• The New York Giants select Michigan's J.J. McCarthy: At this point, the Daniel Jones contract is a sunk cost, so the Giants try their luck with the next-best quarterback prospect.
• The Minnesota Vikings stay put and draft a quarterback: From an analytical standpoint, packaging two first-round picks to move up for Jayden Daniels or McCarthy is not worth it. So, the Vikings use their first-round picks to select a defensive lineman at No. 11 and then take a swing at a quarterback at No. 23.
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It’s hard for NFL teams to “beat” the draft, but it is very easy for them to make the same mistakes over and over again. But what if we lived in a world where teams avoided those missteps?
Armed with our analytical knowledge about the draft, Arif Hasan’s consensus big board and various scouting reports, I will try to create such a world, constructing a mock draft that reflects how teams should approach their picks.
Here are a few rules for a rational, analytically sound draft:
• Given that the Jimmy Johnson chart still determines the trade market, trading up to the top of the draft is almost always wrong. The small number of prospects who might be worth it in those spots probably shouldn't be for sale to begin with, as is the case in this year’s draft. You won’t find many trades in my draft, as I find it challenging to justify them when one side doesn't benefit.
• You are not better at evaluating prospects than other teams. Don’t reach for a player just because you think you are.
• There is rarely a reason to forego using a high draft pick on a player at a premium position. Drafting those players is the only way to build significant surplus value.
• Don’t draft for needs with your high draft picks. It's great to combine need and value, but letting a need fuel a draft decision is the most frequent mistake teams make outside of breaking the prior two rules. Simply put, the best time to fill a need is before the whole world knows it’s a need.
1. Chicago Bears: QB Caleb Williams, USC
This is a no-brainer. The Bears have needed a quarterback for a long, long time, so they select the best quarterback prospect in the draft.
2. Washington Commanders: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
It's a similar no-brainer. The Commanders pair Kliff Kingsbury with the second-best quarterback prospect in the draft. Maye even has experience in an Air Raid system if Kingsbury wants to return to that.
3. New England Patriots: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
This is where things start to get difficult. The Patriots have no idea whether they will pick this high again in 2025, and we don’t know much about next year’s quarterback class. On the other hand, the elite quarterback prospects are gone at this point, and I believe the current Patriots roster would struggle to support J.J. McCarthy or Jayden Daniels.
To trade down, they would have to find someone hoping to move up. But in my “what would I do” world, that’s not worth the price for any other team. So, the Patriots take Jayden Daniels.
May they quickly turn around their supporting cast on offense.
4. Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Things are getting easier again, as the Cardinals select the best non-quarterback prospect in the draft.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: WR Malik Nabers, LSU
When need meets board value and positional value, it’s an easy decision.
6. New York Giants: QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
The Daniel Jones contract is a sunk cost at this point, so the Giants try their luck with the next-best quarterback prospect.
7. Tennessee Titans: T Joe Alt, Notre Dame
The justification for many of the upcoming picks will be just like this: Joe Alt is the best remaining player on the board and plays a premium position. The bonus here is that the Titans desperately need an offensive tackle.
8. Atlanta Falcons: EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama
I considered selecting Rome Odunze here, as he is the best remaining prospect, but I ultimately have the Falcons taking Dallas Turner. The Falcons might be a pass-rusher away from dominating their weak division, and a young edge rusher with potential is never a bad bet long-term.
Add that Turner fits within defensive coordinator Raheem Morris' scheme, and we have a reasonable pick here. That said, the Falcons wouldn’t go wrong with Odunze in this spot, either.
9. Chicago Bears: WR Rome Odunze, Washington
Think of Patrick Mahomes with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Josh Allen with Stefon Diggs, Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Jalen Hurts with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, Tua Tagovailoa with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Brock Purdy with all of the 49ers' weapons and Justin Herbert with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
What do these young quarterbacks have in common? They absolutely fulfilled their potential.
Here is a list of quarterbacks who haven't benefited from a top-tier weapon (or weapons) in the passing game: Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert when Allen and Williams were out with injuries.
You get the point.
The Bears will want Caleb Williams to join the first group, not the second one. Rome Odunze is an easy choice at this spot, no matter what you think about D.J. Moore.
