Fire & Ice: Top starts, sits and sleepers in fantasy football for Week 10

• Brock Purdy is about to catch fire: Purdy has been heating up, scoring 24-plus fantasy points in two of the last three weeks. Now, not only will Christian McCaffrey be back by his side to help out the San Francisco 49ers offense, but Purdy will face one of the softest secondaries in the league this weekend against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

• Don’t be scared to start Nico Collins in his first game back from IR: Before suffering a hamstring injury in Week 5, Collins led the NFL with 489 receiving yards over the first four weeks of the season — he had over 100 more receiving yards than any other player during that span.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!

Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes

Are you struggling to set your fantasy lineups? Maybe I can help… Below you can find my top fire (boom) and ice (bust) players at each position for Week 10. I also include my sleeper of the week at each position in case you are in a deeper league or in need of a replacement for an ice player.

Don’t miss my Fire & Ice chart at the bottom of this page. There, I have listed out all of my fire, good, sleeper and ice plays for Week 10 of the 2024 fantasy football season.

Quarterbacks

Fire QB Start of the Week: Brock Purdy (at TB)

Purdy has finished as a top-eight fantasy quarterback in each of his last three games played. Except for Brandon Aiyuk, who is out for the season, all of the San Francisco 49ers‘ top weapons, including Christian McCaffrey, are all expected to play this weekend. On top of that, Purdy gets a fantastic matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have allowed the second-most fantasy on average to quarterbacks in 2024. The quarterback that has faced Tampa Bay has finished as a top-five fantasy scorer at their position in four of the last five weeks. Since Week 5, the Buccaneers defense has allowed the most passing yards and passing touchdowns in the NFL.

Sleeper QB of the Week: Daniel Jones (at CAR)

Last week, Daniel Jones had a season-high 24.4 fantasy points while putting up 54 rushing yards and scoring three touchdowns for the first time this season. He should have a second straight great fantasy performance as he faces the Carolina Panthers in Week 10, who are terrible in all facets of defense. The Panthers have allowed the fourth most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and the most rushing yards in the NFL this season.

If you are worried that Jones isn’t a good enough quarterback to be confident about throwing him into your starting lineup even against a bad defense, don’t stress about that. Since Week 5, the Panthers have allowed rookies Bo Nix (29.8) and Caleb Williams (23.6) to rack up big games against them, and even let Marcus Mariota come off the bench and put up 19.6 points against them in Week 7.

Ice QB Start of the Week: Patrick Mahomes (vs. DEN)

Last week, I had Mahomes as my “Fire QB Start of the Week” as he was playing the Buccaneers, but this week he goes right back into the “ice” category where he has been every week prior to Week 9. Mahomes should be viewed as a streaming fantasy quarterback – a player who can be started in great matchups but should be avoided otherwise. Over a full-year stretch from Week 8, 2023 through Week 8, 2024, Mahomes was averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game. He had zero top-13 QB finishes in the 2024 season prior to Week 9.

The Denver Broncos may seem like an OK matchup to start Mahomes, as Lamar Jackson chewed them up last week while recording 23.6 fantasy points against them, but Jackson is a far superior fantasy QB to Mahomes. Jackson is the only quarterback that scored 14-plus points against the Denver defense since Week 2.

Running Backs

Fire RB Start of the Week: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (at CAR)

Despite a disappointing fantasy performance from Tyrone Tracy Jr. in Week 9, it was still encouraging to see that he played 71% of the New York Giants‘ offensive snaps and got 17 scrimmage touches compared to Devin Singletary’s seven. Tracy has now had at least 16 carries in four of the last five weeks and if he gets that type of volume in Week 10 against the Panthers, he will have a huge game.

The Panthers are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the running back position in 2024, while they have allowed the most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in the NFL.

Sleeper RB of the Week: Ray Davis (at IND)

Davis has scored at least 11 fantasy points in three of the last four weeks, posting a 16-point performance last week despite playing on 12% of the Buffalo Bills offense snaps in the game. He has scored a touchdown in two of the last three games, and he has proven to be a legit downfield threat, as he has had a 40-plus yards reception in two of the last four games. Davis is the only running back in the NFL with multiple 40-plus yard catches this season.

The Indianapolis Colts have allowed the third most scrimmage yards per game to the running back position this season and if the Bills get an early lead, Davis could see more playing time this weekend. This is a risky play but if you are desperate with four teams on bye, Davis is a viable starting option that you can find on waivers.

Ice RB Start of the Week: Tank Bigsby (vs. MIN)

After a good stretch of games where he gave fantasy managers a couple of huge performances, Bisgby has now scored 12 total fantasy points over the last two weeks combined — he has scored two fantasy points in two of the last four weeks. With Travis Etienne back on the field, Bisby saw his playing time drop and he had just eight carries after having 44 carries from Weeks 7-8.

