• Puka Nacua is the ideal late first-round pick: Nacua had one of the best rookie wide receiver seasons ever. The only reason he isn’t higher is the other elite wide receivers have a longer history of success.
• Finding a quarterback is tricky: There aren’t many opportunities to pick a great quarterback at a good value with one of these picks, so don’t be afraid to strike even if the value is just okay.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF's fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated reading time: 14 minutes
The perfect draft series combines current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for 12-team PPR leagues for anyone picking 10th, 11th or 12th.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Friday, July 19
Round 1, Picks 10-12: Draft a running back or wide receiver
The people picking at the end of the first round have the most difficult decisions to make. Chances are the top three running backs and top six wide receivers are all off the board, but the top 15 picks are a little too early to consider the top quarterbacks or tight ends. This leaves running backs and wide receivers as the best options for both picks.
Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs are the top running back options while Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams are the best wide receivers. If Nacua is available, he should be selected. Outside of that, picking up two wide receivers or a wide receiver and a running back in any order should be fine.
Top Target: Puka Nacua
Nacua finished with the fourth-most fantasy points for all wide receivers last season, making it one of the best rookie seasons by a wide receiver of all time. His situation this year is very similar to last year with Sean McVay as his head coach, Matthew Stafford as his quarterback and Cooper Kupp as his primary competition. It is certainly possible that Nacua will have an even better sophomore season. Still, he has a one-year sample size of excellent play compared to the wide receivers selected ahead of him who have been clear elite options for multiple seasons.
Possible Targets: Garrett Wilson, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, Davante Adams
Round 2, Picks 13-15: Draft a running back or wide receiver
As mentioned in Round 1, drafting two wide receivers or a wide receiver and running back is a valid approach. Based on the value in other rounds, the consequences of picking back-to-back running backs would either be punting on a quarterback or having a weakness at wide receiver.
Top Target: Saquon Barkley
Barkley finished last year at RB9 thanks to his volume. He finished fourth in touches per game but finished below 4.0 yards per carry. He received little help from the New York Giants offensive line, which ranked third-worst in team run-blocking grade last season at 41.1. Nine offensive linemen played at least 250 snaps, and none had a run-blocking grade above 70.0. Now Barkley is with the Eagles, who have the second-best offensive line despite losing Jason Kelce.
Possible Targets: Garrett Wilson, Kyren Williams, Davante Adams, Chris Olave, Derrick Henry
Round 3, Picks 34-36: Draft a wide receiver or Lamar Jackson
Teams picking at the end will have a harder time landing a great quarterback. The top 15 picks are a little too early for Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes isn’t going to be around for this Round 3 pick. This is a little higher than Lamar Jackson’s ADP, but he is well worth the selection here to ensure this team has an elite quarterback. If for whatever reason Jackson is already gone, then it’s time to pivot to wide receiver.
Top Target: Lamar Jackson
Expectations were high for Jackson last season, and he lived up to the hype with an MVP season. He averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game making anyone who drafted Jackson last year happy with their decision. Now, Jackson will be in the second year of Todd Monken’s offense while still having Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers as his top targets. We should expect more of the same from Jackson this season.
Possible Targets: D.K. Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Stefon Diggs, DeVonta Smith, D.J. Moore
Round 4, Picks 37-39: Draft a wide receiver
Wide receiver is the safest option to start Round 4. The top quarterbacks and tight ends are likely gone, and any running back available at this point is either in a committee or not in an ideal situation for fantasy production. In most of these articles wide receiver is the safe pick for the third round, but there are still several wide receivers who fit the third-round wide receiver profile and are available at the start of the fourth round.
Top Target: D.K. Metcalf
Metcalf has been a top-16 fantasy wide receiver in three of the last four seasons. The one exception was last season where he had a slow start but was a top-10 fantasy wide receiver from Week 8 until the end of the season. There is reason for optimism this season with Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator. The Seahawks should be passing the ball a lot given Grubb’s history at Washington, and most importantly, they should run more plays. The Seattle Seahawks have run the fewest offensive plays in two of the last three seasons and have consistently been below average. A faster pace should help the fantasy production of everyone in the offense.
Possible Targets: Stefon Diggs, DeVonta Smith, Malik Nabers, Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper
Round 5, Picks 58-60: Draft a tight end
Round 5 is a sweet spot for adding a star tight end, which is why that position was ignored at the end of Round 2. The top tight ends available at this spot have either finished as top-six fantasy tight ends each of the last two seasons with the same quarterback and offensive play-caller or are young with a great opportunity to have a career year.
