	22.6	210	4.55	19.3	97.3	1.8	17.4	58.7%	1
85%	2014	Jeremy Hill	LSU	55	21.9	233	4.66	16.9	116.8	1.5	15.1	56.9%	6
83%	2014	Carlos Hyde	Ohio St	57	22.9	230	4.66	18.9	138.3	1.5	13.4	45.0%	1

PICK 93: DARRYNTON EVANS, TENNESSEE TITANS

Similarity	Draft Year	Player	College	Draft Pos	Age	Weight	Forty	RuAtt/Gm	RuYds/Gm	Rec/Gm	RecYds/Gm	MS RuYds	Top-12
100%	2020	Darrynton Evans	Appalachian St	93	22.1	203	4.41	18.3	106.0	1.5	14.1	48.0%	NA
98%	2007	Antonio Pittman	Ohio St	107	21.7	207	4.44	18.6	94.9	1.1	9.8	55.3%	0
96%	2018	Nyheim Hines	North Carolina St	104	21.8	198	4.38	15.1	85.5	2.0	11.7	47.6%	1
93%	2008	Jamaal Charles	Texas	73	21.7	200	4.38	19.9	124.5	1.3	15.3	59.5%	4
91%	2010	Joe McKnight	USC	112	22.4	198	4.47	13.7	84.5	1.8	12.2	50.0%	1
89%	2012	LaMichael James	Oregon	61	22.9	194	4.45	20.6	150.4	1.4	17.5	50.1%	0
87%	2014	Tre Mason	Auburn	75	21.1	207	4.50	22.6	129.7	0.9	11.6	39.3%	1
84%	2012	Lamar Miller	Miami (FL)	97	21.4	212	4.40	18.9	106.0	1.4	7.1	72.6%	1
82%	2012	Robert Turbin	Utah St	106	22.7	222	4.50	19.2	116.7	1.3	13.2	41.0%	0
80%	2006	Jerious Norwood	Mississippi St	79	23.1	210	4.33	17.4	103.3	1.7	8.7	74.1%	1
78%	2009	Glen Coffee	Alabama	74	22.3	209	4.58	16.6	98.8	1.1	8.4	53.2%	1