Bigsby’s fantasy production has been very reliant on getting huge volume as a rusher and scoring a rushing touchdown as he only has three receptions on the entire season. Not only is the Minnesota Vikings‘ defense very stingy against the run, but their offense is expected to put up points with ease against the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ sorry defense, which could cause the game script to flip to a heavy passing attack for the Jacksonville offense very quickly.

Wide Receivers

Fire WR Start of the Week: Nico Collins (vs. DET)

If Nico Collins is back on the field, he is back into your starting lineups. Over his full four games played this year, Collins averaged 122 receiving yards per game and 22.7 fantasy points per game. He was well on his way to another huge performance in Week 5 when he already had 78 yards and a touchdown before exiting the game in the first quarter due to a hamstring injury that has kept him on the sidelines over the last month.

The Houston Texans should be passing more than normal in this matchup against the Detroit Lions because they have a stingy run defense but can be beaten down the field. The Lions have allowed the most receiving yards and third-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiving position in 2024.

Sleeper WR Start of the Week: Jauan Jennings (at TB)

After missing the 49ers’ last two games due to a hip injury, Jauan Jennings is expected to return to the field this weekend. This will be Jennings’ first game of the season playing without Brandon Aiyuk, who tore his ACL in Week 7. The last time Jennings was asked to step in for an injured starting 49ers’ wide receiver (Deebo Samuel), he put up a career day with 11 receptions, 175 receiving yards and three touchdowns in Week 3. Fantasy managers shouldn’t expect that type of production, but he will get a lot of extra playing time with Aiyuk sidelined and he has a fantastic matchup in Week 10.

The Buccaneers have allowed the second most fantasy points to the wide receiver position since Week 5. Over their last five games, the Buccaneers have allowed four different WRs to score at least 22 fantasy points against them.

Ice WR Start of the Week: Marvin Harrison Jr. (vs. NYJ)

Marvin Harrison Jr. has finished outside the top 50 wide receiver scorers in four of the last five weeks. He has two games with over 100 receiving yards in his rookie season but in his other seven games, he has averaged 29 receiving yards and 6.9 fantasy points per game. To add salt to the wound, he gets a very tough matchup this week against the New York Jets, who are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers in 2024.

If you need to start him, the good news is that the last time I had Harrison as the ice start of the week was in Week 8, when he ended up having his only good game in over a month. Maybe, I will reverse-jix him again!

Tight Ends

Fire TE Start of the Week: Cade Otton (vs. SF)

Fantasy managers may be afraid to start Cade Otton against a 49ers defense that has allowed the fourth fewest receiving yards to the tight end position this season, but don’t let that scare you. The 49ers have been leakier against tight ends as of late, allowing a TE to record 50-plus receiving yards against them in three of their last four games. Plus, Otton’s target volume is just too great to worry about the defense he will be facing.

In his last two games, playing without both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Otton has finished as the TE1 and TE3 on the week scoring 29.1 and 21.7 fantasy points. He has now had at least eight receptions, 75-plus receiving yards and 18-plus fantasy points in three straight games. Otton can join Travis Kelce as the only tight ends since the 1970 NFL merger to record eight or more receptions in four straight games.

Sleeper TE of the Week: Theo Johnson (at CAR)

This fourth-round rookie recorded career-highs in targets (six), and receiving yards (51) in addition to catching his first touchdown last weekend against the Washington Commanders. Theo Johnson has been on the field for 90% of the Giants’ offensive snaps since Week 6 and gets an enticing matchup this weekend. No team has allowed more receiving touchdowns or fantasy points to tight ends than the Panthers in 2024.

Over the last three weeks, Zach Ertz (14.3), Adam Trautman (18.5) and Taysom Hill (16.0) have all scored at least 14 fantasy points in their matchup against the Panthers.

Ice TE Start of the Week: Sam LaPorta (at HOU)

After an epic rookie season, Sam LaPorta is becoming one of the biggest fantasy busts for the 2024 season. The great target volume that he saw last season has confusingly just disappeared — he is averaging just 3.3 targets and 2.8 receptions per game this year.

The Texans have not allowed a tight end to record more than 41 receiving yards against them in any game this season. They have allowed just two tight ends to score more than seven fantasy points against them this season — Hunter Henry and Tucker Kraft who both had a receiving touchdown in their matchup. LaPorta will need to score a touchdown this weekend to finish as a top-12 fantasy TE, but he just two receiving touchdowns this season … and one of them came on a trick play pass from RB David Montgomery.

Fire & Ice Fantasy Football Plays

Here, I categorize every relevant fantasy player into five different buckets: (1) fire starts (best starts of the week); (2) thumbs up (good starts); (3) Risky players with upside (sleepers); (4) Ice starts (predicting bad performance from good player); (5) Stop (must sits).

Note: If a player/defense is not listed, I am not considering starting them in Week 10. I did not include Bengals/Ravens players as they play on Thursday night.