• RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Jones is a high-volume RB1 against Pittsburgh’s injury-reduced defense.
• QB Will Levis, Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Levis faces a vulnerable Tampa Bay secondary.
• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!
Estimated reading time: 9 minutes
Daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups require smart matchups analysis and rostership leverage opportunities to succeed. The analysis below details five fantasy assets capable of gaining significant leverage on the field.
RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers – $6,800 on FanDuel
Jones (62.7 PFF offense grade) is a high-end FanDuel RB1 based on good health, an advantageous matchup and multiple misdirecting factors that serve to unfoundedly suppress his rostership rate.
Jones should be employed as a contrarian cash-game RB1 and a locked-in GPP tournament player. His $6,800 FanDuel salary is just the 14th-highest among FanDuel's main slate running backs.
Green Bay’s notoriously conservative medical staff continues to smartly manage Jones’ practice repetitions, leaving Jones with a warning-orange, “Q- Hamstring” designation in FanDuel’s app. The faux-harbinger coupled with the Pittsburgh defense’s nominally strong “Steel Curtain” reputation should scare away skittish FanDuel users.
An injury rift runs through Pittsburgh’s defensive middle. Linebacker Cole Holcomb (72.2 PFF run-defense grade) ranks top three among Pittsburgh defenders in run-defense tackles (24), stops (16) and tackles for loss or no gain (five). He was lost to injured reserve earlier this week. Interior defender Montravius Adams’ (57.7 PFF run-defense grade) availability is in jeopardy following his Week 9 ankle sprain. Both interior defender Cameron Heyward (54.3 PFF run-defense grade, groin strain) and linebacker Elandon Roberts (73.4 PFF run-defense grade, nonspecific knee injury) were downgraded to Did Not Participate practice designation on Thursday. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick’s 79.3 PFF run-defense grade ranks No. 10 among 62 NFL safeties with at least 125 run-defense snaps. He has yet to practice since suffering a Week 8 hamstring strain.
Jones totaled a season-high 26 intended touches (21 rushing attempts and five targets) last week without suffering a setback, ensuring a high-volume Week 10 outing.
Should Pittsburgh make good on its 3.0-point home favorite spread, Jones’ sterling pass-catching talents will keep him involved. Among six Green Bay pass catchers with at least 15 targets, Jones’ 27.0% target rate and 2.00 yards per route run both rank No. 1.
Jones is a high-end FanDuel RB1.
QB Will Levis, Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,800 on FanDuel
Levis (63.4 PFF offense grade) established his fantasy-scoring ranges over the last two weeks, posting QB6 (26.6 fantasy points) and QB21 (9.7 fantasy points) finishes. Tampa Bay’s accommodating defense is further compromised by perimeter cornerbacks Carlton Davis III’s (51.3 PFF coverage grade, toe injury) and Jamel Dean’s (63.4 PFF coverage grade, concussion protocol) Week 9 injuries, prompting the front office to sign free agent cornerback Don Gardner (26.6 PFF preseason coverage grade) to the practice squad on Wednesday. Levis is a highly volatile FanDuel quarterback with an advantageous matchup.
Levis primarily functions as a Week 10 GPP tournament quarterback. His $6,800 FanDuel salary ranks just 17th among FanDuel’s main slate quarterbacks.
Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel has embraced a high-volume offensive approach with Levis under center despite Levis’ devil-may-care playing style. Tennessee’s 71.5 offensive plays per game rank No. 6 among NFL teams in Weeks 8-9 and their 6.2 offensive plays per drive rank No. 15. Levis’ 81 dropbacks tie for No. 13.
Levis’ aggressive playing style and Vrabel’s frequent play-action-pass playcalling pairs perfectly with Tampa Bay’s defensive weaknesses.
Levis’ passing data among 38 NFL quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks and his play-action passing data among 35 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks:
| NFL QB Passing | Will Levis |
| PFF Passing Grade | 62.5 (No. 27) |
| Big-Time-Throw % | 8.3% (No. 1) |
| Turnover-Worthy Play % | 4.9% (No. 32) |
| aDot | 11.4 (No. 1) |
| Yards Per Pass Att. | 7.4 (No. 12) |
| Past-The-Sticks Throw % | 41.8% (No. 11) |
| Play-Action % | 33.3% (No. 1) |
| PFF Play-Action Passing Grade | 72.5 (No. 16) |
| Play-Action Big-Time-Throw % | 9.1% (No. 4) |
| Play-Action Turnover-Worthy Play % | 3.7% (No. 27) |
Tampa Bay’s pass defense is largely beatable and as detailed in Week 10’s WR/CB Matchups to Target and Avoid, Tennessee slot receiver Kyle Philips (66.3 PFF receiving grade) has an excellent matchup against Tampa Bay slot cornerback Christian Izien (54.5 PFF coverage grade).
