Dalton 

Kincaid

•

Of the 26 tight ends with 300 or more routes as a rookie in the last 15 years, Kincaid’s 68.7 grade ranks 11th best, higher than George Kittle, Trey McBride, T.J. Hockenson and Evan Engram. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews didn’t reach 300 routes as a rookie while Kincaid reached 488 — the fifth-most by a rookie. Similarly, Kincaid’s 1.46 yards per route run rank ninth best. The correlation between rookie success and future success at tight end isn’t very high, but the list of tight ends who reached 300 routes as a rookie are generally the tight ends who become fantasy stars.

•

Knox is the big concern, especially in terms of how he will impact Kincaid’s route snap percentage — 74.1% won’t cut it for a starting fantasy tight end and that percentage was smaller last season when Knox was healthy. Similarly, Kincaid's end zone target share needs to increase. Knox had fantasy value in past years because he would score a lot of touchdowns, and ideally those touchdowns would be going to Kincaid. There haven’t been any great indications by coaches on if or how this might change for this season.

•

Projecting a tight end in his second season is often like projecting a running back or wide receiver as a rookie. There can be a lot of upside mixed with a lot of risk. The upside is undeniable, but there is also a decent possibility Knox will continue cutting into Kincaid’s pass routes, ultimately limiting that upside.