While an NFL season feels like a 16-game sprint to January, in reality, its many twists and turns more closely resemble a marathon. What teams look like in September often doesn’t resemble how they perform in December. While there is always value in taking a long view – and we attempt to during this quarterback strength-of-schedule series – visualizing what will work best in the near term is perhaps even more important. We need to pile up fantasy league wins, early and often, to be in an optimal stretch-run position.
Below we will make some short-term schedule judgments, and follow them up with a look deep into the foggy future of the 2017 season. (Keep up with all of QB Strength of Schedule Week here.)
September streaming
Whether we plan on a streaming approach to fantasy quarterbacks, or simply want to help ensure a fast start before reconfiguring our rosters, it’s worth checking out early-season matchups. While a full offseason’s worth of alterations have been made to defenses, we still have the clearest picture of what passers will be up against during the early weeks of the season, before injury and depth-chart turmoil occurs.
The following quarterbacks have the most appealing early-season schedules.
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals (@DET, @IND, DAL, SF)
The Cardinals open with indoor road games against a pair of suspect defenses. The Lions and Colts can keep up on offense as well, raising the ceiling on both matchups. The Cowboys’ slow-paced run-based offense is a concern for Arizona’s home opener, but 2016’s fifth-highest-graded run defense at least stands a chance of slowing them. A visit from the 49ers’ under-construction defense rounds out a tasty opening month for Palmer and the Cardinals’ offense.
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (IND, WAS, @SF, @DAL)
If there will be any fantasy viability for Goff this season, it almost certainly will come in September, before the Rams’ schedule turns into a minefield. The Colts will set a brisk scoreboard pace in Los Angeles’ home opener, while their defensive back-seven features talent gaps and general inexperience. The Redskins and 49ers follow, and neither have daunting defenses. A less exciting road game in Dallas closes the first month and, likely, Goff’s usefulness.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (@GB, SF, @TEN, IND)
While Wilson is a relative bargain, his ADP disqualifies him as streaming option. His soft opening month warrants mentioning, however. Wilson started slowly each of the last two years, and has twice led the league in per-game fantasy scoring differential from the first half of the season to the second. Potential shootouts with the Packers and Colts, in addition to facing questionable defenses in the 49ers and Titans, should help Wilson to his best start as a pro.
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (@TEN, NYJ, @WAS)
The Raiders have a rough schedule, but it’s worth noting the potholes don’t begin until Week 4 in Denver. They open in Tennessee, where the Titans now have the offensive firepower to keep up on the scoreboard and a still-questionable secondary. The Jets’ rolling dumpster fire is on the west coast to pad Oakland’s stats in Week 2, and the Raiders’ meeting with the Redskins should have a top-three over/under in Week 3. Matchups turn ugly after that, unfortunately.
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (TB, @LAC, @NYJ, NO, TEN, @ATL, NYJ)
Not all of Tannehill’s early-season matchups are attractive – visiting the Chargers won’t be fun – but even the non-cupcakes have shootout potential. Two games with the zombie Jets, who still should have a decent enough run defense to keep Tannehill’s arm busy, are the jewels here. However, the Saints at home and the Falcons in a dome bring an elevated point-scoring expectation. Visits from the Buccaneers and Titans aren’t standout matchups, but neither team projects to have a prohibitive pass defense.
Wait until October
Drafting a late-round quarterback who wastes a bench spot in September because you wouldn’t dare start him against a tough defense is a waste of resources. Almost as frustrating is spending significant draft capital on a passer who you begrudgingly start because of the cost to acquire him. A quick look at early-season schedules can help us avoid these frustrating decisions, or at least help us break ties in favor of those with an easier road.
Tom Savage/Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (JAX, @CIN, @NE, TEN, KC)
While few are advocating for the Texans passing game as a fantasy value, two-QB league enthusiasts, and those picking backups in best-ball leagues, will want to pay attention. The Jaguars arguably possess top-five talent on defense. Back-to-back road games in Cincinnati and New England are far from ideal. The Titans have a questionable back-end, but it’s tough to call them an easy mark for the inexperienced Savage or Watson. The Chiefs are just icing on an unpalatable cake.
