• Grab an elite wide receiver in the first round: Multiple wide receivers should be available in the middle of the first round to build a team around.
• Find an elite quarterback and tight end early: The middle of the draft is a sweet spot for finding value at both positions.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF's fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated reading time: 13 minutes
The perfect draft series combines current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for 10-team PPR leagues for anyone picking fourth, fifth, sixth or seventh.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Wednesday, July 24
Round 1, Picks 4-7: Draft a wide receiver
In most leagues, Christian McCaffrey and two wide receivers will be the first three picks, leaving three more top-five wide receivers to choose from. It’s too early to pick a quarterback or tight end and a little too early for Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall. The only debate here is which elite wide receivers to target. If you pick fourth, you will have options, but if you’re picking sixth, the decision is easy.
Top Target: Ja'Marr Chase (Player Profile)
Chase was WR5 as a rookie but has fallen just outside of the top-10 the last two seasons because he missed time due to injury in 2022 while Joe Burrow missed time in 2023. He’s ranked among the top six in fantasy points per game each season when only including games where Burrow is healthy. Chase should benefit this season from Tyler Boyd leaving the team, allowing Chase to line up in the slot more often. All of the other wide receivers with a top-five ADP have lined up in the slot significantly more than Chase these last three seasons, and it’s time for Chase to catch up.
Possible Targets: Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson
Round 2, Picks 14-17: Draft a wide receiver or running back
I will often advocate for a quarterback in the second round in 12-team leagues, but for 10-teamers, the top quarterbacks should fall to Round 3. This allows you to stick with the best running back or wide receiver available. Generally, there will be a little more value at running back, but it varies by pick.
Top Target: Kyren Williams
Williams scored the second-most fantasy points per game by a running back with a clear three-point lead over everyone else who wasn’t Christian McCaffrey. Part of that was due to a 90.5 run grade that ranked third-most among those with 50 or more carries. He also played at least 77% of the Los Angeles Rams‘ offensive snaps in all but three games, and at least 94% of their snaps in four games. Chances are Blake Corum will cut into his playing time a little bit to keep Williams well-rested, but he should remain the feature back for the Rams.
Possible Targets: Davante Adams, Derrick Henry, Chris Olave, Saquon Barkley, Isiah Pacheco
Round 3, Picks 24-27: Draft a quarterback
It’s important to add an elite quarterback, even in a 10-team league. While there are 10 quarterbacks who each team can draft and feel comfortable with, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts have been consistently great the past three seasons. As such, there is an edge to having one of them thanks to their talents as both passers and rushers.
Top Target: Josh Allen
Allen has finished as a top-two fantasy quarterback in each of the last four seasons. He’s the third-highest-graded passer and has the third-most rushing attempts in that time. He is the only quarterback who is elite at both passing, elite at rushing and runs a lot. There is an obvious risk with the Stefon Diggs loss but the Buffalo Bills general recharge means they will need to depend more heavily on Allen, which should allow his fantasy production to remain high.
Possible Targets: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow
Round 4, Picks 34-37: Draft a running back or wide receiver
There will be no need for a quarterback the rest of the draft, and there isn’t any tight end that is a value at this point, as everyone available here should be around for the next round. This leaves a running back or wide receiver. There are quality players at both positions, and there are options at both in the next few rounds to work around whoever is picked here. Over the next four rounds, it would be good to land two wide receivers, a running back and a tight end, so it just depends if there is a particular player out of the best ones you like here. I slightly lean toward D.K. Metcalf.
Top Target: D.K. Metcalf (Player Profile)
Metcalf has been a top-16 fantasy wide receiver in three of the last four seasons. The one exception was last season where he had a slow start but was a top-10 fantasy wide receiver from Week 8 until the end of the season. There is reason for optimism this season with Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator. The Seahawks should be passing the ball a lot given Grubb’s history at Washington, and most importantly, they should run more plays. The Seattle Seahawks have run the fewest offensive plays in two of the last three seasons and have consistently been below average. A faster pace should help the fantasy production of everyone in the offense.
