• Brock Purdy has been one of the best in football despite a depleted cast: His 5.2% big-time throw rate is just 0.3 percentage points below his 2023 clip, while his 2.6% turnover-worthy play rate is 0.6 percentage points better than his mark last season.
• The 49ers defense has been relatively solid: The 49ers' pass defense has been one of the best in the league, ranking fourth with an average of -0.071 EPA per play.
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
Near the top of PFF’s Power Rankings through Week 7 are the San Francisco 49ers — a shock to many.
At 3-4, their record doesn’t reflect preseason expectations — or that they were Super Bowl participants a mere eight months ago. But the 49ers still sit as PFF's third-ranked team. Why is that?
Quarterback Play
It’s the most important position in football, and the 49ers currently have a top-five quarterback by PFF grade. Brock Purdy has earned an 83.3 PFF overall grade through seven weeks, going 138-of-216 for 1,841 yards with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. Those touchdown-to-interception ratios don’t look too impressive, but his 5.2% big-time throw rate is just 0.3 percentage points below his 2023 clip, while his 2.6% turnover-worthy play rate is 0.6 percentage points better than his mark last season.
Offensive Success
San Francisco's offense is generating 0.062 expected points added per play, ranking sixth in the NFL. It’s lower than the 0.168 EPA per play they averaged in the 2023 regular season, but this is still one of the best offenses in football. That’s true when you look at the 49ers as a passing offense — where they rank eighth in the league with a 0.124 EPA per play average — and when they run the ball — where their -0.023 EPA per play average slots in at 11th.
And they have done all this without key players at various points in the season.
Players Returning From Injury
The 49ers have been without three of their top four skill-position players on offense at times throughout the first seven weeks of the season — Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.
McCaffrey has yet to feature in 2024. Kittle and Samuel were both back on the practice field this past week, albeit in a limited capacity, and McCaffrey is expected to return during the team's bye week, so they should be healthier at those spots in the second half of the season.
The 49ers did just lose wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk to a season-ending knee injury, but that is somewhat canceled out by the emergence of Jauan Jennings, who ranks third in the NFL with an average of 2.75 yards per route run and could return from injury this week.
All of that to say, the 49ers have been unlucky with injuries this season but have still been successful on offense. There is reason to believe things will improve on the injury front soon.
The Defense is Better Than Narrative Suggests
The narrative so far this season has been that the 49ers defense hasn’t been good, and while they aren’t a top five defense in football right now, the unit is far from a liability.
The 49ers have allowed -0.059 EPA per play through seven weeks, which ranks 13th best in the NFL. For context, in 2023 they ranked eighth at -0.065 EPA per play. The defense is performing just marginally worse than it did a year ago, when the team went to the Super Bowl.
San Francisco has had had its struggles against the run though, ranking 10th-worst in the league by allowing -0.040 EPA per play when opposing teams run the ball. But that’s no different from last year, when the team ranked eighth-worst at -0.046 EPA per play. Meanwhile, the 49ers' pass defense has been one of the best in the league, ranking fourth with an average of -0.071 EPA per play.
Betting Market Agrees
If it seems odd that the 49ers are still considered one of the best teams in the NFL by us here at PFF, consider that betting markets still very much agree that they are one of the favorites to lift the Vince Lombardi trophy. At +850, they currently rank fourth in betting odds, trailing only the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions.
While the 49ers have started the season 3-4, there’s plenty of reason to expect them to continue to be one of the best teams in the NFL as we approach the second half of the season — and every chance that they will once again find themselves in the NFC Championship game in January.
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