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (OAK, @JAX, SEA, @HOU)
During his first two seasons, Mariota averaged 27 points per game against top-half pass defenses and 15 versus bottom half. He has better weapons and almost certainly will continue improving in his third season, yet the Titans will still be a run-heavy offense. Either way, he has a rocky first month from a schedule perspective. Things lighten up considerably after four weeks, so we shouldn’t panic if Tennessee’s upgraded passing attack gets off to a slow start.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (NYG, @DEN, @ARZ, LAR)
The Giants, who allowed per-game averages of only 61 plays (seventh-fewest) and 15 points (second-fewest) during their final eight regular season games in 2016, are a bad season-opening draw. Going to Denver the following week could be even worse. A pair of NFC West games – at Arizona and home against the Rams – are not as daunting, but no walk in the park either.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (@WAS, @KC, NYG, @LAC, ARZ, @CAR)
Wentz had better get off to a good start in Washington, because things get ugly until he meets the Redskins again in Week 7. Going to Kansas City is never fun, especially for the Chiefs’ home opener. The Giants owned Wentz last season (66.4 passer rating in two starts). Visiting the Chargers’ excellent cornerbacks and strong pass rush won’t be fun. He closes out the gauntlet with the Cardinals and a trip to Carolina.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (@MIN, NE, @CAR, @MIA, BYE)
Avoiding Brees due to his schedule is silly, as he has been a model of productive consistency. However, the Saints offense is better at home, where they don’t play their second game until Week 6. A trip to face the Vikings in the season opener isn’t ideal, and we’ve seen Brees fizzle in Carolina (Week 3). They do get the Patriots at home in what will almost certainly be a shootout – not that New England’s pass defense isn’t strong. If we hear “Brees is slowing down” narratives in mid-October, it’s time to buy.
Playoff cupcakes and landmines
If projecting the first month of the season is difficult, then judging fantasy playoff schedules in June is downright Quixotic. Still, by concentrating on the extremes – with the Seahawks and Broncos on one side, and Jets and Lions on the other – we can generate a few interesting takeaways. Of course, Von Miller and Chris Harris could get hurt and make worrying about Andrew Luck’s Week 15 game overly ambitious. Then again, Luck could just as easily get hurt – so let’s go ahead and look ahead anyway.
Paxton Lynch, Denver Broncos (NYJ, @IND, @WAS)
If we believe Lynch eventually takes over as Broncos starter, it’s worth knowing his late-season schedule looks good. During the Week 13, they welcome the Jets – who conceivably could be five losses away from a winless season if their plan comes to fruition. The next two weeks feature trips to Indianapolis and Washington. Even if those defenses are better than expected, the weather should be preferable to Denver’s.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (NO, @TB, @NO)
The Falcons’ first-place schedule brings with it a trip to Seattle, and they have to face the Patriots, Vikings, and Panthers twice (although one is during Week 17). The fantasy playoff weeks, however, feature two indoor matchups with the Saints. Last season their games with New Orleans netted a 73.5 total point average and 41.5 for the Falcons. A trip to Tampa Bay is sandwiched in between. Ryan’s offense scored 43 points there last year in a game that totaled 71 points.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (@ATL, NYJ, ATL)
Brees will be on the opposite sideline during the Falcons’ two prospective dome shootouts with the Saints. If they are anything like last year, his fantasy investors will have a competitive advantage during the playoffs. Those games bookend a visit to New Orleans from the Jets, who almost certainly will be fully tanked by Week 15 and forking over yards and touchdowns by the truckload.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (@NYG, @OAK, SEA)
The Cowboys begin the season with an unattractive schedule and close it out the same way. A trip to New York to face the Giants leads off the fantasy playoffs, followed by another road game in the Black Hole. The first will likely be harder than the second, but if the Raiders’ young secondary will have the full season to gel. Week 16 brings the Seahawks to Dallas, and starting Prescott in fantasy Super Bowls will not be a comfortable decision.
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (SEA, HOU, @SF)
Investing in Bortles is a tough sell with the new front office seemingly committed to hiding him and riding the team’s defense and running game. Even if he becomes a viable fantasy option by playoff time, back-to-back home games against the Seahawks and Texans likely ensures we would be looking for an alternative. He does get a game in San Francisco in Week 16, but advancing to that point in the playoffs will be a tall task with Bortles.
Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (@LAC, ARZ, DEN)
Cousins appears to be one of the better draft values, but his work is cut out for him during the fantasy playoffs. The Chargers on the road will likely sound more daunting by Week 14 than it does now. Two home games close out Cousins’ fantasy season, where the mid-Atlantic December weather is fickle. The Cardinals are typically tough on quarterbacks, and the Broncos during fantasy Super Bowl week is far from what we’re looking for.
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