Jonathan 

Taylor

As a runner, he has been elite when everything is going right. If he can follow his point of attack, if the play is perfectly blocked, or if he only has to face seven players in the box, he’s ranked in the 95th percentile or better of running backs despite being injured on and off for two of the last three years. When things aren’t going his way, he’s below average compared to other running backs. His ability to become the league’s leading rusher again will depend on the situation going right.

The Colts had the second-highest rate of running zone plays last season, and the Eagles were above average at zone rate when Steichen was coach. Taylor has averaged 5.2 yards per carry on zone runs compared to 4.5 against gap the last three years, so Steichen’s run scheme matches Taylor's strengths. They also had the third-highest rate of using 11 personnel. Only 4% of plays out of 11 personnel faced eight-man boxes outside of the red zone last season, so this should help Taylor in avoiding eight-man boxes.

Taylor has been elite when the situation is in his favor, and the Colts are uniquely suited to helping Taylor succeed. If he’s back to 100%, he’s capable of finishing as the RB1 again, but there is a lot of risk of something not going perfect.