CeeDee

Lamb

Lamb had an elite 30.3% target share last season, which could be even higher this season. The Dallas Cowboys let go of Michael Gallup and replaced him with sixth-round rookie Ryan Flournoy. Outside of that, the wide receiver depth chart remains the same. Dallas also lost Tony Pollard in free agency, and he finished eighth among running backs with 55 receptions while bringing back Ezekiel Elliott, who will be 29 years old by the start of the season. These changes are likely negligible to Lamb’s target share, but if anything, it’s pointing to more targets and not less.

Lamb keeps Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott as his head coach and quarterback as he’s had throughout his career. McCarthy took over as offensive playcaller last season, which led to a big shift in the team's passing rate over expected, the target rate to wide receivers and plays with three wide receivers on the field, all of which helped Lamb. The continuity at head coach and quarterback play separates Lamb from Justin Jefferson, who lost Kirk Cousins.

Lamb was WR1 in both total points and points per game last year. Anyone who puts up excellent numbers like Lamb will have to deal with regression, but his age, consistency at coach and quarterback, and lack of competition for targets can help combat the regression. The only reason he should be picked second overall instead of first is the gap between Christian McCaffrey and the rest of the running backs is wider than Lamb and the rest of the wide receivers.