The 2024 NFL Draft is fast approaching. The PFF big board is live, mock draft season is in full swing and the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine has wrapped up.
This year's draft presents an exciting quarterback class chock full of big names. USC's Caleb Williams headlines the group as one of the nation's premier playmakers, but North Carolina's Drake Maye, LSU's Jayden Daniels, Michigan's J.J. McCarthy and Oregon's Bo Nix have all been taken in the first round of recent mock drafts.
Let's look at Notre Dame‘s Sam Hartman, who threw for 134 touchdowns during his career, the third-most in college football history.
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SCOUTING SUMMARY
Hartman's arm talent is well below average. His lack of arm strength requires his receivers to earn the kind of separation that just doesn't typically exist in the NFL. He has to put his entire body into throws beyond 45-50 yards, and when throwing off-platform, he does not have the upper body strength to put adequate velocity on passes.
He can be accurate when throwing in rhythm and on schedule, but even then, he is limited. Due to his lack of velocity, he cannot consistently attack the intermediate middle of the field.
WINS ABOVE AVERAGE
WAA represents the number of wins a player is worth over an average college football player and is a metric that evaluators can utilize to assess performance. It combines how well a player performed in each facet of play (using PFF grades) and how valuable each facet is to winning football games. The result is a first-of-its-kind metric that allows for cross-positional valuation and predicts future value at the player and team levels.
HOW HARTMAN RANKS IN THE STABLE METRICS
The most stable facets of quarterback play are those with the biggest sample sizes — even though they intuitively seem “easier.” When projecting a quarterback’s future output, their performance from a clean pocket, on early downs and with no play action should be weighted heavily, and these are strong components when projecting PFF’s Wins Above Replacement metric. Good quarterbacks dominate these situations, while lesser quarterbacks rank near the bottom of the league. Negatively graded plays are also highly correlated from year to year, meaning the quarterback is largely in control of their negatives, while their positive plays may fluctuate due to supporting cast and play calling.
Compared to other players with PFF college data, Hartman’s metrics in the most predictive of data subsets measured up very well.
While Hartman doesn’t have the arm strength to push the ball downfield, he played well when he was kept free from pressure. In 2023, he posted a 9.1% big-time throw rate and a 91.7 passing grade from a clean pocket, ninth and 20th among all college quarterbacks, respectively.
HARTMAN’S PROJECTIONS
In league-average circumstances, here are Hartman’s projections for yards per attempt and completion percentage as a rookie:
Let’s look at how Hartman does when we make his situation better. With a low pressure rate, high play-action rate and more down-the-field looks, things improve yet remain slightly below league average.
Let’s also look at how Hartman does when we make the situation less favorable. With a high pressure rate and low play-action rate, Hartman’s projections look similar to those within a league-average situation.
Hartman could benefit greatly from sitting and learning behind a vet early in his career.
BOTTOM LINE FROM PFF's 2024 NFL DRAFT GUIDE
Hartman is an experienced quarterback with some decent mobility, but overall, he lacks the arm strength to become a starter or preferred backup in the NFL.
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