Tampa Bay’s coverage data and play-action coverage data among NFL teams:
| NFL-Team Coverage | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| PFF Coverage Grade | 57.5 (T-No. 26) |
| Catch % Allowed | 73.7% (No. 22) |
| Yards Allowed Per Coverage Snap | 7.03 (T-No. 30) |
| 15+-Yard Pass Plays Allowed % | 16.5% (No. 31) |
| PFF Play-Action Coverage Grade | 54.5 (No. 19) |
| Play-Action Catch % Allowed | 76.4% (No. 25) |
| Play-Action Yards Allowed Per Coverage Snap | 7.26 (No. 20) |
| Play-Action 15+-Yard Pass Plays Allowed % | 20.3% (No. 22) |
Levis has week-winning upside against Tampa Bay’s vulnerable pass defense.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans – $9,300 on FanDuel
Chase (85.2 PFF offense grade) should function as Cincinnati’s offensive centerpiece with No. 2 wide receiver Tee Higgins (66.9 PFF receiving grade) unlikely to play following his Week 10-practice hamstring strain. Houston’s secondary is expected to be without Nos. 1 and 2 perimeter cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. (69.1 PFF coverage grade, IR-Return/hamstring) and Steven Nelson (76.9 PFF coverage grade, back/neck) and safety Jimmie Ward (67.8 PFF coverage grade). Chase is an elite FanDuel WR1 with an easy path to double-digit targets.
Chase’s bruised back results in a FanDuel app “questionable” tag, likely dissuading skittish FanDuel users from employing him at his positional-high $9,300 salary. Chase makes for a contrarian cash-game WR1 and a pay-to-play WR1 in GPP tournaments.
The game’s 47.0-point FanDuel over/under is Week 10’s second-highest and FanDuel implies Cincinnati to score 26.75 points. As detailed in Week 10’s WR/CB Matchups to Target and Avoid, Houston’s rapidly ascending rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud (75.4 PFF passing grade) is capable of keeping pace with Cincinnati’s high-powered offense.
Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow (77.7 PFF passing grade) has fully recovered from his nagging preseason calf strain; his 91.9 PFF passing grade in Weeks 8-9 ranks No. 1 among NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks during that span.
PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Cincinnati a 5.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating.
Chase’s 66 first-read targets ties for No. 4 among NFL wide receivers and Higgins’ expected absence should help him challenge for the No. 1 overall spot.
Ward’s expected absence softens Houston’s centerfield coverage, creating new opportunities for Chase to build on his eight total splash zone targets. The splash zone was first studied by then-Rotoworld analyst Hayden Winks in 2019 and named by Legendary Upside’s Pat Kerrane in Week 7, 2023. The term refers to the area of the field both between the painted numbers and at least 10-plus yards downfield. Targets thrown into the splash zone yield more fantasy points, on average, than those thrown along the sideline at an equivalent depth. Chase’s 75.0% explosive pass play rate on splash zone targets bodes exceptionally well in this regard.
Among 63 NFL wide receivers with at least 215 receiving snaps, Chase ranks top eight in target rate (27.3%), yards after the catch per reception (5.4) and missed tackles forced (13).
Chase is an elite FanDuel WR1.
TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Chargers – $6,500
LaPorta (71.8 PFF receiving grade) garners elite TE1 and FanDuel-flex consideration against Los Angeles’ tight end-coverage platoon. LaPorta’s $6,500 FanDuel salary is $800 short of the positional maximum. He can be used in FanDuel competitions of all sizes. Unwarranted fears over Los Angeles safety Derwin James (57.2 PFF coverage grade) could suppress LaPorta’s FanDuel rostership rate.
The game’s 48.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 10’s highest, ensuring a high-scoring, fantasy-friendly shootout.
PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Detroit’s now-healthy offensive line a 6.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating.
