Christian 

Kirk

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In 2022, he was further helped by a career-high eight touchdowns, most of which came when the Jacksonville Jaguars were within 10 yards of scoring. Kirk was targeted on eight of 35 routes in those situations that year, leading to six touchdowns. Marvin Jones Jr. and Zay Jones were the outside wide receiver options that year. Last season, he was only targeted on two of 15 routes while Calvin Ridley ended up taking most of those targets. This was the main reason for his decline in fantasy points per game in 2023.

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Gabe Davis has scored six-to-seven touchdowns each season. At times these come from big plays, but he’s also scored a number of times when the Bills were within 10 yards of scoring, including three of his seven touchdowns from last season. Brian Thomas Jr. scored 17 touchdowns in college last season, and both players are bigger and taller than Ridley. There is a chance Kirk will be the last option Trevor Lawrence looks at when the team is close to scoring, so Kirk could be restricted to only scoring touchdowns on longer plays like he did last season.

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Kirk should be a fantasy starter this season, but the upside might not be there for him to reach his 2022 heights. The new outside receivers might not take many targets from Kirk and could even lead to more targets, but if they do one thing right, it’s scoring touchdowns. This makes it pretty unlikely Kirk finishes among the top-24 wide receivers.