AFC, NFC Championship Picks: Anytime touchdown bets

Powered by meaningful data: The PFF First Touchdown Finder uses early-game EPA to isolate fast-starting teams and likely first scorers.

Alongside everything you need to know: Surface the players who see early and red-zone opportunities, paired with defensive resistance and best available prices.

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Anytime touchdown bets are among the most popular markets in football, but they are often driven more by guesswork than data. PFF’s new First Touchdown Finder is designed to change that, using early-game efficiency, player usage and matchup context to identify the most actionable scoring opportunities each week.

TE Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

Using the new First Touchdown Finder, we can evaluate the first touchdown market from a more data-driven perspective. In the Broncos–Patriots matchup, Denver has struggled on scripted plays with minus-0.03 EPA per play, while New England has posted 0.11 EPA per play, giving the Patriots a clear edge to strike first.

That context sets up a strong opportunity for Hunter Henry against a Broncos defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in targets, yards and receptions allowed to tight ends. Henry also leads the Patriots in first-half red-zone targets, which further elevates his likelihood of finding the end zone first.

At +950, Henry to score the first touchdown stands out as a value play.

RB Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks

Walker ranks second among running backs in forced missed tackles this season. This is an area where the Rams’ defense has struggled, as the team ranks ninth in missed-tackle rate. That matchup becomes even more compelling given recent changes to Seattle’s backfield.

With bruising back Zach Charbonnet sidelined by an ACL injury, Walker is now positioned to handle the clear majority of the workload. Charbonnet had accounted for much of Seattle’s red-zone usage, opportunities that should now shift heavily toward Walker.

In a favorable matchup and with an expanded role, Walker is well-positioned to score in this championship game.