The 2024 NFL Draft is fast approaching. The PFF big board is live, mock draft season is in full swing and the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine has wrapped up.
This year's draft presents an exciting quarterback class chock full of big names. USC's Caleb Williams headlines the group as one of the nation's premier playmakers, but North Carolina's Drake Maye, LSU's Jayden Daniels, Michigan's J.J. McCarthy and Oregon's Bo Nix have all been taken in the first round of recent mock drafts.
Let's look at Tulane‘s Michael Pratt, who led the Green Wave to the AAC championship in his last two seasons.
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SCOUTING SUMMARY
Pratt won't “wow” you with arm talent, but he does make up for that with clean fundamentals. His feet are light and his follow-through is consistent. After suffering a knee injury that kept him out three games in 2023, he did not return the same player. His velocity and power decreased when throwing, and his accuracy was off. His hands are small, which does cause some wobble in his throws.
At times, he demonstrates how to manipulate coverages, but his decision-making can still be a tad slow. He also is quicker to take off and run than he needs to be. When attacking the middle of the field, he can hit vertical (seam) and horizontal (dig) routes.
WINS ABOVE AVERAGE
WAA represents the number of wins a player is worth over an average college football player and is a metric that evaluators can utilize to assess performance. It combines how well a player performed in each facet of play (using PFF grades) and how valuable each facet is to winning football games. The result is a first-of-its-kind metric that allows for cross-positional valuation and predicts future value at the player and team levels.
HOW PRATT RANKS IN THE STABLE METRICS
The most stable facets of quarterback play are those with the biggest sample sizes — even though they intuitively seem “easier.” When projecting a quarterback’s future output, their performance from a clean pocket, on early downs and with no play action should be weighted heavily, and these are strong components when projecting PFF’s Wins Above Replacement metric. Good quarterbacks dominate these situations, while lesser quarterbacks rank near the bottom of the league. Negatively graded plays are also highly correlated from year to year, meaning the quarterback is largely in control of their negatives, while their positive plays may fluctuate due to supporting cast and play calling.
Compared to other players with PFF college data, Pratt’s metrics in the most predictive of data subsets are below par.
Pratt struggled in the stable areas of play throughout his career. His best year in college came in 2022 when he earned a 93.4 PFF grade and recorded 22 touchdowns on throws at or beyond the sticks.
While he doesn’t have the most lively arm, Pratt thrived targeting the intermediate level of the field, an area where many NFL quarterbacks struggle. Since 2018, he’s thrown for 2,801 yards and 20 touchdowns to that area of the field, both top-20 marks.
PRATT’S PROJECTIONS
In league-average circumstances, here are Pratt’s projections for yards per attempt and completion percentage as a rookie:
Let’s look at how Pratt does when we make his situation better. With a low pressure rate, high play-action rate and more down-the-field looks, things slightly improve.
Let’s also look at how Pratt does when we make the situation less favorable. With a high pressure rate and low play-action rate Pratt’s production takes a little bit of a hit.
BOTTOM LINE FROM PFF's 2024 NFL DRAFT GUIDE
Pratt's clean fundamentals and impressive touch throws make him an intriguing quarterback, even with smaller measurables. His arm strength limits his ability to push the ball vertically, but he has a good enough feel for the game to garner a potential starter label.
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