Top Target: George Kittle
On a per-play basis, Kittle has been roughly as good as Travis Kelce, but he plays for the San Francisco 49ers, who have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, while Kelce is with the Kansas City Chiefs, who are among the most pass-heavy. Brock Purdy playing quarterback has helped Kittle’s efficiency with more big plays and more touchdowns. Kittle was the only tight end last season to reach 1,000 yards, but he doesn’t get as many receptions as other great tight ends. Kittle has ranked top six in fantasy points per game for a tight end in each of the last six seasons, and it’s reasonable to expect him to extend that streak to seven seasons.
Possible Targets: Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, David Njoku, Jake Ferguson, Brock Bowers
Round 6, Picks 61-63: Draft a running back or Dak Prescott
Typically, this is the best time to add a second running back, but that depends on if a quarterback was selected. If not, then Dak Prescott should be around as a relatively safe option who still has a high ceiling. If a quarterback was taken, then it’s time to add another starting running back. The backs available here are mostly veterans, which generally aren’t as exciting to draft, but there is plenty of reason to expect these players can still be productive.
Top Target: Aaron Jones
Jones is tied for fifth in PFF offensive grade over the last three seasons at 90.7, but he’s been held back by the Green Bay Packers‘ running back committee. Jones only has eight rushing touchdowns over the last three years compared to the bigger A.J. Dillon‘s 14. He played over 60% of Green Bay's offensive snaps in half of games in 2021 and 2022, but that fell to just the final game of 2023 thanks to an injury-filled season.
In Minnesota, he will have minimal competition for snaps and touches compared to other running backs. Given how successful he’s been regardless of the situation, he is worth the risk at this point of the draft given he will be 30 by the end of the season and his recent injury history.
Possible Targets: Rhamondre Stevenson, Dak Prescott, David Montgomery, James Conner, Zamir White
Round 7, Picks 82-84: Draft a wide receiver
With a starting quarterback and tight end secured, the next several picks will be some combination of running back and wide receiver. When you have a top-six quarterback or tight end, you’re not benching them because a backup has a better matchup. That means a backup is only necessary in case of injuries, so you can draft more running backs and wide receivers before making lineup decisions based on matchups and who breaks out.
In this case, a wide receiver is best to pick because several proven players are in new situations this year. Ideally, the new situation allows them to outperform their ADP. If it doesn’t, then hopefully one of the several sleeper wide receivers picked later ends up breaking out.
Top Target: Diontae Johnson
Johnson finished as WR28 in 2022 while tied for sixth in targets with Kenny Pickett in his rookie season. He was traded to the Carolina Panthers, where he should be their X receiver and the team's clear leader in targets. Everything indicates we could be in store for a similar season to 2022 this year if Young can’t improve. If Young can improve, we could see a season like 2021 where he was the overall WR8.
Possible Targets: DeAndre Hopkins, Ladd McConkey, Jordan Addison, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Round 8, Picks 85-87: Draft a running back
At this point, this team should already have two running backs, but it’s time to pick up a third. There are a few running backs in two-player committees where either one has a chance to have a breakout season given their and their team's talent. The eighth round is the perfect time to pick up one of these running backs because once they are gone, any other running back is much more of a gamble.
Top Target: Tony Pollard
Pollard has the fourth-highest offensive grade for a running back over the last four seasons at 91.3, behind only Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Expectations were high last season after the Dallas Cowboys let go of Ezekiel Elliott. Unfortunately, it took time for him to recover from his leg injuries from the 2022 divisional playoff round. By Week 11, he was back to his former self. He was the highest-graded rusher from that point on, finishing as RB13. He was finally receiving the playing time he deserved but wasn’t getting the ball enough when he was on the field.
Now, he’s with the Tennessee Titans and competing for playing time with Tyjae Spears. The sophomore running back is also very talented, but given Pollard’s past production, he has a chance to be the lead back in the Joe Mixon role in Brian Callahan’s offense.
Possible Targets: Jaylen Warren, Zack Moss, Javonte Williams, Devin Singletary, Brian Robinson Jr.
Round 9, Picks 106-108: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Wide receiver is the best option here, but there is still an important decision to make. You can draft a proven veteran or one of the younger wide receivers in the league. Tyler Lockett or Courtland Sutton are very likely to beat their ADPs if they stay healthy, but they are unlikely to finish among the top 24 without some touchdown luck. The younger wide receivers are less likely to beat their ADP, but they have a higher chance of being an elite wide receiver this season. The right decision likely depends on how risky the previous wide receivers picked have been.
