Fantasy Football: Biggest surprises of the 2023 season — wide receivers

• Puka Nacua is one of the biggest surprises of the season that nobody saw coming: Even the most optimistic believers in Nacua couldn’t have expected his elite fantasy season.

• Nico Collins takes a big Year 3 leap: Collins went from sleeper option to must-start fantasy asset nearly instantly in 2023.

• Tee Higgins does not deliver in a contract year: The Bengals wideout posted career-low numbers in 2023, made that much worse when considering he was a top-15 wide receiver drafted this offseason.

Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes

Every NFL season is full of surprises, both good and bad, and 2023 was no exception. Plenty of fantasy assets emerged seemingly out of nowhere to become quality starting options, and others let us down, either due to injury, poor play and inefficiency or getting benched.

In this article, we’ll look at some of the pleasant surprises and surprise disappointments at wide receiver from 2023, leaving out players who missed significant chunks of time due to injury.

Pleasant surprise: Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

• PPR WR5
• ADP: Undrafted

Rostered in just 2.3% of ESPN leagues ahead of Week 1, Nacua instantly became the hottest waiver wire target after his 14-target, 10-catch, 119-receiving-yard game. Nacua immediately proved that he wasn’t just a one-hit wonder with an even bigger game in Week 2 where he saw 19 targets, caught 15 passes and totaled 147 receiving yards. While these big numbers took place with Cooper Kupp on injured reserve, that didn’t stop Nacua from continuing his incredible rookie season by finishing the year as the overall PPR WR5, which included 17.8 points per game (seventh) and 12 games with Kupp back in the lineup.

Nacua delivered nine top-12 PPR wide receiver finishes this season and finished fourth in receiving yards (1,445). Nauca’s 26.4% target rate ranked 10th among wide receivers (min. 100 routes run) and even surpassed Cooper Kupp’s target rate of 23.2% — creating a new WR1 for the Los Angeles Rams.

Pleasant surprise: Nico Collins, Houston Texans

• PPR WR18
• ADP: WR58

Collins was drafted around WR58 in drafts this offseason. While even I was much higher on him, touting him as a player to target in drafts, my personal WR45 ranking turned out to still be incredibly low compared to what he was able to accomplish in Year 3. Collins finished as the PPR WR18 overall and WR15 in points per game, greatly exceeding even the most optimistic expectations for him heading into this season.

The entire Houston Texans passing attack could be considered a surprise this season as rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud turned in some great performances himself, allowing Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz and even Noah Brown to be fantasy-relevant throughout the year. Collins stood above them all though, leading the team in targets (100), receptions (71), receiving yards (1,102), and tying for the team lead in touchdowns (seven). It’s safe to say that Collins will no longer be drafted outside of the top-50 wide receivers next year after this breakout performance.

Nico Collins‘ 2023 season and WR ranks versus his career numbers and WR ranks:

Pleasant surprise: Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers

• PPR WR15
• ADP: WR50

Thielen is the oldest player on the list, and one of the oldest active wide receivers in the NFL. He not only outperformed offseason expectations by finishing as the PPR WR15 for the year, but he was the only 33-year-old (or older) player to rank among the top-125 fantasy scorers at his position, as potential future Hall of Famer Julio Jones finished as PPR WR129 just hammering home how much of an outlier Thielen truly is in today’s NFL.

Thielen has consistently outperformed expectations throughout his career, coming into the league as a UDFA out of Minnesota State in 2013 and hanging around on the Minnesota Vikings roster before finally breaking out and leading the team in receiving yards in 2016, 2017 and 2018. While continuing to be a high-volume target earner in the seasons that followed, it was clear that Thielen’s best years were behind him, which allowed the Vikings to release him this past offseason. Thielen eventually signed on with the Carolina Panthers and proved that he’s still capable of being a top wide receiver in the NFL, delivering his first 1,000-yard season since 2018 and even finishing with more receiving yards than any Vikings player in 2023 — something nobody saw coming as the 50th wide receiver drafted this offseason.

Pleasant surprise: Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

• PPR WR21
• ADP: WR68

Rice may have been the seventh wide receiver drafted in the 2023 NFL Draft, but he was the 68th wide receiver drafted in terms of 2023 offseason ADP. There were certainly reasons for his lower value coming into the year, including the Kansas City Chiefs crowded depth chart and tendency to deploy a heavy rotation at the position — and these concerns definitely remained a concern for the early part of the year. There was also a lot to like about Rice’s talent and fit in this offense to the point where he was considered here as the favorite to emerge from the Chiefs wide receiver corps and make an impact in Year 1.

