• James Cook was a top-12 RB last season: There is ample reason to believe the Buffalo Bills' top running back will get more opportunities this year.
Jaylen Waddle has WR1 talent: Waddle has improved throughout his NFL career and was one of the few wide receivers with a 90.0-plus receiving grade last season.
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Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes
From first-round picks to undrafted gems and everywhere in between, fantasy football playoff and championship teams are constructed from a wide variety of players, although most cores include those selected early on.
These league-winner articles aim to identify the players who should be picked in the second, third and fourth rounds and are most likely to propel fantasy teams to glory at the end of the season.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Monday, September 2
James Cook, Buffalo Bills (ADP: 4.01, From consensus ADP)
Cook flashed versatility in his second season, playing well on gap/zone plays and excelling on non-perfectly blocked plays and against eight-man boxes. He has been particularly good at breaking off longer runs, although they haven't led to touchdowns.
The Georgia product took major steps forward in his utilization from his rookie year to his sophomore campaign, playing significantly more snaps in every situation while receiving the ball roughly the same amount while he was on the field.
Latavius Murray and Damien Harris were his primary competition early in the 2023 season, but neither is on the 2024 roster. Buffalo signed Leonard Fournette in the middle of the season, but he ended up playing only 26 snaps. Ty Johnson has been mostly a receiving back in his NFL career and could have that role again, while fourth-rounder Ray Davis may also factor in.
The big question for Cook is what his goal-line work will look like. He ran the ball four times when the Bills were within four yards of scoring last season, which isn’t nearly enough. The other Bills running backs had 13 such carries. Davis may get those carries in 2024, given his size. The bigger problem is dual-threat quarterback Josh Allen, who ran 15 times in those situations. Ideally, Cook will get more goal-line carries, but even if he doesn’t, we should expect similar touchdown production to last season, if not better with more breakaway runs for touchdowns.
The Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey following Week 10 of 2023, and Joe Brady took over. That corresponds closely to when Cook started receiving the ball more often. He averaged 12 carries and 2.4 receptions per game in 2023 with Dorsey and 17 carries and 3.1 receptions per game with Brady.
Cook finished at RB12 last season, in part thanks to his ability to stay healthy, but several factors, including less veteran competition, the offensive coordinator change, continuity on the offensive line and the Bills not being as strong, all point to Cook seeing more opportunities this season.
Editor's note: For a more complete look at Cook this season, check out his full player profile.
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers (ADP: 3.11)
Jacobs has been one of the league's best rushers over the last five years. His 92.9 PFF rushing grade since 2019 ranks fourth among running backs, behind only Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry and Tony Pollard. He’s also forced 295 missed tackles, which leads all players at the position.
The former first-round pick peaked in 2022 and was the only running back named to the AP All-Pro first team. He wasn’t nearly as effective in 2023, likely due to his unhappiness with the organization.
Jacobs was given a four-year, $48 million contract, so he’s assured of having a large role in the offense.
Jacobs will primarily face competition from MarShawn Lloyd. Lloyd was a third-round pick who only played in the first preseason game and has since missed time due to a hamstring injury. He’s still missing practice but avoided landing on injured reserve. Until recently, we also thought he would be facing competition from veteran A.J. Dillon, but Dillon will miss the entire season on injured reserve. Jacob’s ADP hasn’t changed much since the news, which is a big reason why Jacobs is a value at his current ADP.
Dillon is one of the biggest running backs in the league, and even though he might not have taken a lot of carries in general, he very well could have taken goal-line snaps. Now, those snaps should primarily go to Jacobs. He is going from a bottom-12 offensive in points scored to a top-12, so Jacobs should score more touchdowns this season.
Jacobs may play fewer snaps on early-downs compared to his time with the Raiders, though he could get more work on third downs and during two minute drills. This could lead to more receptions, which would help his fantasy value in PPR leagues. Plus, Jacobs has had conversations with coach Matt LaFleur about boosting his production as a pass-catcher.
Editor's note: For a more complete look at Jacobs this season, check out his full player profile.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins (ADP: 3.10)
Waddle’s per-play metrics improved from 2022-23, leading to the fifth-highest receiving grade among wide receivers last season. The only problem is he missed a few games and significant time in others due to injury. He missed Week 3 due to a concussion and the last two weeks of the regular season due to an ankle injury.
While he didn’t show up on the official injury report for any other reason last season, there were two games where he played less than 50% of Miami's offensive snaps and another six where he played less than 70%. There were only three games where he played more than 80% of Miami's offensive snaps in 2023, and he hasn’t seen more than 86% since his rookie season.
Waddle has been a clear lead receiver when healthy. His primary competition is Tyreek Hill, which makes Waddle the league's best No. 2 wide receiver. Hill probably limits Waddle’s ability to finish as a top-five fantasy wide receiver. Waddle deserves a target share closer to 30% based on his talent, but it will probably stay around 24% as long as Hill doesn’t decline. Waddle finished top 10 in 2022, and his fantasy points per game probably would have been similar this year had it not been for the injuries.
Luckily, the Dolphins did not have a lot of depth at wide receiver or tight end last season, allowing Waddle to see a similar target share and first-read target percentage to other No. 1 receivers.
