2021 Fantasy Football Season Recap: How to leverage PFF routes run in NFL free agency and wild-card weekend DFS

Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and chasing target volume has always been a winning strategy — especially in PPR leagues. PFF premium stats offers proprietary data that goes well beyond the box score, including routes run for every player on the depth chart. 

Click here for more PFF tools:

Rankings & Projections | WR/CB Matchup Chart | NFL & NCAA Betting Dashboards | NFL Player Props tool | NFL & NCAA Power Rankings

Targeting players who run a high percentage of routes is a good strategy for identifying breakout candidates, beatable player props, DFS targets and players to prioritize in the 2022 fantasy football rankings. 

This report will look at recent rates of routes run per dropback compared to larger samples to find sleeper running backs, wide receivers and tight ends who are garnering more or less opportunities in the passing game heading into the playoffs/next season. 

Injuries are piling up to players like Darrel Williams, Cyril Grayson, James Conner and Jonathan Ward heading into the NFL playoffs, opening the door for other players to step up. 

Players leaving in 2022 free agency, like Allen Robinson II, Mike Williams and Michael Gallup, will also create space for ancillary pieces to take on bigger roles in 2022. 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Rate of routes run per dropback | Week 18

Cedrick Wilson has been an absolute monster filling in for Michael Gallup, commanding at least five targets in each of his last six starts. He capped off his stellar 2021 season by going for 119 yards and two touchdowns in Week 18.

Wilson’s high-end play is sure to make him a factor in DFS playoffs and in real-life roster construction for the Dallas Cowboys. The San Francisco 49ers rank 29th in passer rating and 25th in catches allowed to slot WRs this season. 

Both he and Gallup are free agents next season, making it unlikely both return to Big D.

Without Emmanuel Sanders in Week 18, Gabriel Davis ran a route on 96% of Josh Allen‘s dropbacks, commanded 13 targets and ran more routes than Stefon Diggs for the second straight week. 

However, Davis finished with just three catches for 39 yards, as only eight of his 13 targets were deemed catchable. He was also credited with three drops. Woof. 

Mistakes aside, the second-year wide receiver is a surefire bet to a breakout in his third season with Sanders a 2022 impending free agent. It will be interesting to see if Buffalo opts to use Davis over Sanders in the playoffs against the New England Patriots even if the veteran is healthy.

Amon-Ra St. Brown will not be denied. The Day 3 rookie silenced the haters in Week 18 by continuing his scorching streak of fantasy production since Week 13.

St. Brown commanded a 31% target share en route to eight catches for 109 yards plus a touchdown. The first-year WR has a 33% target share in his past six games — 11 per game. 

Related content for you:

Fantasy Football Week 18 Recap: Immediate takeaways & analysis for every game via Nathan Jahnke

Doubters will point to ASB’s lack of competition as the rationale behind his production, and there is a semblance of truth to that. His target share wouldn’t be as high if T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift were playing at full speed. 

The fact he is delivering so consistently as a rookie makes him look like a future star. Let’s also not overlook the fact that St. Brown had a stretch of games earlier in the season when he led the team with a 22% target share (Weeks 4-6) with Hockenson and Swift healthy.