• Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (88.6 PFF passing grade): After three straight “full participant” practice designations (high ankle sprain), Mahomes is good to go.
• Cincinnati Bengals RB Samaje Perine (63.5 PFF receiving grade): His passing-game chops will be on full display versus the Kansas City Chiefs’ ill-equipped front seven.
• San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle (86.6 PFF receiving grade): He should be able to exploit the Philadelphia Eagles’ vulnerable linebacking corps.
Estimated Reading Time: 16 mins
The conference championship games of the NFL playoffs have arrived. Here are five recommended plays to help you win big in DraftKings GPP and cash game competitions.
QB PATRICK MAHOMES, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ($7,600 ON DRAFTKINGS) VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS
- Kansas City versus Cincinnati bears a 48.0-point over/under at BetMGM, with Kansas City implied to score 24.75 points. Both numbers are fantasy-friendly.
- PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Kansas City a top-ranked 29% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, 27 percentage points better than the next closest team.
- Quarterback Patrick Mahomes (88.6 PFF passing grade) was given a position-high $7,600 DraftKings salary for the conference championship game.
- Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain in the second quarter of Kansas City’s divisional-round win over the Jacksonville Jaguars (62.2 PFF coverage grade). Per Adam Hutchison’s Injury Index, quarterbacks average 4.4 games missed due to the injury, but Mahomes was able to return to the game in the second half last week and surprisingly logged a “full participant“ practice designation Wednesday through Friday, signaling the injury is far less significant than is typical.
- The DFS field scares easily with injuries in play, though. Coupling the ankle concerns with Mahomes’ $400 tax makes the regular-season passing champion (5,251 passing yards and 41 passing touchdowns) suddenly GPP tournament-viable.
- Mahomes remains a reasonable cash-game option, as well.
- Mahomes’ playing style shifted moderately after the injury. The table below ranks in parentheses his Weeks 1-wild card passing data among 43 NFL quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks. Mahomes’ divisional-round second-half passing data has been included for reference. “DIV” refers to the NFL playoffs divisional round. “No. 1” denotes the player, team or unit’s best performance.
| PFF Passing Grade | aDot – Past the Sticks % | Avg. Time to Throw | Big-Time Throw % – Turnover-Worthy Play % | Adj. Comp. % – Adj. Comp. % Past the Sticks | PFF Passing Grade Past the Sticks | |
| Weeks 1-WC | 89.0 (No. 2) | 7.7 (No. 31) – 39.3% (No. 21) | 2.85 (No. 17) | 4.8% (No. 10) – 2.3% (No. 7) | 77.8% (No. 5) – 88.7% (No. 9) | 71.0 (No. 1) |
| DIV 2nd Half | 58.5 | 7.4 – 40.0% | 2.61 | 0.0% – 0.0% | 71.4% – 87.5% | 58.7 |
- While aspects of Mahomes’ data swings appear concerning, his ability to get the ball out quickly and complete passes past the sticks was largely uninhibited.
- While Cincinnati’s defense boasts coverage playmakers, there are cracks in the armor.
- Since losing shadow cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (73.1 PFF coverage grade) in Week 8, Cincinnati has struggled against passes thrown in 2.61 seconds or quicker post-snap.
- The table below ranks in parentheses Cincinnati’s coverage data on passes thrown in 2.61 seconds or quicker in Weeks 9-wild card among all 32 NFL teams.
| PFF Coverage Grade | Catch % Allowed | Yds Allowed/Cov. Snap | 15-Plus-Yd Pass Plays Allowed | Open-Target % | Missed Tackles |
| 82.1 (No. 7) | 75.3% (No. 22) | 6.68 (No. 25) | 9.7% (No. 9) | 51.0% (No. 4) | 15 (T-No. 14) |
- The table below ranks in parentheses Mahomes’ passing data on throws attempted in 2.61 seconds or quicker among 39 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 such dropbacks.
| PFF Passing Grade | Big-Time Throw % – Turnover-Worthy Play % | Adj. Comp. % | Yds/Att. | NFL Passer Rating | aDot – YAC % |
| 74.9 (No. 19) | 1.5% (No. 30) – 1.9% (T-No. 16) | 82.0% (No. 8) | 7.1 (No. 7) | 109.7 (No. 3) | 4.3 (No. 36) – 72.0% (No. 2) |
- Expect head coach Andy Reid to dial up short-game passes to keep pressure off Mahomes while layering in targets past the sticks.