10. New York Jets: T Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State
With the three best wide receivers off the board, the Jets select the best available offensive tackle. The best time for a team to pick a good offensive tackle is when it doesn't need one, and who knows, this team might need him sooner rather than later.
11. Minnesota Vikings: DI Byron Murphy II, Texas
The Vikings pass on a quarterback here, even though we're living in a world where Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. will be selected with the following two picks. The key to this decision is respecting the uncertainty of the gap between the remaining quarterbacks in the draft.
So, the Vikings select the best interior defender in the class. As defensive tackles become increasingly expensive on the market, this is an extremely valuable pick.
12. Denver Broncos: QB Bo Nix, Oregon
Nix is not as good a football player as other players who are still on the board, so some will call this a reach. But, like it or not, this is just the reality of the NFL.
Successful reclamation projects such as Baker Mayfield and Ryan Tannehill make certain teams look competent, but they are actually bad things from a roster-building standpoint, as you end up giving those quarterbacks an expensive contract after only one year of solid play.
Betting on being good enough to support a quarterback like Bo Nix is simply the better bet, given how the quarterback market and the rookie wage scale work. If it pans out, teams can reap the benefits for four years instead of only one.
You can hate this pick as much as you want. Unfortunately, this is the only way to be serious about the draft.
13. Las Vegas Raiders: QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
See above. There is a 90% chance this fails. While this might sound bad, it’s still better than the recent Raiders baseline.
14. New Orleans Saints: EDGE Laiatu Latu, UCLA
Offensive tackle is another option here, but at the end of the day, Laiatu Latu is the best remaining prospect at a premium position. One of the keys to the draft is to just not galaxy-brain yourself into passing on these picks, though I am betting against the injury concerns here.
15. Indianapolis Colts: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
This was not an easy decision, but here is the rationale: I already made it clear how important a truly elite weapon is for the development of a young quarterback. With the divisional-rival Texans also loading up the receiving room, it’s time for the Colts to be more like a Houston and less like a Jacksonville.
This means that the Colts essentially get to choose between Brock Bowers and Brian Thomas Jr. with this pick. Bowers is a top-five non-quarterback prospect, so this beats out the positional value advantage of a wide receiver who currently ranks 19th on the consensus board and 25th on the PFF big board.
There is simply more uncertainty about Thomas becoming a good NFL player than there is about Brock Bowers becoming a good NFL player. We also consider the upside that the second contract would become a bargain if Bowers became a top tight end who can create mismatches that a whole offense can revolve around.
This is the first spot where the team situation fits drafting a tight end in the first round, and the alternatives are weak enough for Bowers to become the most valuable option.
16. Seattle Seahawks: T Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
It’s analytically sound to send a nasty run-blocker to the city where the only Beast Quake in history was recorded on seismographs. He is also the best remaining player at a premium position.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
I have already touched on the importance of elite weapons for young quarterbacks, and I used the Jaguars as a negative example. Did you know the Jags have drafted two wide receivers since 2021, the same draft they received a gift named Trevor Lawrence? Did you know that both of these receivers were drafted in the sixth round and that one of them didn’t even make the 53-man roster?
In this mock draft, the Jaguars try to right their wrongs from the past.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: T JC Latham, Alabama
The Bengals do the smart thing and keep trying to help Joe Burrow succeed in the mid-term future. This would have been a non-trivial decision had Brian Thomas Jr. still been on the board, but the Jaguars grabbed him one pick earlier, so Latham is the easy pick.
19. Los Angeles Rams: EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State
The Rams' pass rush was obviously dealt a huge blow with Aaron Donald’s retirement. This makes it tempting to select Jer’Zhan Newton to replace a 3-tech with a 3-tech, but according to the consensus, Verse is the better football player, so the Rams shifted pass-rushing strength from the interior to the exterior. Both philosophies are equally valid, so the Rams simply take the better prospect.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
The cornerback position has recently taken a hit. It isn’t a Tier 1 premium position anymore, and maybe it never was. The market hasn’t really moved since Jalen Ramsey got his extension with the Rams back in 2020, and good cornerbacks are now available for reasonable prices.
In a world where teams operate rationally, this causes the best cornerback in the draft to fall to Pick 20 and the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that now features a young, promising cornerback duo of Quinyon Mitchell and Joey Porter Jr.