Top Target: Tyler Lockett
Lockett had been a consistent fantasy asset with four straight 1,000-yard and eight-plus touchdown seasons, but he gained fewer yards and caught fewer touchdowns last season at 31 years old. His decline was only in his statistics, as his PFF receiving grade was very consistent. He’s finished between 77-83 in each of the last six seasons. The Seahawks have a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb. While everyone is excited for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, ideally, Grubb will be able to take advantage of Lockett’s talent to keep him fantasy-relevant.
Possible Targets: Keon Coleman, Devin Singletary, Nick Chubb, Mike Williams, Jameson Williams
Round 10, Picks 109-111: Draft a wide receiver
The next four rounds are mostly about picking your guys. If your favorite sleeper quarterback or tight end is available, it’s OK to pick them, but I’d advise stocking up on even more running backs and wide receivers. A running back or wide receiver who somewhat exceeds expectations here would be in your starting lineup in a good matchup but even a quarterback or tight end who is picked here and has a good season won’t start over the star quarterback and tight end selected, regardless of the matchup.
Top Target: Keon Coleman
Coleman was selected with the first pick in the second round and could be the Bills' best outside wide receiver. He is a bigger wide receiver who is very athletic for his size, which helped him score 18 touchdowns over the last two seasons despite being held to under 800 receiving yards each season. The Bills lost four of their five top wide receivers from last season and only brought in Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins,
Buffalo has plenty of players who can make plays in the middle of the field, including wide receiver Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid, but Coleman should be the Bills' top outside wide receiver this season. The Bills were the best landing spot for any wide receiver in the draft given their loss of players, including Stefon Diggs and having an elite quarterback in Josh Allen. While Coleman is in a great position for 2024 compared to other rookie wide receivers, it wouldn’t be surprising for Buffalo to add other better options in future years, moving Coleman to second or third on the depth chart.
Possible Targets: Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams, Jameson Williams, Jakobi Meyers, Curtis Samuel
Round 11, Picks 130-132: Draft a running back
Top Target: Rico Dowdle
Dowdle hasn’t been given many opportunities in the NFL with less than 100 rushing attempts in his four-year NFL career. The only reason he’s worth considering is because of the Cowboys backfield. Given Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons‘ contract situations, the Cowboys' only noteworthy investment at running back was bringing back Ezekiel Elliott. The future Cowboys Ring of Honor member already has over 2,000 career rushing attempts, ranking in the top 40 all-time. Unless Dallas brings in another running back or someone lower on the depth chart breaks out in training camp, Dowdle will have significant volume at some point this season. In fantasy football, volume is more important than talent.
Possible Targets: Chuba Hubbard, Antonio Gibson, Tyler Allgeier, Ty Chandler, Jaleel McLaughlin
Round 12, Picks 133-135: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Top Target: Brandin Cooks
It took a few weeks for Cooks to start producing in the Dallas Cowboys offense last season, but he scored the 24th-most fantasy points for a wide receiver from Week 6 until the end of the season. As mentioned with CeeDee Lamb, the offense has lost some of its receiving production and didn’t bring in much to replace them, which should put more emphasis on the other Cowboys receivers. A lot of Cooks’ fantasy production came from touchdowns which is bound to regress, but three of his best four games in terms of targets and receptions came in the last three weeks of the season including the playoffs. If Cooks can continue that momentum into the 2024 season, he will be one of the biggest steals of the draft.
Possible Targets: Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle, Rashid Shaheed, Jerry Jeudy, Gabe Davis
Round 13, Picks 154-156: Draft a running back
Top Target: Chuba Hubbard
Hubbard was used in a variety of situations over his first two seasons, and his role increased significantly for the 2023 season, playing at least 64% of his team's offensive snaps in each of his last seven games. He finished at least RB28 or better in each of those games including two weeks as a top-12 running back.
The Panthers added Jonathon Brooks in the draft as the first running back selected, but he is coming off a torn ACL. A few weeks ago, it was reported that Brooks still has a ways to go in his recovery and will likely be eased into training camp. Hubbard has a decent chance to be the starter at least early in the season, and the Panthers shouldn’t rush Brooks. Hubbard is a great gamble this late in the draft as someone capable of being a feature back.
Possible Targets: Jaleel McLaughlin, Khalil Herbert, Bucky Irving, Ray Davis, Roschon Johnson
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
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