Rice consistently proved to be the Chief's best wide receiver option on a weekly basis despite the team not fully unleashing him as a regular part of the offense until Week 11 where he saw a season-high 10 targets and a 67% snap share that he would continue to improve in the weeks to come. Rice finished the year as the PPR WR21 but from Week 11-on when he truly became a regular part of the offense, he was the PPR WR9, ultimately exceeding even the highest expectations for him this season.

Surprise disappointment: Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

• PPR WR48
• ADP: WR14

While injuries did play a part in Higgins' disappointing season, it’s still worth noting that he appeared in 12 games through the first 17 weeks and was only able to deliver four usable fantasy performances. His range of outcomes varied wildly when he was in the lineup. Higgins had five weeks outside of the top-75 PPR wide receivers, which, for a player drafted among the top 15 at his position, is a level of variance that fantasy managers did not sign up for whether Joe Burrow was healthy or not. 

Higgins’ poor performance in the final year of his rookie contract is a surprise, as he is currently on pace for career-low numbers in receiving yards (656), receiving grade (70.9), target rate (18.7%) and yards per route run (1.66). He has also matched a career-high in regular season drops with six, as one of the most unreliable fantasy assets drafted within the top 20 at his position this season.

Tee Higgins‘ 2023 numbers and WR ranks (min. 150 routes run) versus his career numbers and WR ranks (min. 600 routes):

Surprise disappointment: Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

• PPR WR53
• ADP: WR29

The next few names are wide receivers who weren’t necessarily drafted highly but seemingly had a legitimate chance to outperform expectations heading into the year considering their low cost in drafts, but they failed to even do that. Jeudy is the first name on the list as a former 15th overall pick in 2020. The Denver Broncos even went as far as to exercise Jeudy’s fifth-year option heading into this season, and he still underperformed in a big way.

Drafted as the 29th wide receiver heading into the year, Jeudy was thought to at least have WR2 upside, potentially even WR1 upside on any given week considering his talent, the team’s investment in him, and the Broncos offense as a whole looking to bounce back under head coach Sean Payton. Jeudy’s upside never came to fruition in 2023 — not even once. He never finished among the top-24 PPR wide receivers on a given week and even went as far as to finish outside of the top-40 PPR wide receivers in nine of his 15 games. Jeudy scored one touchdown all year and averaged 8.3 PPR points per game (60th) for what turned out to be an abysmal season for the former first-round pick.

Surprise disappointment: Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders

• PPR WR54
• ADP: WR35

After a promising rookie campaign where he scored seven touchdowns in 12 games and had a strong stretch to close out the year with 344 yards (tied for 25th) and three touchdowns (tied for eighth) in the final five games of 2022, there were many expecting a breakout season from the 2022 first-round pick. Dotson’s ADP within the WR3 range felt like a great spot to potentially buy low on an emerging star. If fantasy managers knew that Sam Howell would lead the NFL in dropbacks (680) through the first 17 weeks of the year and that Dotson would play in every game this season, there’s no doubt that his ADP would have been even higher as we’d all assume the sophomore first-round pick would have been productive by default.

Unfortunately, that isn’t how things worked out for Dotson in 2023, as he was significantly less impactful than his rookie year despite the increase in playing time. Dotson saw a lower target rate (12.6%) and was significantly less efficient this season before ultimately finishing as the PPR WR54 overall and WR68 (7.6) in points per game.

Comparing Jahan Dotson’s rookie and sophomore seasons:

Surprise disappointment: Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers

• PPR WR74
• ADP: WR49

Keeping with the trend of former first-round picks, this one comes from a rookie first-rounder who didn’t have overly high expectations coming into the year but even still managed to fall well short of what fantasy managers were expecting to see from the second wide receiver taken in the 2023 NFL Draft. Johnston was drafted to a seemingly great offense with Justin Herbert at the helm, and while he wasn’t expected to overtake Keenan Allen or Mike Williams on the depth chart in Year 1, he did get that opportunity as both players dealt with injuries and missed time this season.

With Johnston seemingly the next man up on the depth chart, he still couldn’t crack more than five targets in a game and never once finished inside the top-24 PPR wide receivers on any given week. Compared to the first wide receiver taken in the 2023 NFL Draft, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who cracked the top-24 PPR wide receivers three times, finished as the PPR WR45 and did so with the two wide receivers ahead of him on the depth chart missing just a combined two games on the year. Comparatively, Smith-Njigba’s 19.0% target rate (49th) when considering his spot on the depth chart, to Johnston’s 13.7% (85th) and similar spot on the depth chart with much more opportunity to step up, just makes his rookie season all the more disappointing. For dynasty managers, especially, this was far from the start to Johnston’s career that many were hoping to see, even when considering the tempered expectations for his rookie year.