Los Angeles linebackers LB Eric Kendricks (71.2 PFF coverage grade) and LB Kenneth Murray Jr. (68.3 PFF coverage grade), as well as the aforementioned James Jr., make up porous components of Los Angeles’ ineffective tight end-coverage unit.
PFF’s TE matchup chart gives LaPorta a 10.0% receiving matchup advantage rating over Kendricks.
The aforementioned trio’s tight end-coverage data among 102 NFL safeties and linebackers with at least 35 tight end-coverage snaps:
| NFL LB & S Coverage vs. TE | S Derwin James Jr. | LB Eric Kendricks | LB Kenneth Murray Jr. |
| PFF TE Coverage Grade | 49.4 (T-No. 76) | 71.1 (No. 23) | 58.8 (No. 56) |
| Catch % Allowed | 88.9% (T-No. 86) | 88.9% (T-No. 86) | 90.9% (T-No. 89) |
| Yards Allowed Per Coverage Snap | 2.12 (T-No. 86) | 2.58 (No. 95) | 1.63 (T-No. 68) |
| 15+-Yard Pass Plays Allowed % | 6.1% (No. 95) | 8.3% (T-No. 99) | 5.4% (No. 89) |
The matchup should further grow LaPorta’s impressive breakout campaign. Among 33 NFL tight ends with at least 150 receiving snaps, ranks No. 5 in yards per route run (1.76, YPRR) and ties for No. 12 in both missed tackles forced (five) and explosive pass plays (six).
He likewise ranks top six in first-read target rate (25.8%), first-read targets (41) and first-read YPRR (2.10) among 20 NFL tight ends with at least 25 first-read targets and both his 32.7 yards per reception and 12.3 yards after the catch per reception on splash zone targets rank No. 1 among 16 NFL tight ends with at least six splash zone targets.
LaPorta is an elite TE1 with flex-worthy scoring potential against Los Angeles.
RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills – $6,400 on FanDuel
Williams (68.3 PFF offense grade) exits his team’s Week 9 bye primed for a humongous workload against Buffalo’s injury-depleted defense. Williams’ affordable $6,400 FanDuel salary ties for just the 21st-highest among FanDuel Sunday-to-Monday slate running backs, allowing for convenient flex-usability in both cash games and GPP tournaments.
The game’s 46.5-point over/under is Week 10’s third-highest
Denver head coach Sean Payton eased Williams into action following his 2022 ACL, LCL and PLC injuries but unleashed Williams in the team’s Week 8, pre-bye week win over the Kansas City Chiefs (59.0 PFF run-defense grade). Williams responded positively, producing FanDuel RB9 results via 17.3 half-PPR points.
Williams’ pre-bye week usage with his backfield teammates’ usage:
| Denver Broncos RB Usage in Week 8 | Javonte Williams |
| Early-Down Rush Att. – Backfield % | 25 – 86.2% |
| Routes Run – Route % | 11 – 42.3% |
| Targets – Backfield Target % | 3 – 33.3% |
| Green Zone Snaps – Snap % | 7 – 87.5% |
| Green Zone: Rush Att. – Targets | 4 – 1 |
Williams should have another successful showing against Buffalo’s banged-up defense. The unit lost linebacker Matt Milano (73.0 PFF defense grade) and interior defender DaQuan Jones (90.2 PFF defense grade) to injured reserve in Week 5 and the unit racked up four new injuries in Week 9; safeties Jordan Poyer (75.2 PFF defense grade, shin injury) and Micah Hyde (68.8 PFF defense grade, neck/stinger), linebacker Terrel Bernard (67.0 PFF defense grade, concussion) and cornerback Christian Benford (66.4 PFF defense grade, hamstring strain).
Buffalo’s Weeks 6-9 run-defense data and running back-coverage data among NFL teams during that span:
| NFL-Team Run Defense | Buffalo Bills |
| PFF Run-Defense Grade | 60.6 (No. 23) |
| Average Depth of Tackle | 3.66 (No. 15) |
| Missed Tackles | 13 (T-No. 16) |
| Negatively Graded Run-Play % | 67.4% (No. 29) |
| PFF RB Coverage Grade | 73.7 (T-No. 14) |
| Catch % Allowed | 85.7% (No. 22) |
| Yards Allowed Per Coverage Snap | 6.21 (T-No. 19) |
| 15+-Yard Pass Plays Allowed % | 14.3% (No. 24) |
Williams is a top-12 positional candidate with a flex-worthy FanDuel salary.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.