Waddle will start his third year with Mike McDaniel as his head coach. While McDaniel has helped the Dolphins offense succeed, he’s a big reason why Waddle’s playing time has been limited. Even when Waddle is healthy, he’s only playing roughly 80% of Miami's offensive snaps on both run and pass plays because McDaniel prefers to keep both Waddle and Hill off the field more than most elite wide receivers. This keeps both players well-rested with high-efficiency numbers, but fantasy football is more about volume, so more playing time would potentially help them. We can expect his playing time to remain limited this season, particularly after the injuries in 2023.
Waddle has the talent to be a potential first-round fantasy pick, but his constant injuries from last season along with being the second priority pushes his ADP down two rounds. A top-five season is possible if he outperforms Tyreek Hill and stays healthy, but there is also a chance he doesn’t stay healthy and we get another season like last year.
Editor's note: For a more complete look on Waddle this season, check out his full Player Profile.
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 4.02)
Smith was the 10th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft and has mostly lived up to expectations. He has finished as a top-20 wide receiver with good volume and efficiency numbers across the board. The fourth-year wideout has also stayed relatively healthy and has run a lot of routes, which certainly helps his fantasy value. Unfortunately, the one thing Smith has been best at is playing in the slot, and he doesn’t play there often.
Smith’s role in the offense has consistently been as the lead X receiver. It’s rare to see receivers have a 96%-plus route snap percentage in back-to-back years, so there is a decent chance that will regress.
Smith has faced significant competition for targets from A.J. Brown and tight end Dallas Goedert. Goedert’s fantasy production has declined the most since the three have joined forces. Last season, it was Quez Watkins, Olamide Zaccheaus or Julio Jones joining those three in 11 personnel. None of them remain on the roster for 2024.
The Eagles signed DeVante Parker in free agency to be their third wide receiver, but he ultimately retired. Parker spent his career as an outside wide receiver, so that seemed like an opportunity for Smith to play more in the slot. The Eagles later traded for Jahan Dotson, who has also spent most of his career on the outside. Smith might not line up in the slot as other predominant slot receivers, but he should line up more in the slot this season.
The Eagles brought in Kellen Moore to be their offensive coordinator. He generally runs a lot of plays, and his offense has largely depended on his personnel. One exciting prospect is the success of Moore’s top wide receivers.
CeeDee Lamb is typically the X receiver in two-receiver sets and plays in the slot in three-receiver sets, which is the best role for PPR scoring. In preparation for the season, Smith has been studying Lamb. Lamb was WR19 in 2021 and WR5 in 2022. Last season with the Los Angeles Chargers, Keenan Allen was typically the Z in base and then the slot in three-receiver sets, and he finished at WR8. Allen had been the X in base at times last season and had the X role in base in past seasons. That role, which Smith hopefully takes on, seems like a clear path to a top-10 season.
Smith is a dependable wide receiver who could be primed for a huge season, depending on his role in the new offense. The Eagles' other wide receivers could fill the slot role, and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore hasn’t had this good of a wide receiver duo before, so the offense will be a bit of a mystery. Regardless, Smith should have a high floor and a high ceiling.
Editor's note: For a more complete look at Smith this season, check out his full Player Profile.
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals (ADP: 4.07)
McBride was the TE4 from Week 6 on, averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game. Once McBride fully won the lead tight end role, he was a clear top-five tight end in both fantasy football and real life.
His primary competition his first two years was Zach Ertz, who is now with the Washington Commanders, so that’s less competition for McBride to worry about. The Cardinals drafted Tip Reiman in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but he will likely be used only as a run-blocking tight end in two-tight end sets. Reiman is listed at 273 pounds, making him among the heaviest tight ends in the league. C.J. Uzomah is the only tight end at that weight with any significant receiving production in the past five seasons, but he has consistently graded around replacement level as a receiver. The Cardinals' drafting of Reiman shouldn't hurt McBride's production.
The main concern for McBride is that Arizona also selected wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. in the draft. McBride was targeted on 25.9% of his routes last season. Harrison will be replacing Marquise Brown, who was targeted on 20.4% of his routes. Harrison is expected to see a 5-10 percentage-point increase compared to Brown, so at least some of those targets will likely come from McBride.
There are plenty of examples of elite wide receivers and tight ends thriving together in fantasy football. From the past three seasons, that includes Travis Kelce with Tyreek Hill, George Kittle with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel Sr., T.J. Hockenson with Justin Jefferson, and Rob Gronkowski with Mike Evans. This may help McBride because he won’t be double-covered as often, which is the one situation in which he has struggled more than most tight ends.
Kyler Murray will remain McBride's quarterback. McBride potentially wasn’t as productive early in his career because he didn’t have Murray for much of it. There was only one full game in 2022 with Murray at quarterback and McBride without Ertz at tight end. Murray didn’t return to the starting role until Week 10 of last season, and McBride’s fantasy production per game increased to 14.9 points per game with him at the helm. No tight end averaged that many points per game over the entire season last year.
McBride is capable of finishing as the overall TE1 this season if he simply keeps playing as well as he did in 2023 with Murray at quarterback. The only concerns are how many targets Harrison Jr. will take away from him and that McBride’s great play has come on a relatively small sample size.
Editor's note: For a more complete look at McBride this season, check out his full player profile.
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