Possible Targets: James Cook, Joe Mixon, Michael Pittman Jr., DeVonta Smith, D.J. Moore
Round 5, Picks 44-47: Draft a tight end or Malik Nabers
This is the first of two opportunities to draft a tight end. George Kittle and Kyle Pitts should both be around in the sixth round, but the value is high to land Trey McBride here. There isn’t a great running back option here, and after drafting a second wide receiver in the fourth round, it’s fine to add a tight end with overall TE1 potential here.
Top Target: Trey McBride (Player Profile)
McBride was the clear top tight end of the 2022 draft class. He had a slow start to his career, but he was competing with veteran Zach Ertz and rarely got to play with Kyler Murray until late last season. In 2022, Murray and Ertz both barely played in the second half of the season due to injury. In 2023, Murray didn’t return to the starting role until Week 10. McBride’s fantasy production per game increased to 14.9 points per game with Murray. No tight end averaged that many points per game over the entire season last year.
Possible Targets: Mark Andrews, Malik Nabers, Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts
Round 6, Picks 54-57: Draft a tight end or running back
This is the last opportunity to pick a quality tight end if you passed on one in the first five rounds. Assuming you have a tight end, the value at this point of the draft is running back. Several players are expected to at least be early down backs. They likely have something capping their upside but should still be fantasy starters more often than not.
Top Target: Aaron Jones (Player Profile)
Jones is tied for fifth in PFF offensive grade over the last three seasons at 90.7, but he’s been held back by the Green Bay Packers‘ running back committee. Jones only has eight rushing touchdowns over the last three years compared to the bigger A.J. Dillon‘s 14. He played over 60% of Green Bay's offensive snaps in half of games in 2021 and 2022, but that fell to just the final game of 2023 thanks to an injury-filled season.
In Minnesota, he will have minimal competition for snaps and touches compared to other running backs. Given how successful he’s been regardless of the situation, he is worth the risk at this point of the draft given he will be 30 by the end of the season and his recent injury history.
Possible Targets: George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, James Conner, David Montgomery, Zamir White
Round 7, Picks 64-67: Draft a running back or wide receiver
This is simply the time to pick a third wide receiver or second running back depending on how the first six rounds went. There are plenty of clear starting wide receivers with long histories of being a fantasy starter as well as running backs who are slated to be early down backs available at this pick.
Top Target: Terry McLaurin (Player Profile)
McLaurin is the perfect example of a good, dependable wide receiver. He hasn’t missed a game over the last three seasons after missing just three games in his first two. He’s caught at least 77 passes and racked up 1,000-plus yards in each of the last four years. Even though the Washington Commanders have gone through a lot of changes this offseason, we can expect a lot more of the same for McLaurin.
Possible Targets: Keenan Allen, James Conner, Zamir White, Rhamondre Stevenson, Chris Godwin
Round 8, Picks 74-77: Draft a wide receiver
With a top-six quarterback and tight end secured, the next several picks will be some combination of running back and wide receiver. When you have a top-six quarterback or tight end, you’re not benching them because a backup has a better matchup. That means a backup is only necessary in case of injuries, so you can draft more running backs and wide receivers before making lineup decisions based on matchups and who breaks out.
In this case, a wide receiver is best to pick because several proven players are in new situations this year. Ideally, the new situation allows them to outperform their ADP. If it doesn’t, then hopefully one of the several sleeper wide receivers picked later ends up breaking out.
Top Target: Chris Godwin
Godwin was a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in both 2021 and 2022, but his health was a concern in 2023, so they kept him as an outside receiver rather than his traditional role of moving to the slot in three-receiver sets. On top of being healthy and his ideal role, he gains Liam Coen as an offensive coordinator. Coen worked with Cooper Kupp as an assistant wide receivers coach in 2018 and 2019 and then was the offensive coordinator in 2022, when Kupp led all wide receivers in fantasy points per game at 22.4. Godwin has excellent potential in the middle rounds of the draft.
Possible Targets: Diontae Johnson, Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Ladd McConkey, Rashee Rice
Round 9, Picks 84-87: Draft a running back
There is a tier of running backs where there is no clear and obvious starter on the team, but it’s a situation where there are multiple talented running backs on the team, and someone is capable of emerging as a starter player. Once running backs in that tier are all picked, there is a big dropoff in potential. Even though running back is generally a strength of this team, it’s nice to have multiple options for when things go wrong.