- Reid dialed up screen passes at a 13.3% rate this season, 10th highest in the league.
- The table below ranks in parentheses Mahomes’ screen data among 34 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 screen-pass dropbacks.
| PFF Screen Passing Grade | Big-Time Throw % – Turnover-Worthy Play % | Adj. Comp. % | Yds/Att. | NFL Passer Rating | Avg. Time to Throw |
| 71.3 (No. 1) | 1.1% (No. 2) – 0.0% (T-No. 1) | 96.5% (No. 8) | 6.8 (No. 4) | 113.7 (No. 3) | 1.50 (T-No. 6) |
- Mahomes’ proficiency in the screen game is as good as it gets. The table below ranks in parentheses Kansas City’s wide receivers among 39 NFL wide receivers with at least nine screen targets and their running backs among 53 NFL running backs with at least five screen targets.
| NFL Screen Receiving Data | PFF Screen Receiving Grade | Per Routes Run Rates: Tgts – Yds | Yds/Rec. | Missed Tackles Forced Rec. | 15-Plus-Yd Pass Plays |
| WR Kadarius Toney | 73.1 (T-No. 13) | 69.8% (No. 1) – 3.00 (T-No. 4) | 4.4 (No. 33) | 2 (T-No. 20) | 0 (T-No. 25) |
| WR Skyy Moore | 77.7 (No. 8) | 32.3% (No. 16) – 1.91 (No. 16) | 6.1 (T-No. 17) | 6 (No. 5) | 1 (T-No. 11) |
| WR Mecole Hardman | 63.5 (T-No. 28) | 39.1% (No. 10) – 2.96 (T-No. 6) | 7.6 (No. 10) | 0 (T-No. 31) | 1 (T-No. 11) |
| RB Jerick McKinnon | 90.6 (T-No. 8) | 39.6% (No. 34) – 3.15 (No. 13) | 8.0 (T-No. 18) | 2 (T-No. 22) | 4 (T-No. 4) |
| RB Isiah Pacheco | 85.4 (No. 18) | 20.0% (No. 52) – 3.00 (T-No. 18) | 15.0 (No. 2) | 2 (T-No. 22) | 2 (T-No. 9) |
| RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 93.4 (No. 1) | 40.0% (T-No. 31) – 3.67 (No. 9) | 9.2 (No. 9) | 3 (T-No. 14) | 1 (T-No. 21) |
- Tight end Travis Kelce (91.6 PFF receiving grade) remains an explosive, tackle-breaking force on throws past the sticks.
- The table below ranks in parentheses Kelce’s past-the-sticks receiving data among 45 NFL pass catchers with at least 50 targets past the sticks.
| PFF Past-The-Sticks Receiving Grade | Per Routes Run Rates: Tgts – Yds | Catch % – Contested Catch % | aDot – YAC/Rec. | 15-Plus-Yd Pass Plays | Missed Tackles Forced |
| 94.8 (No. 3) | 31.9% (No. 30) – 3.65 (T-No. 19) | 65.3% (No. 3) – 31.3% (T-No. 41) | 12.6 (No. 41) – 7.0 (No. 2) | 27 (T-No. 9) | 11 (No. 2) |
- PFF’s TE matchup chart gives Kelce a top-ranked 58% receiving matchup advantage rating versus Cincinnati linebacker Logan Wilson (52.2 PFF past-the-sticks coverage grade).
- Among 52 NFL linebackers with at least 100 past-the-sticks coverage snaps, Wilson ranks outside the top 30 in catch rate allowed (73.7%), yards allowed per coverage snap (1.11) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (3.7%).
- Among tight ends in the regular season, Kelce (197 out-wide receiving snaps) is the only one to have recorded at least 130 out-wide receiving snaps. His 90.2 PFF out-wide receiving grade laps the field by 12.4 points.
- Among 48 tight ends with at least 25 out-wide receiving snaps, Kelce’s 26.2% targets per route run ranks No. 4, his 2.46 yards per route run leads the field by 0.61 and both his 11 explosive pass plays and 10 missed tackles forced receiving more than double those of the No. 2-ranked player.
- Sans Awuzie in Week 9 through the wild-card round, Cincinnati’s out-wide cornerbacks rank 19th in yards allowed per coverage snap (2.19) and 21st in explosive pass plays allowed rate (5.7%).
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