21. Miami Dolphins: DI Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois
Newton is 21st on the consensus board, and the Dolphins need an interior pass rush. This is a natural fit and a good value.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
Arnold could very well be the best cornerback in the draft, so it’s no surprise that he comes off the board just after Mitchell.
23. Minnesota Vikings: QB Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
This is where I’m running into serious problems. In a “what would I do” world, the trade with Texans makes zero sense for the Vikings, as the trade is bad in a vacuum, and analytically speaking, it can only be defended if it’s an intermediate trade to gain more ammunition on the Jimmy Johnson trade chart.
However, in my world, any trade-up in accordance with that chart is a bad bet, and the two quarterbacks in this draft who could be worth it (Caleb Williams and Drake Maye) are not for sale. Therefore, the Vikings should still own a Day 2 pick and could use that to select Spencer Rattler at a reasonable spot.
However, the trade happened, and this is the only Vikings pick before No. 108.
It’s not my fault the Vikings own this pick — my hands are tied if I’m being serious about the draft. At least the Vikings have the supporting cast on offense and competent coaching to actually make this work. Also, this is still a better use of resources than packaging No. 11, No. 23 and additional future draft capital to go up into the top five for Jayden Daniels or J.J. McCarthy.
Wait till next year, you say? The Vikings are not a bad team, so one would hardly expect them to own a high pick this time next year, even if they do play Sam Darnold at quarterback.
And in a “what would I do” world, there is a good chance they wouldn’t have access to a significantly better quarterback prospect next year, as teams would select them before the Vikings are on the clock. Even if the opportunity still comes up next year or the year after, they could still pick another quarterback if this one didn’t work out.
The other issue of going into the season with Sam Darnold as the starting quarterback is that there is no good outcome. Even if Sam Darnold plays fairly well — like Baker Mayfield last year — the Vikings still wouldn’t be a serious contender. However, Darnold still has the draft pedigree and enough believers in the NFL that this would most likely force the Vikings to pay him $40 million per year, negating the likely reason why he played well in the first place (resources to field a strong supporting cast). The alternative is that they decide to let him leave after that one year of good play, which means they would head into next year’s draft with the same scenario as this year.
That’s why we make the unpopular decision now and face the reality of how roster building in the NFL works.
24. Dallas Cowboys: T Troy Fautanu, Washington
The Cowboys select the best remaining potential offensive tackle. If he kicks inside to guard, this won’t hurt the Cowboys, either.
25. Green Bay Packers: T Amarius Mims, Georgia
This is just another case of need meeting positional value and board value.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas
Chris Godwin is slated to be a free agent next March, and Mike Evans is going into his age-31 season. Again, the best time to select a player at a premium position is before the team has a desperate need.
27. Arizona Cardinals: EDGE Chop Robinson, Penn State
The Cardinals are desperate for talent at almost any position, so taking the best remaining edge rusher at board value is always a good bet. There is a significant drop-off of edge talent after the end of the first round, so taking an edge rusher makes the most sense here for the Cardinals.
28. Buffalo Bills: WR Xavier Worthy, Texas
Worthy will not be the only receiver the Bills pick during this draft. What can I say? He is fast, and Josh Allen can throw it far. Sometimes, football is simple.
29. Detroit Lions: CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
The Lions signed Carlton Davis for one year, but this does not mean they couldn’t use another cornerback. Some think DeJean lacks the hip fluidity to be a true lock-down cornerback in the NFL, in which case, he could still help the Lions at safety.
30. Baltimore Ravens: T Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
The Ravens traded Morgan Moses away, so their future at offensive tackle is uncertain. Tyler Guyton might change that.
31. San Francisco 49ers: CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson
The 49ers will have a hard time repeating their offensive success from last year, so they try to mitigate the inevitable offensive regression by strengthening their defensive weakness at cornerback.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: EDGE Darius Robinson, Missouri
The choice was between Darius Robinson and Georgia wideout Ladd McConkey. I almost caught myself selfishly mocking a wide receiver to Patrick Mahomes in the first round, but the analytically sound move is to select the last remaining first-round caliber pass-rusher and take advantage of a deep wide receiver class on Day 2 of the draft.
Robinson can also line up inside, potentially creating a versatile partnership with Chris Jones. Steve Spagnuolo would be thrilled to take advantage of that.
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