Top Target: Tony Pollard
Pollard has the fourth-highest offensive grade for a running back over the last four seasons at 91.3, behind only Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Expectations were high last season after the Dallas Cowboys let go of Ezekiel Elliott. Unfortunately, it took time for him to recover from his leg injuries from the 2022 divisional playoff round. By Week 11, he was back to his former self. He was the highest-graded rusher from that point on, finishing as RB13. He was finally receiving the playing time he deserved but wasn’t getting the ball enough when he was on the field.
Now, he’s with the Tennessee Titans and competing for playing time with Tyjae Spears. The sophomore running back is also very talented, but given Pollard’s past production, he has a chance to be the lead back in the Joe Mixon role in Brian Callahan’s offense.
Possible Targets: Jaylen Warren, Zack Moss, Javonte Williams, Devin Singletary, Brian Robinson Jr.
Round 10, Picks 94-97: Draft a wide receiver or running back
The next four rounds are mostly about picking “your guys.” If your favorite sleeper quarterback or tight end is available, it’s OK to draft them, but I’d advise stocking up on even more running backs and wide receivers. A running back or wide receiver who somewhat exceeds expectations here would be in your starting lineup in a good matchup, but even a quarterback or tight end who is picked here and has a good season won’t start over the star quarterback and tight end selected, regardless of the matchup.
Top Target: Devin Singletary
Singletary has consistently graded well as a runner, with a PFF rushing grade of at least 73.0 every season and at least a 78.0 mark in each of the past three seasons. He joins the New York Giants this season and should be the featured running back. Typically, feature backs are picked much higher, but he will be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines and has never graded well as a receiver. It's also possible that he won't play on third downs. That should prevent him from getting picked in the first half of drafts, but he can be a steal in the second half.
Possible Targets: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Javonte Williams, Brian Robinson Jr., Courtland Sutton, Tyjae Spears
Round 11, Picks 104-107: Draft a wide receiver, Ezekiel Elliott or Dallas Goedert
Top Target: Courtland Sutton (Player Profile)
Sutton has finished over 60% of his games as a top-36 fantasy wide receiver each of the last two seasons but has rarely finished among the top 12. Sutton is the clear top wide receiver on the Denver Broncos‘ depth chart after trading away his main competition Jerry Jeudy. If Sutton reports to training camp despite his contract situation or if he receives a new contract, he’s a perfect complementary piece to a team drafting many wide receivers.
Possible Targets: Tyler Lockett, Brian Thomas Jr., Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Goedert, Mike Williams
Round 12, Picks 114-117: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Top Target: Jerome Ford
Last season, Ford was the Browns primary running back with Nick Chubb out for the year. He finished at RB16 with a top-24 finish in 12 weeks. Chubb will potentially return this season, but it’s unclear when he will be back and to what extent he will be able to play. Ford was often splitting time with Kareem Hunt last season and will likely split with D’Onta Foreman for part of the season and Chubb the other part. While that split might not leave Ford as a top-10 running back anytime soon, several more weeks in the top 24 is a clear possibility.
Possible Targets: Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams, Brandin Cooks, Curtis Samuel, Zach Charbonnet
Round 13, Picks 124-127: Draft a wide receiver
Top Target: Brandin Cooks
It took a few weeks for Cooks to start producing in the Dallas Cowboys offense last season, but he scored the 24th-most fantasy points for a wide receiver from Week 6 until the end of the season. As mentioned with CeeDee Lamb, the offense has lost some of its receiving production and didn’t bring in much to replace them, which should put more emphasis on the other Cowboys receivers. A lot of Cooks’ fantasy production came from touchdowns which is bound to regress, but three of his best four games in terms of targets and receptions came in the last three weeks of the season including the playoffs. If Cooks can continue that momentum into the 2024 season, he will be one of the biggest steals of the draft.
Possible Targets: Curtis Samuel, Jakobi Meyers, Rashid Shaheed, Joshua Palmer, Jerry Jeudy
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
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